Disturbed weather in western Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS: ~9 of 20 members form a sub 1000 mb low in the W Caribbean and none of them
hit FL. This run suggests that this is a greater threat to central Cuba, Bahamas, and Bermuda as of now though there is still time for this threat to possibly shift westward to include FL (mainly south). Many of the geneses are during/near 10/28-29.

[LarryWx]

OTOH, the less reliable and often more aggressive GEPS has more sub 1000 mb TCs and almost 50% of its members reaching sub 992 mb. Three of these hit FL (S or W) between 10/28 and 10/30. Several others have their left sides brush Keys/SE FL and others are safely SE of SE FL. So, this suggests the odds slightly favoring a miss of FL to the SE but with a nontrivial threat to especially S FL. But the GEFS is a better ensemble in general.

[joey]

:uarrow: OTOH, the less reliable and often more aggressive GEPS has more sub 1000 mb TCs and almost 50% of its members reaching sub 992 mb. Three of these hit FL (S or W) between 10/28 and 10/30. Several others have their left sides brush Keys/SE FL and others are safely SE of SE FL. So, this suggests the odds slightly favoring a miss of FL to the SE but with a nontrivial threat to especially S FL.

for now we have to wait to get a atleast a invest then we have a better idea of where it goes

[psyclone]

Classic late season set up here. I'd bet on eventual development with a hurricane a good possibility.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro OP with a text book Nov climo track and much weaker than 0z

[toad strangler]

12z Euro OP shows a textbook Nov climo track through 168 and much weaker than 0z

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro MUCH weaker and further east. Almost doesn’t even develop it.

[blp]

12z Euro OP with a text book Nov climo track

Yep completely flips. Goes from slowest further west to one of the fastest furthest east crossing eastern Cuba. Need to see ensembles to figure this out.

[Shell Mound]

12z Euro MUCH weaker and further east. Almost doesn’t even develop it.

I agree with the track but not so much with the intensity. Conditions appear conducive to a much stronger system. Notably, the 12Z run has officially dropped the eastern-Pacific vortex, so that should no longer be a factor in hindering development and intensification. I think the main reason why the run is weak is that it has yet to resolve a central vortex. Once a system actually forms, I expect the ECMWF to get a much better handle on the intensity. Honestly, I see no reason why this potential system may not attain hurricane status, and major hurricane status, to boot. Outflow will be excellent thanks to the jet-exit region and anticyclone; vertical shear will be low; and moisture and heat content are excellent. I would pay more attention to the synoptic pattern on the ensembles and what it implies for the track, not so much for the (potential) intensity.

[blp]

I think the Euro track will come back West. I think Michelle is probably a good track for this one maybe a little closer to the Keys.

[NDG]

The Euro has not been at its best ever since the time period around Nate.

[sunnyday]

If the Euro track moves west, will So Fl be in line for a hit by the storm?

[AutoPenalti]

If the Euro track moves west, will So Fl be in line for a hit by the storm?

Maybe, it’s too early to tell at this point.

[Shell Mound]

If the Euro track moves west, will So Fl be in line for a hit by the storm?

One thing that concerns me is that the 12Z EPS (ensemble) mean has trended toward a more amplified mid- to upper-level pattern in the long range range, that is, days six and beyond. The latest mean shows a more pronounced trend toward a negative NAO, with attendant height rises over Greenland. This strengthens the western-Atlantic (subtropical) high at the mid levels and also deepens the trough over the north-central United States. Additionally, this process induces greater divergence over the western Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico, allowing a strong jet-exit outflow channel to develop. The trend toward a negatively tilted, northwest-to-southeast, longwave trough axis over central North America means the mid-level flow (wind vectoring) becomes more meridional, south-to-north, rather than zonal, west-to-east. This amplification would allow not only more conducive conditions over the Caribbean, but also produce a track farther northwest, and also enable the potential system to strengthen or maintain its intensity longer even as it curves into the westerlies. In other words, the setup becomes more of a Wilma- (2005) than a Michelle-type one. Conditions are going to be conducive to strengthening, so the EPS and the operational ECMWF are likely underestimating the intensity of this potential system.

[TheStormExpert]

If the Euro track moves west, will So Fl be in line for a hit by the storm?

I really don’t see the Euro track shifting west much of any. The vast majority of the 12z EPS Ensembles have this turning NE and heading over the middle of Cuba while missing FL to the south and east.

[LarryWx]

The 12 EPS members are all SE of FL with this TC.

[LarryWx]

Everyone's favorite GEFS run, the Happy Hour version, has 4 members of 20 form a TS+
that passes SE of S FL 10/29-30. But it also has 3 TCs that hit S FL/Keys 10/31-11/1. Perhaps this suggests that a slower moving TC would ultimately be a greater threat to S FL? Any opinions?

[gatorcane]

Everyone's favorite GEFS run, the Happy Hour version, has 4 members of 20 form a TS+
that passes SE of S FL 10/29-30. But it also has 3 TCs that hit S FL/Keys 10/31-11/1. Perhaps this suggests that a slower moving TC would ultimately be a greater threat to S FL? Any opinions?

Hmmm yeah saw that, slower might allow enough ridging to build back to get this close to South Florida. NAVGEM looks to have shifted more west and is slower. Looks to be moving ENE at the end:

[gatorcane]

Definitely something going on in the SW Caribbean. Saved IR loop:

[gatorcane]

Ridge/trough setup on NAVGEM: