Expert forecasts for 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season

#81 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu May 26, 2016 10:07 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
tolakram wrote:Weatherbell update out.

Total ACE: 105-135
New named storms: 11-14 (12 - 15 including Alex)
Hurricanes: 6-8
Major Hurricanes: 2-4
Chief analog years
1988, 1995, 1998, 2007 & 2010


This is the image I found of their update. A little different I think.

Image


Looks like they are really going out on a limb with that high risk area :roll:
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season

#82 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri May 27, 2016 10:26 am

You can watch the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Outlook briefing at http://www.c-span.org/video/?410239-1/noaa-officials-brief-reporters-2016-hurricane-season (begins 11:30am Eastern US Time).
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season

#83 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri May 27, 2016 10:31 am

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

NOAA 2016 Atlantic hurricane season forecast:

- 10-16 Named Storms, which includes Alex in January
- 4-8 Hurricanes, which includes Alex in January
- 1-4 Major Hurricanes
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median, which includes Alex in January
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016: NOAA May Forecast is up

#84 Postby Macrocane » Fri May 27, 2016 12:12 pm

Basically they have no idea what's going to happen. I don't blame them, this must be one the most difficult forecasts ever.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016: NOAA May Forecast is up

#85 Postby WPBWeather » Fri May 27, 2016 12:18 pm

Macrocane wrote:Basically they have no idea what's going to happen. I don't blame them, this must be one the most difficult forecasts ever.



You know, truer words have probably not been spoken. The hot vs. cold ATL argument continues; ice berg melt and fresh water theories abound; a few PAC and west coast Storm2K bloggers seem concerned that the ATL shows signs of early life. :(
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016: NOAA May Forecast is up

#86 Postby SFLcane » Fri May 27, 2016 12:23 pm

Woah... :slime: TSR has released their updated hurricane forecast 17NS,9H,4M. ACE:130

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016: NOAA and TSR May Forecast are up

#87 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 27, 2016 12:34 pm

Big jump by TSR.Link to PDF document forecast is at list at first post.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season

#88 Postby tatertawt24 » Fri May 27, 2016 4:34 pm

When you're unsure, always declare a dud. :wink:

And:

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
tolakram wrote:Weatherbell update out.

Total ACE: 105-135
New named storms: 11-14 (12 - 15 including Alex)
Hurricanes: 6-8
Major Hurricanes: 2-4
Chief analog years
1988, 1995, 1998, 2007 & 2010


This is the image I found of their update. A little different I think.

Image


Looks like they are really going out on a limb with that high risk area :roll:


Right?! :lol: :lol: This is the most vaguely-forecasted season ever.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016: CSU June forecast is up

#89 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 01, 2016 9:12 am

CSU June forecast is up at first post.The numbers are 12/5/2 not including Alex and Bonnie.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016: CSU / TWC June forecasts are up

#90 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:13 am

TWC June forecast is also up.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016: CSU / TWC June forecasts are up

#91 Postby NDG » Wed Jun 01, 2016 4:49 pm

I am really surprised Dr Phil K stayed with his conservative forecast. j/k
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 for N Atlantic Hurricane Season

#92 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:09 pm

Interesting conversation between Phil Klotzbach,Michael Ventrice and Eric Blake about the future Atlantic activity.


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Early Atlantic hurricane season TCs do not guarantee active year. 2013 had 2 June TCs but only 2 hurricanes overall.




Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 29m29 minutes ago

Need to wait and see what the June/July climate values are b4 raising forecast! Quiet EPac/WPac is interesting tho.



Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 27m27 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 My soft chant: Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean =)



Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
@MJVentrice maybe the new euro will change its tune tomorrow






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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 for N Atlantic Hurricane Season

#93 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:Interesting conversation between Phil Klotzbach,Michael Ventrice and Eric Blake about the future Atlantic activity.


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Early Atlantic hurricane season TCs do not guarantee active year. 2013 had 2 June TCs but only 2 hurricanes overall.




Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 29m29 minutes ago

Need to wait and see what the June/July climate values are b4 raising forecast! Quiet EPac/WPac is interesting tho.



Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 27m27 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 My soft chant: Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean =)



Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
@MJVentrice maybe the new euro will change its tune tomorrow








So, are they leaning toward it being more active or being below active? What did they mean by Indian Ocean?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 for N Atlantic Hurricane Season

#94 Postby WPBWeather » Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:29 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Interesting conversation between Phil Klotzbach,Michael Ventrice and Eric Blake about the future Atlantic activity.


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Early Atlantic hurricane season TCs do not guarantee active year. 2013 had 2 June TCs but only 2 hurricanes overall.




Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 29m29 minutes ago

Need to wait and see what the June/July climate values are b4 raising forecast! Quiet EPac/WPac is interesting tho.



Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 27m27 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 My soft chant: Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean =)



Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
@MJVentrice maybe the new euro will change its tune tomorrow








So, are they leaning toward it being more active or being below active? What did they mean by Indian Ocean?


Would you take "middle active?" :D
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 for N Atlantic Hurricane Season

#95 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Jun 07, 2016 12:34 pm

WPBWeather wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Interesting conversation between Phil Klotzbach,Michael Ventrice and Eric Blake about the future Atlantic activity.


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Early Atlantic hurricane season TCs do not guarantee active year. 2013 had 2 June TCs but only 2 hurricanes overall.




Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 29m29 minutes ago

Need to wait and see what the June/July climate values are b4 raising forecast! Quiet EPac/WPac is interesting tho.



Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 27m27 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 My soft chant: Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean =)



Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
@MJVentrice maybe the new euro will change its tune tomorrow








So, are they leaning toward it being more active or being below active? What did they mean by Indian Ocean?


Would you take "middle active?" :D


You mean 10-16/6-8/1-4 sure. lol
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 for N Atlantic Hurricane Season

#96 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:31 pm

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 for N Atlantic Hurricane Season

#97 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 29, 2016 8:12 pm

Same numbers on CSU update tomorrow.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 for N Atlantic Hurricane Season

#98 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Wed Jun 29, 2016 8:35 pm

SFLcane wrote:Same numbers on CSU update tomorrow.


What you mean?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 for N Atlantic Hurricane Season

#99 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jun 30, 2016 6:07 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Same numbers on CSU update tomorrow.


What you mean?


Keeping same numbers from June update. Lots of uncertainty in preseason outlooks but I think best call is to bet on a " normal " season. Abviously all you need is one over your area to make it a bad year.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 for N Atlantic Hurricane Season

#100 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jun 30, 2016 7:25 am

SFLcane wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Same numbers on CSU update tomorrow.


What you mean?


Keeping same numbers from June update. Lots of uncertainty in preseason outlooks but I think best call is to bet on a " normal " season. Abviously all you need is one over your area to make it a bad year.


around 10, could be 930, could be 1030...zzzzzzz
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