#98 Postby Andrew92 » Sat May 03, 2014 10:56 pm
The following post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
If we are looking beyond this El Nino, the year I fear the most isn't quite 2015, although a major hurricane hitting the US next year wouldn't surprise me. Instead, I fear 2016, a lot.
Assuming this El Nino lasts until next winter, after every traditional East Pacific-based El Nino, the second year every single time in the satellite era has seen a hurricane of 960 mb or lower pressure strike somewhere on the mainland US. 1967, 1979, 1989, 1996, 1999, 2004, 2008, 2011. All of these years (plus a few others I didn't mention) met that criteria and all had at least one hurricane with a deep low pressure hit somewhere on the US with destructive effects. In fact, US landfalling hurricanes of any intensity have a significantly higher rate of happening in these second years after an El Nino (or first year after a Modoki episode) than any other year. At least, that is what recent history tells us. (Keep in mind too, I actually think 960 mb or lower should always be considered a major event, regards of wind speed and Saffir/Simpson category. Just about every such event has proven devastating.)
But we should first just be talking about 2014. I have to say that I would be very surprised if a major hurricane with a pressure that low struck the US. It would likely take an Alicia-like scenario for that to happen this year, with conditions likely very hostile for development for the long-tracking, classical hurricanes that we are more accustomed to seeing. But I do believe one hurricane will strike the US, probably on the Gulf Coast somewhere as that seems to be a norm for US hurricanes in these types of years.
Just remember too, as unlikely as it is....Betsy occurred in an El Nino year, too. There could also always be a scenario like Agnes (also in a strong El Nino year) where an otherwise come-and-go type storm that doesn't appear to do much at first produces massive flooding as it dies out.
It only takes one.
-Andrew92
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