2014 EPAC Season

[supercane4867]

It's the CMC.

April storms are quite rare. Only 1 on record (though I strongly suspect there are a few missing from the dataset). However, we supposedly have a strong MJO pulse and a WWB coming. It is too early to affect the basin IMO, though if it slows down as Blake suggested, maybe it'll be there in mid-May? Cause if MJO passes the basin prior to the second week of may, it may be a month before it could come back to the basin. Granted, we've seen 2 storms in May in each of the last 2 years, as well as in 1958, 1984, and 2007. I've noticed EPAC seasons are trending earlier and earlier due to climate change. In the dead era, years with no storm's in May occurred in 1995, 1999, 2009, and 2011. We had a nice 9 streak from 2000-09, but 2009 (yes an El Nino but a late activity starter) got it's first storm at the very end of June. Still, I would not bet on it forming.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Isn't the only April storm recorded was TS Carmen of 1980? which is a cross-over system from WPAC
I'm not sure if there has been a storm that actually formed at eastern EPAC in April

[Yellow Evan]

It's the CMC.

April storms are quite rare. Only 1 on record (though I strongly suspect there are a few missing from the dataset). However, we supposedly have a strong MJO pulse and a WWB coming. It is too early to affect the basin IMO, though if it slows down as Blake suggested, maybe it'll be there in mid-May? Cause if MJO passes the basin prior to the second week of may, it may be a month before it could come back to the basin. Granted, we've seen 2 storms in May in each of the last 2 years, as well as in 1958, 1984, and 2007. I've noticed EPAC seasons are trending earlier and earlier due to climate change. In the dead era, years with no storm's in May occurred in 1995, 1999, 2009, and 2011. We had a nice 9 streak from 2000-09, but 2009 (yes an El Nino but a late activity starter) got it's first storm at the very end of June. Still, I would not bet on it forming.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Isn't the only April storm recorded was TS Carmen of 1980? which is a cross-over system from WPAC
I'm not sure if there has been a storm that actually formed at eastern EPAC in April

There hasn't been, Carmen 80 was thee one I was talking about, though I suspect there could be a missing storm here or there in the dataset. EPHC was super conservative with declaring storms outside of hurricane season (which at that time was June 1-November 30) back in the 80's glory days.

[Yellow Evan]

For entertainment purposes only:



CMC gets worse and worse each year. Now, two TC's and 1 hurricane.

[cycloneye]

It needs a major upgrade. Is better to follow the main global models GFS/ECMWF and both don't have anything in EPAC for now.

[hurricanes1234]

That's funny. They're forecasting a storm in April.

[Kingarabian]

While it is silly that those models are predicting a storm in the EPAC in April, but are they predicting that the MJO will be arriving there in the near future for them to show something?

[Yellow Evan]

While it is silly that those models are predicting a storm in the EPAC in April, but are they predicting that the MJO will be arriving there in the near future for them to show something?

That's what's leading to the CMC to go nuts probs. I won't believe it unless this is some record MJO pulse. IT's a convection feedback issues probs since there is still tons of shear in the EPAC. Nowhere near ready for hurricane season quite yet. It'll get there by next month though IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Shows you how high the CMC is. GFS doesn't even show a low. However, it does show an ITCZ at a very good latitude for TC formation. So, that's progress assuming it verifies.

[Hurricane Jed]

The EPAC has never had a storm in April. Jan/Feb had Category 3 Ekeka in 1992 and March had Tropical Storm Hali also in 1992. I'll wait til May lol.

[Yellow Evan]

The EPAC has never had a storm in April. Jan/Feb had Category 3 Ekeka in 1992 and March had Tropical Storm Hali also in 1992. I'll wait til May lol.

Carmen 80 was in April. Also, Winona 89 was in January.

[Steve H.]

Actually, the European shows a low pressure system developing near the east central Florida coast in a few days before getting absorbed into a North Atlantic low...strange....

[Hurricane Jed]

The EPAC has never had a storm in April. Jan/Feb had Category 3 Ekeka in 1992 and March had Tropical Storm Hali also in 1992. I'll wait til May lol.

Carmen 80 was in April. Also, Winona 89 was in January.

Til Carmen and Winona are listed in the EPAC HURDAT they don't count imo

[Yellow Evan]

The EPAC has never had a storm in April. Jan/Feb had Category 3 Ekeka in 1992 and March had Tropical Storm Hali also in 1992. I'll wait til May lol.

Carmen 80 was in April. Also, Winona 89 was in January.

Til Carmen and Winona are listed in the EPAC HURDAT they don't count imo

Neither were monitored by the CPHC IIRC (they were monitored by the JTWC, hence why they aren't in HURDAT) and both are in IBTRACS. Prior to around 1995, the CPHC would not take over warning responsibility if a storm near the dateline was not expected to be "significant". They did monitor Skip 85, but they didn't monitor Winona, Carmen, or Ward 92 and there may or may not be a few others that I can't remember.

It counts in my book.

[Hurricane Jed]

I'll give you Winona as it probably was a TS east of the dateline, but not Carmen. Formed in the WPAC and crossed over. If we're going for true EPAC/CPAC formation here then Carmen doesn't count as an April formation.

[Yellow Evan]

The EPAC is getting warm. 26C almost up at southern Baja. A few patches along the Southern Gulf. I think there is a chance we could see some 26C SST's along Cabo San Lucas 30 days from now when the season officaly kicks off. I think by June, 26C waters could be up to East Bay. Not too bad for this time for April; honestly, 2010 kinda looked like this in September. IIRC, in 1997, waters off the Baja were #c above normal and near-26C waters extended up towards much of the Baja. One of the reason why Nora 97 made it to BCN.

This was posted on one of the ATL threads, but since it's kinda important, ill post it here and give my input below.



Latest CPAC forecast shows lower than normal pressures temperatures across anywhere 120W west. Also has that westward shift typical of types of El Ninos, but especially Modoki's. Yet another good sign IMO.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CrazyC83]

If the waves come in, look out. 2014 could be an epic year there...Hawaii needs to think more about preparedness than any other recent year, even if the Atlantic is likely to be mostly quiet.

[CrazyC83]

Hurricanes and Easter seem to go together like snow and the 4th of July. Of all major holidays it is probably the LEAST likely to have tropical activity. At least in the Northern Hemisphere.

[Yellow Evan]

If the waves come in, look out. 2014 could be an epic year there...Hawaii needs to think more about preparedness than any other recent year, even if the Atlantic is likely to be mostly quiet.

So does California.

Hawaii hurricane are rare, but Kaui is immune to them. I'd say an Iniki re-run is less likely than an Iwa re-run, but even a re-run of Iwa would be pretty bad.

[Yellow Evan]

Hurricanes and Easter seem to go together like snow and the 4th of July. Of all major holidays it is probably the LEAST likely to have tropical activity. At least in the Northern Hemisphere.

Well, the CMC does show something at the end of the run, but it's in fantasy land probs, and that's well past Easter

[Kingarabian]

Hurricanes and Easter seem to go together like snow and the 4th of July. Of all major holidays it is probably the LEAST likely to have tropical activity. At least in the Northern Hemisphere.

Well, the CMC does show something at the end of the run, but it's in fantasy land probs, and that's well past Easter

The killer for EPAC basin crossers has been cool waters around Hawaii. Let's see if that changes this year.