Possible Development in the BOC (Is Invest 93L)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re:
gatorcane wrote:Down to 1002MB at 168 hours on the 12Z ECMWF - maybe subtropical?
[]http://i60.tinypic.com/24awz0m.jpg[/img]
Yes Gator different pattern has a stronger low over Nefoundland than 00z.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23689
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
The dry air over the BOC and southern Gulf that has been entrenched the past few days has moistened up considerably:
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re: Possible Development in the BOC
How would the low over Newfoundland cause the system to be stronger?
0 likes
Re: Possible Development in the BOC
boca wrote:How would the low over Newfoundland cause the system to be stronger?
No it would cause it to get kicked out quicker. I was referring to it moving out faster not getting trapped.
EDIT: nevermind it gets trapped again.
Last edited by blp on Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23689
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: Possible Development in the BOC
blp wrote:The 12z UKmet has the low at 144hrs staying in the NW Carribean and left behind. I think the GFS is too quick ejecting it out. Let see what the King has to say.
I think that is yesterday's 12Z (check the image timestamp you are looking which I assume is from meteocentre site). I can't find the latest 12Z.
0 likes
-
gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23689
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
The GEM model doesn't show much land interaction with Mexico or the Yucatan and makes it quite strong into South Florida at 150 hours which looks like a CAT 1 hurricane. Though usually the GEM is overbullish so not concerned yet.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Oct 19, 2014 2:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
Re: Possible Development in the BOC
Notice the mid-level low diving down from the northern gulf coast on the Euro run. Cowan had a good discussion of this yesterday at tidbits. It's likely to be subtropical with heavy rain threat for Florida.
0 likes
Re: Possible Development in the BOC
gatorcane wrote:blp wrote:The 12z UKmet has the low at 144hrs staying in the NW Carribean and left behind. I think the GFS is too quick ejecting it out. Let see what the King has to say.
I think that is yesterday's 12Z (check the image timestamp you are looking which I assume is from meteocentre site). I can't find the latest 12Z.
You are right what threw me off is at the top on the site ot said 12z run for today. Thanks
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23689
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
NWS Miami discussion snippet just released.
.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
NWS Tampa doesn't mention much yet:
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM THE
TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO LIFT
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
NWS Tampa doesn't mention much yet:
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM THE
TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO LIFT
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
0 likes
-
Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10140
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: Possible Development in the BOC
Very rare track to have a TS/Hurricane move from BOC over SFL... Opal was Panhandle... Sheared elongated rainy mess is my guess...
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
weather statement
Should I be worried? I live in Sarasota county.https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sarasota-County-Emergency-Management/623466111005511?hc_location=timeline
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Ulf and 89 guests