Development in SW GOM? (Is Invest 90L)

[Alyono]

The chance of development is a LOT higher than the 0 percent NHC is saying. Does not mean development will occur, just saying it is most certainly not a zero percent chance

[JonathanBelles]

The chance of development is a LOT higher than the 0 percent NHC is saying. Does not mean development will occur, just saying it is most certainly not a zero percent chance

Just curious, what are your thoughts on this system? What do you think the chances are?

[Hurricaneman]

My opinion is that this could be one of those systems that goes from 0% one day to 60% the next especially as the Epac TD makes landfall and lessens the shear over the disturbance, it certainly wouldn't be the first time they've done that but as of now I do agree with a 0% chance of development at 48 hrs but maybe the original 20% they had before is probably closer to reality for the 5 day

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

The chance of development is a LOT higher than the 0 percent NHC is saying. Does not mean development will occur, just saying it is most certainly not a zero percent chance

Just curious, what are your thoughts on this system? What do you think the chances are?

30-35%

The GFS now has 2 storms coming from this. Blows up another system in front of the low we're tracking

[Hurricaneman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_26.png

has a 999 low near the NW tip of the Yucatan at 156, this could be the first named storm of 2014 and possibly a significant tropical storm for the Yucatan but am not yet going with a hurricane due to inconsistency.

Seems to maintain itself at 186 as it approaches the NE tip of the Yucatan which with any system inland is probably wrong but could it possibly be some kind of feedback thats causing another low to form to its northeast

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

The chances of this thing becoming a hurricane IMO are slim to almost none. Last year we could barely squeeze out two pathetically organized Cat.1 hurricanes! Environmental conditions are way too marginal (which is typical for early June standards) for a hurricane to form.

Besides 999mb is about a moderate TS at best.

[Alyono]

Think they are hugging the EC far too much

not sure how they get a 0 percent chance through 5 days

[Hurricaneman]

Is it me or is the 0zGFS trying to pop not just the possible Arthur but at about 192hrs trying to pop a Bertha which IMO is very unlikely

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Annie Oakley]

Whatever it is-it's pretty darned impressive to look at on satellite.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php

(talking in real-time lol--may be gone by the time you see this)

[chaser1]

Well, I for one am looking at the 200mb from 0Z and am having a hard time understanding how the GFS is still even attempting to develop a storm in the BOC. I'm not seeing it, and nor do I think the GFS is going to see it either come next run. I had mentioned a day ago, if somehow earlier FIM runs were correct and the COC were somehow sheltered under the W. Central Caribbean, than I could easily see a storm develop and potentially move generally northward from there. However under the continued strong shear already in place over the Gulf, the small upper level anticyclone over the E. Pac depression will not appear to remain over it after weakening when making landfall. I don't see any organized low lower than perhaps 1002mb. even developing in the BOC from this tropical soup. Whatever lower pressures and convection that may briefly transition from the Pacific to the Yucatan, look to get quickly stretched out and sheared to the Northeast and over S. Florida - LESS impressively than current GFS models are making it. For now, "that's my story and i'm stickin' to it" LOL

As a footnote, I could imagine that area's of S. Florida which have already experienced some heavy rains, may cumulatively receive 3"-6" between now and early next week when most moisture from our deep easterlies plus enchanced upper level flow from the south finally move out.

[Evil Jeremy]

06z GFS shows an organized low in 2-3 days, tightening up in the BoC around 90 hours, then hangs around the BoC for a few days before hitting the Yucatan and SWFL in 192 hrs.

Satellite presentation is pathetic this morning.

[Hurricaneman]

06z GFS shows an organized low in 2-3 days, tightening up in the BoC around 90 hours, then hangs around the BoC for a few days before hitting the Yucatan and SWFL in 192 hrs.

Satellite presentation is pathetic this morning.

actually there is an area of convection forming where the low is progged to develop but it won't do anything until later today or tomorrow as td3-e makes landfall and sucks the convection into the low forming in the BOC

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[robbielyn]

The reason nhc is at 0% is because the moisture we see in the gulf is actually being drawn up from the Pacific. Also there's ULL south of Texas coast that will prevent formation and on top of that, we have easterly winds east of us coast funneling in that will actually give us a dry atmosphere. Per Met Josh Linker baynews9 meteorologist from the tampabay fl area.

[blp]

So far the GFS is correct and Euro is not. Moving faster and more northerly. Also is projected to cross a thinner area of land.

[NDG]

The BOC should be at least be highlighted by the NHC. How many times have we seen systems get organized very quickly in the BOC taking the NHC by surprise most times. Is it because there is no support from the ECWMF short term forecast? I bet it is.

[USTropics]

Here is an excerpt from this morning's NHC Discussion regarding TD TWO-E (and a possible track into the BOC):

There has been a significant change in the models
in the last run, and now there is more agreement among them. The
ECMWF which in previous runs kept the cyclone meandering south of
Mexico is now in tune with the GFS and the HWRF. These three
reliable models are moving the cyclone northward over Mexico a
little bit faster.

They are still forecasting dissipation at 96 hours, however.

[tropicwatch]

Nice flare up of showers in the BOC this morning.

[cycloneye]

Interesting sentence from 8 AM PDT discussion of TD-TWO-E.

The interaction of the depression, upper-low, and a weak
system over the Bay of Campeche is really producing a complicated
scenario.

[hurrtracker79]

NHC seems very unsure of the situation. I agree with you all - true development chances should be in the neighborhood of 25%. There is a chance that TD could keep moving north at 5-8 mph and end up in the Gulf in 2-3 days. Not likely, but possible. The BOC should indeed be highlighted. Respect the NHC though.

[cycloneye]

The 12z surface graphic by TAFB has a low in BOC.