Expert forecasts for 2014 N Atl Hurricane season

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Not a good sign for an active North Atlantic 2014 season if what the ECMWF precipitation forecast for June,July and August dry forecast for MDR/Caribbean pans out.

http://oi60.tinypic.com/1zokh1y.jpg

that goes along with the very high pressures forecasted. will be interesting if we can set 2 records this season. lowest ACE and most stable tropical atlantic ever.

Lowest ACE will be nearly impossible to beat. I doubt we'll even come close.

[ninel conde]

Not a good sign for an active North Atlantic 2014 season if what the ECMWF precipitation forecast for June,July and August dry forecast for MDR/Caribbean pans out.

http://oi60.tinypic.com/1zokh1y.jpg

that goes along with the very high pressures forecasted. will be interesting if we can set 2 records this season. lowest ACE and most stable tropical atlantic ever.

Lowest ACE will be nearly impossible to beat. I doubt we'll even come close.

we will have to see. it now seems likely the deep tropics will be flooded with bone dry air at all levels. this season might make last season seem like a monsoon in the deep tropics. i am also becoming more confident that the seemingly permanent east coast trof will once again be dominant making in close development a long shot.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

we will have to see. it now seems likely the deep tropics will be flooded with bone dry air at all levels. this season might make last season seem like a monsoon in the deep tropics. i am also becoming more confident that the seemingly permanent east coast trof will once again be dominant making in close development a long shot.

A year ago, everybody was hollering about how the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season would be above-average to hyperactive. We see how that turned out. You shouldn't be sure on anything on March 11, especially not a heights pattern that is subject to daily changes.

[Ntxw]

Last year I know (csu or cpc) looked back and noted the Atlantic thermohaline as an indicator things could be quiet back then. Where can we find this data and where does such circulation stand at this point?

[tolakram]

I found the archives from 2013, for those interested.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2013/index.html

Replace 2013 with any year back to 2001 (as far as I've tried). There does not seem to be much correlation with March values and peak of season.

2005, for example.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2005/index.html

Just something to ponder as we wait for this season.

[CaliforniaResident]

If this El Nino is Modoki (which is looking more and more likely) will it still bring above average rainfall to California?

[WeatherGuesser]

A year ago, everybody was hollering

Two thoughts.....

You avatar is over 400K and is hotlinked directly from NOAA.

You mention the '13 season, but include a chart from '12.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A year ago, everybody was hollering

Two thoughts.....

You avatar is over 400K and is hotlinked directly from NOAA.

You mention the '13 season, but include a chart from '12.

I guess I should've explained more--2012 is a good example of how a season can still be active without most of the activity focused in the deep tropics.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Last year I know (csu or cpc) looked back and noted the Atlantic thermohaline as an indicator things could be quiet back then. Where can we find this data and where does such circulation stand at this point?

I don't know the answer to either of these questions, but I asked Levi (TropicalTidbits) if he would be able to get a running graph for THC up on his site and he said he could as soon as his computer was fixed. In the meantime, you can view page 55 of CSU's Summary of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season to get an idea of how THC is calculated.

[WeatherGuesser]

You avatar is over 400K and is hotlinked directly from NOAA.

No longer Hotlinked, but still a bandwidth buster.

[stephen23]

I found the archives from 2013, for those interested.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2013/index.html

Replace 2013 with any year back to 2001 (as far as I've tried). There does not seem to be much correlation with March values and peak of season.

2005, for example.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2005/index.html

Just something to ponder as we wait for this season.

Here is more food for thought.... I like to work statistics so put this spreadsheet together for all years from 2003-2013. Would have included 2000-2002 but the graphs don't start until May for these years so was unable to find data.






Here is my thoughts..

1) over past 11 years we have been in neutral state 27% of the time, El Nino 27% of the time, and La Nina 46% of the time
2) over past 11 years 83.33% of all GOM landfall hurricanes occurred in years with Tropical Atlantic vertical Instability below average in mid March
3) Mid march Carribean vertical Instability has seemed to have no affect of landfall GOM hurricanes later that season
4)over past 11 years 66.67% of all GOM landfall hurricanes have occurred in years when GOM vertical instability was above average in mid March
5) over past 11 years 100% of years with more then one GOM landfall hurricanes have occurred in years when GOM vertical instability was above average in mid March
6) over past 11 years 100% of years have had a landfall GOM hurricane when GOM vertical instability was above average in mid March
7)over past 11 years only 28% of years have had a landfall GOM hurricane when GOM vertical instability was below average in mid March
8) March vertical instability in Sub-Tropic Atlantic has seemed to have no relationship to GOM landfall hurricanes
9)16.7% of years had GOM landfall hurricane when East Coast vertical instability was neutral during mid March
10)50% of years had GOM landfall hurricane when East Coast vertical instability was below normal in mid March
11) 33.3% of years had GOM landfall hurricane when East Coast vertical instability was above normal in mid March
12) As of March 12th.... the only year to match 2014 in mid March both positive or negative vertical instability and vertical shear in all areas (tropical Atlantic, Carribean, Gulf Of Mexico, Sub-Tropic Atlantic, and East Coast) was 2008 but 2008 was a weak La Nina year.

I know this really doesn't matter because it is only March but was fun to look up statistically.

[stephen23]

A little bit more research I did. Since 1990......

1990,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,2001,2003,2005,2008,2011,2012,and 2013 were all Neutral or in transition during peak hurricane season
1991,1997,2002,2004, and 2009 were all El Nino phase during peak hurricane season
1998, 1999, 2000, 2010 were all La Nina during peak hurricane season

Average of named storm in neutral years above was 15-8-3. 46% of these years had a hurricane make landfall on Gulf Coast
Average of named storms in El Nino years above was 11-5-3. 80% of these years had a hurricane make landfall on Gulf Coast
Average of named storms in La Nina years above was 15-10-4. 75% of these years had a hurricane make landfall on Gulf Coast

From what I see is with it looking like we may be headed towards El Nino by hurricane season this may bring down the total named storms for the year but appears to enhance to probability of a storm reaching Gulf Coast as Hurricane Status. Just an oppinion

[stephen23]

A little bit more research I did. Since 1990......

1990,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,2001,2003,2005,2008,2011,2012,and 2013 were all Neutral or in transition during peak hurricane season
1991,1997,2002,2004, and 2009 were all El Nino phase during peak hurricane season
1998, 1999, 2000, 2010 were all La Nina during peak hurricane season

Average of named storm in neutral years above was 15-8-3. 46% of these years had a hurricane make landfall on Gulf Coast
Average of named storms in El Nino years above was 11-5-3. 80% of these years had a hurricane make landfall on Gulf Coast
Average of named storms in La Nina years above was 15-10-4. 75% of these years had a hurricane make landfall on Gulf Coast

From what I see is with it looking like we may be headed towards El Nino by hurricane season this may bring down the total named storms for the year but appears to enhance to probability of a storm reaching Gulf Coast as Hurricane Status. Just an oppinion

A little more research and it was found that there may be a relationship between a post-Modoki el nino year and Atlantic hurricane season. Of the above listed neutral years 1992,1995,2003, 2005 were all post-Modoki years. All were very active years besides 1992. All had a GOM hurricane landfall. If you deduct post Modoki years then average named storm for a normal neutral year drops to 14-7-3 since 1990 and only 15% of normal neutral years have had a GOM hurricane landfall.

[ninel conde]

the conveyor belt of bone dry african dust is getting set up nicely.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=108hr

this looks eerily similar to last year. trof off east coast and a huge high in ne atlantic in a perfect position to sweep the bone dry african air through the deep tropics.

[cycloneye]

the conveyor belt of bone dry african dust is getting set up nicely.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=108hr

this looks eerily similar to last year. trof off east coast and a huge high in ne atlantic in a perfect position to sweep the bone dry african air through the deep tropics.

Is still early in the game as many things can happen on the atmosphere in 78 days and beyond.

[wxman57]

Another negative factor is the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is forecast to go negative again this summer. This means cooler-than-normal water in the western Indian Ocean, similar to last season. This was probably a big reason why the waves coming off Africa in 2013 were so weak.

[ninel conde]

the conveyor belt of bone dry african dust is getting set up nicely.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=108hr

this looks eerily similar to last year. trof off east coast and a huge high in ne atlantic in a perfect position to sweep the bone dry african air through the deep tropics.

Is still early in the game as many things can happen on the atmosphere in 78 days and beyond.

true, but right now i cant see a single positive factor for this season.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Another negative factor is the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is forecast to go negative again this summer. This means cooler-than-normal water in the western Indian Ocean, similar to last season. This was probably a big reason why the waves coming off Africa in 2013 were so weak.

Respectfully disagreed. A neutral or negative IOD actually favors enhanced activity, as indicated by the years of 1995, 1998, 2004, 2005, 2008, and 2010. In a positive IOD, the Africa monsoon circulation is suppressed and the upper-level high over the East Atlantic is pushed farther south, focusing the southerly flow south of the MDR and replacing it with northerly flow (dry air). For this, see the seasons of 1994, 1997, 1999 (active overall, but mainly away from the MDR), 2002, 2006, and 2011.

[Ntxw]

I'm not all too familiar with how the IOD works. But I can say that convection in the Indian Ocean plays a very important role as evident in extensive research (posted several times on papers about MJO phases and TC activity as well as Hurricanes and major hurricanes). If the MJO favors the Pacific as it has been the first few months of this year then subsidence will reign supreme again in the IO, Maritime Continent, and Atlantic. Something worth keeping an eye on.

[Alyono]

might not want to include 1999 as an inactive MDR year. It was extremely active within the MDR. Most things that year formed south of 20N and were quite intense