Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This setup honestly has me concerned. Are there any forecasted inhibiting factors, such as dry air or wind shear, that might hopefully keep this one in check strength wise?

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: agree...of it sticks to the BOC solution then the trof will not take it..Good thing is if it does go NE the great GFS only has a 1007mb TS if that...

The wind shear as shown by the 12Z GFS is quite low in the Gulf as shown by image below that shows the shear 141 hours from now. Could see a stronger system than what the GFS is currently showing if a system makes it into the Gulf later this week.

[ROCK]

Maybe so GCane...the CMC only suggests a 997mb TS while the FiM only has a moderate TS...I do t put much stock with the GFS this year as I would in years past...after all it was the FiM and a NAVGEM who picked up on this first...

[Hurricaneman]

The track will be dependent on where this is in 5 days, if its the western tip of the Yucatan this will head for Texas, if the central Yucatan then it will head to the Panhandle of Florida to New Orleans, but if it is on the eastern tip of the Yucatan or the channel then the Florida Peninsula needs to pay attention to this based on the Ridge\Trough position

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dean4Storms]

If there was any shear it would be from the SW and with the system moving NE it might dampen the effect of the shear. However it could entrain dry air from the front moving off the TX Coast in this scenario and this might be what the GFS is seeing that keeps it in check.

[Rgv20]

Some of the 0zGFS/EnKF Ensembles just go crazy with the disturbance in the GOM! Of the 20 members 6 of them show a well organize Tropical system in 6 to 7 days and as far I can see at least 2 of them have a weak system in the BOC.



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[Rgv20]

While the operational 0zECMWF is rather quiet with this disturbance the 0zEMCWF Ensembles are showing some scenarios similar to the CMC, NAVGEM, and GFS. The Euro Ensembles target anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to the BOC....Like I said fun times ahead!

The purple-pinkish colors represent uncertainty at the Sea Level Pressure within the Ensemble members.



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[cycloneye]

12z GEM says hello to South Texas as a hurricane.

[Dean4Storms]

We've had unbelievable amounts of heavy rain this summer here in the Panhandle, a Tropical Storm would be sufficient in falling a good number of tree's! Not good at all if this verifies!

[ROCK]

Yep...CMC not sold on trof and a NE trek just yet..

[cycloneye]

Will NHC begin to mention this at 2 PM in their five day outlook?

[CrazyC83]

Globals tend to underestimate intensity at lower latitudes, correct?

[perk]

Yep...CMC not sold on trof and a NE trek just yet..

Cmc 12z has a hurricane that appears to be headed to south Texas.

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF Ensemble Means show enough ridging at the 500mb level in place that if the system develops or emerges in the western tip of the Yucatan it may put Texas in play late next weekend or early next week..


Day 6


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Day 8


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[gatorcane]

No mention by NHC yet:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111727
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[floridasun78]

Will NHC begin to mention this at 2 PM in their five day outlook?

dont work that way the way it work their need to be tropical wave their watching that be giving 5 day forecast right now their not thing in eastern carribbean only very shear weak wave when you see big tropical wave carribbean that when we see it on outlook if models right we wont see strong tropical wave untill wed in carribbean

[Rgv20]

The Experimental FIM-9 has been very consistent in showing the GOM disturbance....Below is the 6z run out to 7 days showing a TC in the Western Gulf.



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[BigB0882]

One thing to keep in mind is how much trouble models have with intensity. At this far out, 4/5 days from formation possibly, the models have been shown to have essentially "no skill" with regards to intensity. Focus on possible formation and the fact that the entire GOM basin needs to be watching this.

[TheStormExpert]

Some of the 0zGFS/EnKF Ensembles just go crazy with the disturbance in the GOM! Of the 20 members 6 of them show a well organize Tropical system in 6 to 7 days and as far I can see at least 2 of them have a weak system in the BOC.

http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/9601/3ruq.png

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http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/7421/oh8u.png

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http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/7711/w4op.png

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Off topic but what's that system in the MDR shown in the images above?

[ROCK]

12Z NAVGEM.....has moved over to SW LA now...moderate TS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical