Area of Disturbed Weather Near Panama

[gatorcane]

The FIM model still develops this area. No other model is though besides the NAM (which is not a good model). Usually the FIM and GFS are similar (since the FIM is based off the GFS) but the FIM seems to be diverging quite a bit from the GFS the past several runs which is not what I am used to seeing. If it gets this right, would be rather interesting!

You forgot the crazy uncle. I also think something is eventually going to get going down there.

Yeah the GEM is developing it too, forgot that one!

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS had this developing by now but the Euro has it in the 9 to 10 day range. Is it possible that the GFS just pulled the MJO too quickly to the phase 8,1,2 phases and therefore pretty much had development like 10 days earlier than what is possibly going to happen if the Euro ends up being right with having something form around the day 9 to 10 range from now

As for 2 vortices becoming tropical cyclones one in the EPAC and one north of Houndoras is quite possible in setups like this as there is currently a vortex near Nicaragua and one in the EPAC, this may need to be watched for the GOM if the Euro starts making it stronger in the next few days of runs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Sanibel]

Not so fast. This still has potential. The shear has dropped significantly and there's the juiciest monsoon trough out in the Central Atlantic I've seen all year. The switch might have finally gone off.

[Ntxw]

There is still 20+ knots of shear on the north side of this region. The NW Carib has 50+ knots of shear, it's not going away anytime soon the environment on this side of the Panama isthmus is just simply not favorable.

We've been going for days Euro vs GFS but really you didn't need to see the models all was needed was to look at the upper conditions. EPAC won not because of the Euro because the environment allowed development.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm not buying into anything until the Euro continues to show what it showed on today's 12z run for at least several more runs. Honestly, I feel that the Euro will more than likely drop this feature. The GFS on the other hand is well... TOTALLY WORTHLESS! (IMO). The GFS has become nothing but a broken record these past two weeks and at this point, unless the Euro shows it I'm not buying it!

[TheStormExpert]

There is still 20+ knots of shear on the north side of this region. The NW Carib has 50+ knots of shear, it's not going away anytime soon the environment on this side of the Panama isthmus is just simply not favorable.

I totally agree! Also, I do not see the MJO magically just showing up when it has basically been nonexistent all season long, sorry but this season is basically over with! We still could squeeze out Fay as a minimal TS out in the open Atlantic or well off the East Coast, but that'll be it.

[Hammy]

I do not see the MJO magically just showing up when it has basically been nonexistent all season long, sorry but this season is basically over with!

The MJO has come around a few times and each time has produced a hurricane, I'm not sure what data you're looking at. Are you caught in a time warp and posting this from sometime in 2013?

I'm not buying into anything until the Euro continues to show what it showed on today's 12z run for at least several more runs.

I'd give the Euro about 4-5 days, given it has an odd habit of showing something once or twice at day 10, then dropping it for several days and then showing it again when it gets within 4-5 days. It did this with Bertha, Cristobal, Edouard, and also appears to be doing it with the system east of the Antilles as well.

[TheStormExpert]

I do not see the MJO magically just showing up when it has basically been nonexistent all season long, sorry but this season is basically over with!

The MJO has come around a few times and each time has produced a hurricane, I'm not sure what data you're looking at. Are you caught in a time warp and posting this from sometime in 2013?

I guess your right! It's been an extremely long and somewhat boring season it seems. Lol!

I guess anything is possible, but we need the Euro to forecast a storm for me to believe it.

[Blown Away]

00z ECMWF At 240 hours... Weak Low In The NW Caribbean...


06z GFS At 240 Hours... Weak Low Moves Over Cuba Then Back Towards Florida...


00z FIM At 234 Hours... TS Landfall At SW Florida...


00z GEM/CMC At 240 Hours... TS Moving Over Cuba...

Seems to be decent model support for a weak low in the NW Caribbean in 6-10 days...

[Hurricaneman]

actually the area near 13N 45W is what the models have latched onto and it seems to absorb anything in the Caribbean into it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Sanibel]

The shear is actually only 5kts near the center, however the axis center is in SW Nicaragua and is just about to tip to the EPAC side.

The Central Atlantic convection is highly sheared and has receded. 2014.

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi thinks that something may get going in the Caribbean in the next 10 days. We'll see.

[tailgater]

Looks like a low kevel or mid level system is trying to form over Nicaragua.

[Sanibel]

I'm seeing the same thing. I think if it pulled north it might form. It keeps pulling back after looking like it is headed for EPAC. An obvious rotation that looks like it means business.

[gatorcane]

Seems like the epac system is not materializing as fast as I thought...and convection still persisting just east of Nicaragua...something to watch

[Hurricaneman]

Seems like the epac system is not materializing as fast as I thought...and convection still persisting just east of Nicaragua...something to watch

Shear is still the problem in regards to development but if it can find even a small hole in the shear it might have a chance to become something noteworthy

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[boca]

Something is definitely brewing off the coast of Nicuagua so maybe the GFS was on to something,we will see.

[Dean4Storms]

Still some lower level spin over Honduras/Nicaragua....If this does pull northward it would have potential.

[Sanibel]

Still stationary over land. Will it spin down or will it nudge north and form?

[gatorcane]

Still seeing spin there (over Northeastern Nicaragua, may want to change the title of the thread), eventually the flow would nudge this into the NW Caribbean by early next week. If it is still around by then, might see something form in the NW Caribbean. The FIM model just doesn't give up and continues to try and get something going later next week.