What caught my eye also on the High Res. Image was the cool Gulf of Guinea. That is a positive indicator for an active MDR.
Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
What caught my eye also on the High Res. Image was the cool Gulf of Guinea. That is a positive indicator for an active MDR.
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- wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
TheStormExpert wrote:What we can take from NOAA's wide range in their May 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast is that this season is unusually hard to predict. It can go basically almost anyway, their is a slight chance though this could be an slightly below average season or it could be nearly hyper-active very similar to 2010, 2011, 2012, or even 1995. The ENSO is a factor but I think the overall Atlantic conditions are going to matter most in what kind of season this will be. That's why we can't rule out 2013 as an analog though chances of that repeating itself are likely very slim.
I don't think that their number is reflective of a level of uncertainty for this season in particular. I thought they always go either 1 or 1.5 standard deviations above and below a fixed number. In this case, 14/7/3 with +/- one standard deviation.
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- ouragans
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
TSR does an update to their prediction today correct? If so at what time?
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
tarheelprogrammer wrote:TSR does an update to their prediction today correct? If so at what time?
Yes it's planned for today but I can't find any info regarding what time, if there's a press conference, or anything. I keep refreshing their page since this morning.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
TSR increases their numbers to 14/6/3.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastPreSeason2017.pdf
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastPreSeason2017.pdf
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
TheStormExpert wrote:TSR increases their numbers to 14/6/3.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastPreSeason2017.pdf
Looks like they went back to their 13 Dec 2016 prediction, but lower ACE. Still personally think it is too low, but they are likely to be correct more often than little ol me lol.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
The CSU June update will be released at 11 AM EDT on Thursday.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/869907108598251520
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/869907108598251520
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Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
CSU updated forecast just came out moments ago. They upped numbers to 14/6/2 with 100 ACE. These numbers include Arlene
Source: http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/me ... 017-06.pdf
Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
Source: http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/me ... 017-06.pdf
Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
lol don't agree with those numbers but I guess it's possible.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
SFLcane wrote:lol don't agree with those numbers but I guess it's possible.
Not surprising coming from Dr Phil, who has been fairly conservative with their numbers during the past 3 years or so.
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- wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
A little above-normal numbers-wise, but slightly below-normal ACE-wise. Look for an upward bump in the numbers in their next update (vs. all at once today).
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Nothing really to add to this post, but welcome to the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season guys!
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
This will be an interesting season to observe. Growing evidence to support an average to above average season, but still plenty of uncertainty.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Judith Curry's company CFAN released their 2017 seasonal forecast, which seems to be a newly developed model partly funded by one of their clients. Bottom line is ACE 130, with 3 US landfalls.
https://judithcurry.com/2017/06/08/cfan ... ne-season/
https://judithcurry.com/2017/06/08/cfan ... ne-season/
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- Bocadude85
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Aren't we supposed to get a update from CSU today?
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- wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Bocadude85 wrote:Aren't we supposed to get a update from CSU today?
No, their update is on July 5th.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Bocadude85 wrote:Aren't we supposed to get a update from CSU today?
July 5th:
Next Seasonal Forecast Release Date:
July 5, 2017
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 4th forecast=17/7/3
TSR goes up in the numbers in the July 4th forecast=17/7/3.
http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ly2017.pdf
http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ly2017.pdf
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