Expert forecasts for 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Weatherbell update out.

Total ACE: 105-135
New named storms: 11-14 (12 - 15 including Alex)
Hurricanes: 6-8
Major Hurricanes: 2-4
Chief analog years
1988, 1995, 1998, 2007 & 2010

This is the image I found of their update. A little different I think.

Looks like they are really going out on a limb with that high risk area

[TheAustinMan]

You can watch the NOAA 2016 Hurricane Season Outlook briefing at http://www.c-span.org/video/?410239-1/noaa-officials-brief-reporters-2016-hurricane-season (begins 11:30am Eastern US Time).

[TheAustinMan]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

NOAA 2016 Atlantic hurricane season forecast:

- 10-16 Named Storms, which includes Alex in January
- 4-8 Hurricanes, which includes Alex in January
- 1-4 Major Hurricanes
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median, which includes Alex in January

[Macrocane]

Basically they have no idea what's going to happen. I don't blame them, this must be one the most difficult forecasts ever.

[WPBWeather]

Basically they have no idea what's going to happen. I don't blame them, this must be one the most difficult forecasts ever.

You know, truer words have probably not been spoken. The hot vs. cold ATL argument continues; ice berg melt and fresh water theories abound; a few PAC and west coast Storm2K bloggers seem concerned that the ATL shows signs of early life.

[SFLcane]

Woah... TSR has released their updated hurricane forecast 17NS,9H,4M. ACE:130

[cycloneye]

Big jump by TSR.Link to PDF document forecast is at list at first post.

[tatertawt24]

When you're unsure, always declare a dud.

And:

Weatherbell update out.

Total ACE: 105-135
New named storms: 11-14 (12 - 15 including Alex)
Hurricanes: 6-8
Major Hurricanes: 2-4
Chief analog years
1988, 1995, 1998, 2007 & 2010

This is the image I found of their update. A little different I think.

Looks like they are really going out on a limb with that high risk area

Right?! This is the most vaguely-forecasted season ever.

[cycloneye]

CSU June forecast is up at first post.The numbers are 12/5/2 not including Alex and Bonnie.

[cycloneye]

TWC June forecast is also up.

[NDG]

I am really surprised Dr Phil K stayed with his conservative forecast. j/k

[cycloneye]

Interesting conversation between Phil Klotzbach,Michael Ventrice and Eric Blake about the future Atlantic activity.


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Early Atlantic hurricane season TCs do not guarantee active year. 2013 had 2 June TCs but only 2 hurricanes overall.




Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 29m29 minutes ago

Need to wait and see what the June/July climate values are b4 raising forecast! Quiet EPac/WPac is interesting tho.



Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 27m27 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 My soft chant: Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean =)



Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
@MJVentrice maybe the new euro will change its tune tomorrow

[tarheelprogrammer]

Interesting conversation between Phil Klotzbach,Michael Ventrice and Eric Blake about the future Atlantic activity.


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Early Atlantic hurricane season TCs do not guarantee active year. 2013 had 2 June TCs but only 2 hurricanes overall.




Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 29m29 minutes ago

Need to wait and see what the June/July climate values are b4 raising forecast! Quiet EPac/WPac is interesting tho.



Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 27m27 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 My soft chant: Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean =)



Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
@MJVentrice maybe the new euro will change its tune tomorrow

So, are they leaning toward it being more active or being below active? What did they mean by Indian Ocean?

[WPBWeather]

Interesting conversation between Phil Klotzbach,Michael Ventrice and Eric Blake about the future Atlantic activity.


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Early Atlantic hurricane season TCs do not guarantee active year. 2013 had 2 June TCs but only 2 hurricanes overall.




Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 29m29 minutes ago

Need to wait and see what the June/July climate values are b4 raising forecast! Quiet EPac/WPac is interesting tho.



Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 27m27 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 My soft chant: Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean =)



Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
@MJVentrice maybe the new euro will change its tune tomorrow

So, are they leaning toward it being more active or being below active? What did they mean by Indian Ocean?

Would you take "middle active?"

[tarheelprogrammer]

Interesting conversation between Phil Klotzbach,Michael Ventrice and Eric Blake about the future Atlantic activity.


Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Early Atlantic hurricane season TCs do not guarantee active year. 2013 had 2 June TCs but only 2 hurricanes overall.




Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 29m29 minutes ago

Need to wait and see what the June/July climate values are b4 raising forecast! Quiet EPac/WPac is interesting tho.



Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 27m27 minutes ago

@EricBlake12 My soft chant: Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean =)



Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
@MJVentrice maybe the new euro will change its tune tomorrow

So, are they leaning toward it being more active or being below active? What did they mean by Indian Ocean?

Would you take "middle active?"

You mean 10-16/6-8/1-4 sure. lol

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/748225564037644289

[SFLcane]

Same numbers on CSU update tomorrow.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Same numbers on CSU update tomorrow.

What you mean?

[SFLcane]

Same numbers on CSU update tomorrow.

What you mean?

Keeping same numbers from June update. Lots of uncertainty in preseason outlooks but I think best call is to bet on a " normal " season. Abviously all you need is one over your area to make it a bad year.

[jlauderdal]

Same numbers on CSU update tomorrow.

What you mean?

Keeping same numbers from June update. Lots of uncertainty in preseason outlooks but I think best call is to bet on a " normal " season. Abviously all you need is one over your area to make it a bad year.

around 10, could be 930, could be 1030...zzzzzzz