Disturbed weather in Yucatan,moves to SW GOM (Is Invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 10%-30%

SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS BROAD
DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHERE IS HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Dean4Storms]

Models are beginning to show some similarity now, at least originating in the SW Gulf. Everything will depend on shear this week and that trough next weekend.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS shows the area heading into the Big Bend Area of Florida at 159 hours heading ENE ahead of a strong trough. Area originates in the SW Gulf:

[rockyman]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309170105
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2013, DB, O, 2013091700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952013
AL, 95, 2013091600, , BEST, 0, 177N, 852W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091606, , BEST, 0, 179N, 860W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091612, , BEST, 0, 181N, 868W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091618, , BEST, 0, 183N, 876W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091700, , BEST, 0, 185N, 884W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al952013.invest

[cycloneye]

Yes to that. Go to the Invest 95L - Discussion thread.