Development off SE U.S coast?

[TheStormExpert]

This season is more aggravating already than 2013!

[NDG]

I might be speaking too soon, but I doubt it, but the Euro proved the be the too aggressive model compared tithe GFS. Good job by the GFS.

I doubt much will come out of this, there is still too much northerly shear with dry air pushing in with no UL divergence present.

[TheStormExpert]

This setup is typical of fall not summer, with dry air screaming south off the continent due to cold fronts.

Can't believe most of us got burnt by the Euro.

[xcool22]

I was rite..

[wxman57]

I still think there's a good chance "Danny" will form this week. 00Z Euro has it developing off the East U.S. Coast in a couple of days and heading past Bermuda and out to sea. It's a 40kt TS NE of Bermuda on Wednesday evening. There's a larger are of 35 & 40kt winds as it approaches Newfoundland on Friday.

[OuterBanker]

To tie what Hammy and wxman said. The 0z European sendstyle a weak system OTS near Bermuda then after that it sends a elongated low along the seus coast. In other words it shifted back east and along coast as it did several days ago but considerably weaker.

[LarryWx]

Based on wishy washy model runs, it being a strong El Niño, and the end of July still being pretty quiet climowise (though not as quiet as earlier in July), my educated guess is that no named storm forms before July ends. Aside: July is already above average for a strong Niño with one named storm. Many have had zero. 1997's July was a major anomaly.

[wxman57]

El Nino is not a factor in the subtropics, nor is it much of a factor in the Gulf of Mexico. El Nino's impact is mostly in the deep tropics.

[LarryWx]

El Nino is not a factor in the subtropics, nor is it much of a factor in the Gulf of Mexico. El Nino's impact is mostly in the deep tropics.

Wxman,
Regarding the Gulf, I don't entirely agree once past June. If you look back at past El Nino (especially nonweak) seasons once past June, Gulf activity is reduced on average quite a bit in terms of the number of major Gulf hurricanes and the number of seasons with more than one Gulf hurricane. I've analyzed the historical stats to discover this. OTOH, June activity, itself, has been enhanced on average.
July of 1997 was a major anomaly. I don't count 1983 as El Niño.

[TheStormExpert]

Said this in the other thread but what effect does an El Niño have on the northern half of the GoM(if any)? It always seems in an El Niño event that whatever forms in the Southern GoM/BoC/NW Caribbean and heads north experiences weakening in the Northern GoM.

[Ntxw]

El Nino is not a factor in the subtropics, nor is it much of a factor in the Gulf of Mexico. El Nino's impact is mostly in the deep tropics.

I don't know about statistics of it, I'm sure you and Larry has input on that. One question though, of course you cannot associated El Nino with everything/or lack of on a smaller scale for different areas as it is a longer term background influence. My question is, the background state though does decrease the odds of tropical waves that survive the trip into the subtropics and/or gulf. Would that be a factor in reduction? At this point we still haven't really seen anything survive even in weakened state. Everything has been local convection.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the models are back to developing a low off the East coast around where the NHC originally had the shading on Friday. Latest GFS is close to the ECMWF. So looks like still a good chance of something forming off the east coast and moving away from the U.S.

Latest GFS, 60 hours racing away from the U.S. near Bermuda:

[NCSTORMMAN]

Looks like the models are back to developing a low off the East coast around where the NHC originally had the shading on Friday. Latest GFS is close to the ECMWF. So looks like still a good chance of something forming off the east coast and moving away from the U.S.

Right now I do not know if I speak for everyone but I do not trust the models at all. They even have the NHC bouncing around at where something is going to develop. I am no weatherman but if I was I wouldn't trust what they show no matter what. At least with this situation.

[tropicwatch]

Wouldn't write off the trough in the Gulf or Atlantic just yet. But the low in the area of Jacksonville appears to be moving inland.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the models are back to developing a low off the East coast around where the NHC originally had the shading on Friday. Latest GFS is close to the ECMWF. So looks like still a good chance of something forming off the east coast and moving away from the U.S.

Right now I do not know if I speak for everyone but I do not trust the models at all. They even have the NHC bouncing around at where something is going to develop. I am no weatherman but if I was I wouldn't trust what they show no matter what. At least with this situation.

Difference now is that all the global models from what I can see are showing this system now. So we seem to be converging on a solution - storm developing off the East Coast of the US and accelerating ENE near Bermuda and out to sea. Wxman's graphics above picture this nicely.

NHC may shade yellow again near where they had it and showing the out to sea scenario.

[stormlover2013]

Yeah I see nothing coming out of this, more than likely a fish storm, will give us something to talk about but i still think some gulf moisture is the place to watch end of this week if anything is going to spin up

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*edited by Ntxw delete duplicate post

[NCSTORMMAN]

Looks like the models are back to developing a low off the East coast around where the NHC originally had the shading on Friday. Latest GFS is close to the ECMWF. So looks like still a good chance of something forming off the east coast and moving away from the U.S.

Right now I do not know if I speak for everyone but I do not trust the models at all. They even have the NHC bouncing around at where something is going to develop. I am no weatherman but if I was I wouldn't trust what they show no matter what. At least with this situation.

Difference now is that all the global models from what I can see are showing this system now. So we seem to be converging on a solution - storm developing off the East Coast of the US and accelerating ENE near Bermuda and out to sea. Wxman's graphics above picture this nicely.

NHC may shade yellow again near where they had it and showing the out to sea scenario.

I am still thinking the Gulf of Mexico. It seems like convection is wrapping around a center unlike yesterday where the convection was below the CoC. I am not a weatherman so would like opinions.

[tolakram]

Euro has a very weak low in 48 hours moving NE out to sea.

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-77&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

[NDG]

Euro has proven to be too aggressive in its medium to long range forecast, it has been backing away from the storm it was forecasting near Bermuda, at least in strength and tropical/subtropical characteristics.

[gatorcane]

I posted this in the GOM thread as that is where the low may originate, but I still think there is a decent chance we will get some development here from something along this trough and if something does develop, it will be off the S.E. United States coast. NAVGEM and UKMET are very bullish so model support is there.


NAVGEM: