Western Caribbean disturbance - is INVEST 90L

[LarryWx]

Major Oct H hit dates on FL since 1851: one every 16.5 years on average (all Oct Hs once every 5 years)


10/4 SON Nino 3.4 -1.00
10/6 SON Nino 3.4 -0.39
10/8 SON Nino 3.4 -0.66
10/11 SON Nino 3.4 -1.10
10/14 SON Nino 3.4 -0.80
10/18 SON Nino 3.4 -0.50
10/18 SON Nino 3.4 -0.40
10/20 SON Nino 3.4 -0.32
10/24 SON Nino 3.4 -0.30
10/25 SON Nino 3.4 -0.03

Observations:
- scattered throughout the month rather than concentrated in the 1st half
- pretty narrow Nino 3.4 for SON of -0.03 to -1.10
- 2017 is projected to be in middle of that range with avg of dynamic models -0.50 and range of best -0.3 to -0.9
- So, although nobody is predicting even a H this month, Floridians shouldn't get overly complacent just yet

Edit: After adjusting based on Nino 3.4 stats, the chance for a major H hit on FL in Oct is likely closer the 1 in 4 to 1 in 5 range for the current ENSO as compared to 1 in 16.5 for all years, combined.

[Steve]

I wouldn’t say ignore the models but I agree beyond 5 days models get quite a bit less accurate. The big Caribbean storm could come later this month or even November...way too far out for models to diagnose yet.

I don’t trust the GFS Operational for tracks or genesis in that timeframe. But the ensembles have been insisting on a move to Phase 8 of the MJO for several days. UKMet agrees, but ECMWf does not. While owning some tropical tracks, Euro has struggled with ENSO and MJO a bit.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_wh.shtml

[rickybobby]

So is there a storm forming later this week?

[Steve]

So is there a storm forming later this week?

If I was laying odds, I’d say within 10 Days.

[SFLcane]

EPS is up to 90% for TD formation 72-120hrs

[smithtim]

Water vapor looks like rotation south of Jamaica, maybe around 17N? Might be the start of what models are picking up...

[LarryWx]

FL can count her lucky stars that that disturbance which forms near Cuba is now on the Euro, too. The GFS actually lead the way! What that disturbance is doing is stretching out the energy and keeping the W Caribbean disturbance from going gangbusters per the runs having it.

Edit: Even so, the 0Z Euro does have a near hurricane (at least a strong TS) approaching the W FL panhandle at hour 150. But had that Cuban energy not caused the energy to be more spread out, this run could easily have shown a solid H threatening FL.

As it is on the Euro, it does give heavy rains and strong winds from the FL Panhandle though SE AL/SW GA NE and then heavy rains NE GA/NW SC.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z EPS is VERY active coming up from the W. Caribbean and into the NE GOM with quite a few members then hitting FL 10/7-10/11, including several Hs, between Pensacola and Sarasota. Also, one H hits N.O.

[fci]

not trusting any intensity model. that water is boiling and there wont be much upper atmosphere resistance. you could easily have a hermine or wilma like storm and track

Please. Again with the Armageddon type post.
"Hermine", "Wilma"????
"Catastrophe" in earlier post...
How about a possible sheared TS like the Pro Mets are saying?

Yes bcus they are always correct 8 days out . you might aswell just start guessing because thats what everyone else is doing. You l next 00z run could have Jupiters red spot over Conus. Thats how models work.

You cant trust model intensity. I didnt say anything about catastrophic, wilma was not the end of the world for S. Florida. but it was this time of year and that same area she came in.

This is what I was referring to from an earlier post:
“The potential for a catastrophic set up is definitely there and the energy is completely untapped.”

[chris_fit]

The 0Z EPS is VERY active coming up from the W. Caribbean and into the NE GOM with quite a few members then hitting FL 10/7-10/11, including several Hs, between Pensacola and Sarasota. Also, one H hits N.O.

Meanwhile the ECMF Operational shows a strong TS into the N GOM, decent W Shift.

[Nimbus]

Water vapor looks like rotation south of Jamaica, maybe around 17N? Might be the start of what models are picking up...

Still looks like an upper level low but keep watching the buoys..

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/915163707927355397

[toad strangler]

6z GFS much further west and very weak. Really just an open wave.

[SFLcane]

6z GFS much further west and very weak. Really just an open wave.

GFS has been garbage the ECMWF has been more consistent to this point

[ronjon]

You can see the mass of convection in the southern and central Caribbean that will push westward to form that gyre this morning. Currently there's an upper level low moving in tandem but expect that to eventually fill in the next few days.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[toad strangler]

6z GFS much further west and very weak. Really just an open wave.

GFS has been garbage the ECMWF has been more consistent to this point

The 0z ECMWF was also much further W than it has been.

[chris_fit]

Can someone tell me where we can view the GFS and ECMF Ensemble members?

[NDG]

Area of disturbed wx north of Panama is the energy that the Euro develops over the next few days.

[SFLcane]

Can someone tell me where we can view the GFS and ECMF Ensemble members?

http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/sea-level-pressure.html

[wxman57]

The rotation south of Jamaica near 16.2N / 78.7W catches my eye. ASCAT didn't indicate much there at 02Z, but it does look like a weak LLC there now. Could be what the ECMWF is developing, though I think the EC is too far west with the low Sat/Sun.