2015 Global model runs discussion

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yep. Grass getting a little brown.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm wondering if the area of disturbed weather north of Panama and that ULL near Bermuda combine to cause the system portrayed in the GFS

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[gatorcane]

I think the models are maybe seeing the tropical wave currently approaching the Southern Leewards that somehow gets involved in creating the trough of low pressure over the NW Caribbean by next week. Low resolution map below showing position of the wave.

The GFS really ramps up the moisture/convection over the Central Caribbean on the northern axis of this wave within the next 2-3 days so let's see if that starts to happen or not. Still the models are showing a good amount of shear even in the NW Caribbean (as is typical in early June) so that is the main thing holding back significant development.

[Hurricaneman]

And also the 18zGFS would be quite wet and windy for OBX but as always this is in fantasy range and one thing I take away from this is sometime next week something may form in the southern Bahamas

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[jlauderdal]

12Z Euro agrees with the GFS - very weak low developing near southern Florida next Wed/Thu becomes a slightly stronger (but weak) low east of the Carolinas next weekend.

east cast fl has been real dry...could use some moisture on our side, will see how this modeling pans out, at least the euro is showing something

[gatorcane]

18z GFS looks quite rainy for South Florida with the 1009MB low coming in from the SW right over South Florida.

[Steve]

Lala land for the gfs at 362 hours/16 days, but trough over the Central Gulf lifts out, a ridge sets up, and then a fast moving piece of energy moving South to North forms a vortex just off the LA coast. pattern is about to change and that becomes the next major change/reversal in about 2 weeks. I'd give it less than 5% chance, and yeah it's just a model storm. But it shows up nicely in the 850 over 500ht over 200 winds. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... Size=M&ps=

[WPBWeather]

Actually, IMO Gatorcane has this next FL system more "nailed" than others posting so far. We'll check back next week to see whose model hugging has worked out!

[Hammy]

Euro is showing lowering pressures in about 9-10 days (with a possible low forming at 240 hours) in the same vacinity and timing that the GFS formed a system several runs back

[Alyono]

On thing of note halfway around the world, the models are picking up on something in the Arabian Sea forming this week. Latest MU has a very strong cyclone striking near the Iran / Pakistan border, an area not known for intense cyclones. CMC has also been indicating formation here

[Kingarabian]

On thing of note halfway around the world, the models are picking up on something in the Arabian Sea forming this week. Latest MU has a very strong cyclone striking near the Iran / Pakistan border, an area not known for intense cyclones. CMC has also been indicating formation here

Thanks for pointing that out. I remember in 2009 or 2010 a rare cyclone hit Oman.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Also in 2007 Cyclone Gonu hit Iran and Oman, which is much farther west

[gatorcane]

On thing of note halfway around the world, the models are picking up on something in the Arabian Sea forming this week. Latest MU has a very strong cyclone striking near the Iran / Pakistan border, an area not known for intense cyclones. CMC has also been indicating formation here

Wow just checked MU, 940MB:

[Hammy]

Which model is that?

[Hammy]

0z Euro is showing a low north of Bermuda with slightly warmer 850MB temps than surrounding and no low overhead (though possibly moderate shear)

[gatorcane]

Euro is also showing a crossover EPAC system into the BOC. The GFS showed this on a couple of runs initially:

[PTrackerLA]

Just looked at the 00z Euro over on Weatherbell and it shows a low lifting northward from the BOC at 240 hrs slowing deepening down to 1001mb. Could just end up being a moisture surge or something more but worth keeping an eye on.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro once again has this low at 240hrs in the BOC down to 1000mb and lifting northwards...

Edit: 999mb on a higher resolution graphic over on Weatherbell

[jlauderdal]

12z Euro once again has this low at 240hrs in the BOC down to 1000mb and lifting northwards...

Edit: 999mb on a higher resolution graphic over on Weatherbell

well its the euro so its worth noting but honestly how many lows have we seen at 240h that never materialize

[gatorcane]

But the GEM is also showing something in the BOC too at 240 hours, so the ECMWF is not alone, plus this is the second run in a row that the ECMWF has showed something. Still it is far out there and this low could poof on subsequent runs: