Weak Surface Low in Western GOM - Yellow-20% (Is 94L)

#81 Postby **BigB0882** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:07 am

I am visiting my parents in Crockett, TX. Is there any chance this will come on shore and bring some much needed rain to this area? I'd prefer a sunny day around the pool but I think they need the rain more.

Map for reference:

http://www.google.com/imgres?q=crockett ... YDQ&zoom=1

#82 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 12:15 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I am visiting my parents in Crockett, TX. Is there any chance this will come on shore and bring some much needed rain to this area? I'd prefer a sunny day around the pool but I think they need the rain more.

Map for reference:

http://www.google.com/imgres?q=crockett ... YDQ&zoom=1

If we get it here in Houston, your p's in Crockett should get it too. If this develops as some are currently thinking we will probably see widespread rains of at least 1" with some totals up to 5" being called for by some. I haven't looked at it yet today so what I am saying is coming from other trusted sources. Rains probably won't start till at least Saturday night if not sometime on Sunday. Local OCM are calling for 60% chance for Sunday and Monday.

#83 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 12:18 pm

Ntxw wrote:Continues to look pretty unorganized this morning. As long as EPAC system continues to develop looks unlikely anything substantial will happen in the near future with this feature.

http://i40.tinypic.com/23jle0l.gif]

First glance thoughts. I can see the moisture surging N and NW, but I have to agree with your assessment at this point. Anything that may develop in the NW GOM would be sheared also unless there is more retrograding of the entire pattern in the next 48 hours.

#84 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 12:50 pm

Up to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY
SUNDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND AND ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

#85 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 1:00 pm

No big surpise, the trough seems to be tightening up to the SSE of Brownsville Tx. and models hinting that it will head north.

I wonder if it will become an Invest?

#86 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 1:03 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I am visiting my parents in Crockett, TX. Is there any chance this will come on shore and bring some much needed rain to this area? I'd prefer a sunny day around the pool but I think they need the rain more.

Map for reference:

http://www.google.com/imgres?q=crockett ... YDQ&zoom=1

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY
SUNDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND AND ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Aric Dunn · #87 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 1:13 pm

some indication of a weak low forming sse of Brownsville. could try to rapidly spin up doing multiple burst then shear blow it off

and I really dont like the new animator the nasa sites are using.. they are no good.

hurricanekid416 · #88 Postby **hurricanekid416** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 1:30 pm

What is the chance it becomes a tropical storm

hurricanekid416 · #89 Postby **hurricanekid416** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 1:37 pm

Also when will an invest get designated

#90 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 1:44 pm

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

#91 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 2:10 pm

It has been designated as invest 94L. Go here to continue the discussion.

Weak Surface Low in Western GOM - Yellow-20% (Is 94L)

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Re: Weak Surface Low in SW GOM - Yellow-20%

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Re: Weak Surface Low in SW GOM - Yellow-20%

Re: Weak Surface Low in Western GOM - Yellow-20% (Is 94L)

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