Weak remnant low southwest of Nate

[joey]

:uarrow: For some reason, the NHC has been very slow, in my view, have been greatly underestimating this system. I posted a couple of times about this already on this thread.

Well, no doubt in my mind that there is a circulation developing just south of Andros Island. There is no avoiding this now. This should have been an invest yesterday. I think we will get a possible moderate TS from this.

Yesterday there were reports of gusts to 50 mph from ship reports, and I have not checked yet this morning, but I would bet there are similar reports out in the Central Bahamas this morning.

I would be paying a bit more attention to this system for those living in South Florida the next couple of days.

agree seems to be stuck in one spot over 36 hours could the gfs have this one pegged

[gatorcane]

Vorticity is increasing:

[joey]

Vorticity is increasing:

now cmc has it over south fl at 30 hours matching the gfs now lets see if euro will

[boca]

There is a spin just SW of Andros island

[northjaxpro]

There is a spin just SW of Andros island

Yes indeed, which I already pointed out earlier this morning on this thread. The spin is becoming better defined by the hour. I will be very curious to see the next TWO from the NHC. They have been very slow raising percentages for potential development. I would definitely think now that given what we are seeing, this is a no brainer now to increase development chances now, not to forget to mention that this should have been a designated invest going back to last night.

[NDG]

There is a spin just SW of Andros island

The spin is in the mid levels, nothing at the surface other than it shooting off surface eddies westward in the strong low level flow.
The pressure gradient is producing some strong wind gusts along coastal eastern central FL, wind gusts over 40 mph reported since yesterday. Beach erosion going on with 12' waves just offshore.

[joey]

There is a spin just SW of Andros island

Yes indeed, which I already pointed out earlier this morning on this thread. The spin is becoming better defined by the hour. I will be very curious to see the next TWO from the NHC. They have been very slow raising percentages for potential development. I would definitely think now that given what we are seeing, this is a no brainer now to increase development chances now, not to forget to mention that this should have been a designated invest going back to last night.

also gaining alot more convection at this hour could this pull a fast one on us ?

[northjaxpro]

I pointed out earlier today NDG that the spin is probably mid-level atm. However, it will not take much more than another good convective burst for that spin to reach the surface, which I think will happen by late tonight or by tomorrow morning at the latest.

[galaxy401]

Uhh there appears to be a graphic error on NHC as it looks like this system has a 90% chance of developing even though text says 0%.

[tolakram]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=7737&y=6028&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Steve H.]

Regardless of a surface circulation (which looks to be closing off despite shear), this will bring heavy rain and very gusty winds to the Florida peninsula during the next couple of days, which is something that we don't need at all in Florida. This should also contribute a steering mechanism that affects TD 16, depending on how deep and which direction it ends up going.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[SFLcane]

This is some wave folks vigorous..

[joey]

This is some wave folks vigorous..

and spinning could the red x be right lllol

[gatorcane]

The graphic error is confusing. The graphic shows red X with 90% chance of development but the text indicates 0%.

[northjaxpro]

I am dunno with what the NHC is not seeing here....

I mentioned in the TD 16 models thread Steve the very point you indicated above about potential of this system affecting the future path of TD 16.

[Steve H.]

I saw that Northjax, not an original thought on my part, but if it does get deep and a surface circulation tightens up, the steering may not be what others are saying. If it does close off it may not rapidly shoot westward across the GOM, taking 16 with it, but may follow the weakness that the Euro is showing to the north. If this occurs TD 16 may not get too far west. That is a fear of mine - hope it's wrong. Irma wore me out; still hurting physically here in the Ocala area.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

also not liking this developing now. it would increase the pressure gradient already causing windy conditions for us the last couple of days, and make them even worse. Add a whole lot of rain to that, and we will have more issues with trees and limbs coming down. Took a week to get electric back after Irma, and the debris is still not cleaned up at all in our neighborhood. If this gets worse and heads NW at all, let alone if future Nate follows it closer to the FL west coast, I will not be a happy camper!

This hurricane season can end now, seriously.

[gatorcane]

what I don't get is why is it 0% chance of development? Surely it is higher than that. At least 20% (more like 40-50% if you ask me). There is some model support that would warrant something higher than 0%. Satellite pictures are looking pretty suspicious too, at least tag it as an invest.

[HurricaneBelle]

what I don't get is why is it 0% chance of development? Surely it is higher than that. At least 20% (more like 40-50% if you ask me). There is some model support that would warrant something higher than 0%. Satellite pictures are looking pretty suspicious too, at least tag it as an invest.

To be internally consistent with their track for TD16, it seems as though the NHC has thrown in with the Euro which says this either won't develop and/or will slide up the east side of Florida.

[northjaxpro]

I saw that Northjax, not an original thought on my part, but if it does get deep and a surface circulation tightens up, the steering may not be what others are saying. If it does close off it may not rapidly shoot westward across the GOM, taking 16 with it, but [may follow the weakness that the Euro is showing to the north. If this occurs TD 16 may not get too far west. That is a fear of mine - hope it's wrong. Irma wore me out; still hurting physically here in the Ocala area.

Yes Steve we are thinking alike. I would not be surprised at all if future Nate stays basically north to northeast all the way up through the Western Caribbean into the Eastern GOM. I think the disturbance in the Florida Straits may cause just enough of a weakness in the ridge to allow future Nate to go right up to the Big Bend region of Florida later this weekend.