SE CONUS Coast Watch - Now 97L

[robbielyn]

not only that, here in hernando county we have 'gusty squalls' come through and no thunder or lightening. So just saying, eventhough nothing is forming quite yet if at all, you wouldn't know it by the conditions we are experiencing although the winds were only around 25 during the squalls. We had one pass through 20 minutes ago. And yes, we do not need any rain.

[wxman57]

There's still no circulation in the Gulf. Pressures are rising. No development. Look elsewhere for Chantal.

[TheProfessor]

Storm or no storm the Euro has the northern and northeastern Gulf receiving a lot of rain over the next week, which could have implications in the future.

[MahFL]

Storm or no storm the Euro has the northern and northeastern Gulf receiving a lot of rain over the next week, which could have implications in the future.

So far today in Orange Park, I've had 0.72in of rain. The heatwave is over.

[NDG]

Just about all of the deep convection over the NE GOM collapsed and the outflow boundary from them went through my area, feels refreshing now, nothing tropical here.

[psyclone]

Just got back into town and it is a swampy mess here with standing water all over. Total saturation from this onshore flow. This pattern is expected to relent and we sure need a break. most rivers in west central florida are near or above flood stage.

[Aric Dunn]

Been driving all day.. what did i miss lol.. oh wait more people posting how there is nothing to see .. but they keep checking the thread anyway throwing in their unhelpful thoughts .. :p


Let alone the fact that no one here was expecting chantal .. just watching the tropics because you never know. Sometimes just a fun tropical low with some rain or even quick spin up td.. but hey showing surface obs from hundreds of miles away is always needed as well as its dead jim.. i suppose the transfer from short term to long term memory is something aquired ?


Happy hunting !

[Aric Dunn]

Convection collapsed during the day and the circ that was developing in the am opened due to local seabreezes. It never had the time to deepend..


Looking at it now... convection is getting an earlier start and low level convergence is increases .. local land breezes will aid in the overnight possible development of a circ by morning. Still needs to be watched.

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF wants to send a low-level vort across NE Florida into the Atlantic (2 actually that eventually consolidate) with some development off the Carolina coast:

[GCANE]

Looks like this thread maybe active into next week.
GFS keeps convection firing for some time.
Showing signs of a 850mb vort spin up on Wednesday.

[NDG]

Looks like this thread maybe active into next week.
GFS keeps convection firing for some time.
Showing signs of a 850mb vort spin up on Wednesday.

This trough over the NE GOM will be long gone by Wednesday and by Sunday morning northerly shear is going to be ripping across this area as the stacked ridge starts moving towards the SW US.

[northjaxpro]

This is why it is important to keep watching this area.. The EURO run above is proof positive of this.

This trough feature has been persistent sitting over the Northern GOM and across North Florida for about a week now. Surely, there will be several vorticies developing and traversing along the trough axis which could spin up a particular surface circulation at any juncture. . Heck, we have seen several of these vorts in the past few days, including yesterday. So I always, always look out for potential areas of mischief in the tropics, no matter what, or the circumstances at hand!! That is what my job requires first and foremost, let alone just for being on here as a member for my personal pleasure.

So yes, this thread has indeed served its purpose, and continues to do so today, to discuss and monitor potential development. Afterall, this is what Storm2K is suppose to be about, right? Or at least I thought so after 9 years of being a member on here.

[caneman]

When will this feature move off of us in the Tampa Bay area? I can't believe how many days it has rained for and how much. Reminds me of T.s. Debby. Over it.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: This is why it is important to keep watching this area.. The EURO run above is proof positive of this.

This trough feature has been persistent sitting over the Northern GOM and across North Florida for about a week now. Surely, there will be several vorticies developing and traversing along the trough axis which could spin up a particular surface circulation at any juncture. . Heck, we have seen several of these vorts in the past few days, including yesterday. So I always, always look out for potential areas of mischief in the tropics, no matter what, or the circumstances at hand!! That is what my job requires first and foremost, let alone just for being on here as a member for my personal pleasure.

So yes, this thread has indeed served its purpose, and continues to do so today, to discuss and monitor potential development. Afterall, this is what Storm2K is suppose to be about, right? Or at least I thought so after 9 years of being a member on here.

Exactly... though some chose not to discuss....

This area still a potential. And overall voticity is increasing.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

When will this feature move off of us in the Tampa Bay area? I can't believe how many days it has rained for and how much. Reminds me of T.s. Debby. Over it.

gonna be awhile yet

We could also still see some development. We are starting to get some serouis flooding in New Port Richey/Clearwater area

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Also interesting: A broad CCW circulation about 50 miles west of Tarpon Springs

Ill be watching this one all weekend with the plywood ready

[wxman57]

Still no circulation in the NE Gulf (zero chance of tropical development), but an unusual WSW wind continues. That's the reason for all the rain in Florida (and none here). That flow pattern will continue for another 6-7 days, so expect more rain there in Florida.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Still no circulation in the NE Gulf (zero chance of tropical development), but an unusual WSW wind continues. That's the reason for all the rain in Florida (and none here). That flow pattern will continue for another 6-7 days, so expect more rain there in Florida.

http://wxman57.com/images/Gulf4.JPG

Am I seeing things? On Klystron 9 It appears to be a broad circulation west of Tarpon

Or is this just wind going all over

[Aric Dunn]

Also interesting: A broad CCW circulation about 50 miles west of Tarpon Springs

Ill be watching this one all weekend with the plywood ready

Yeah definitely keep a watch on it. Nothing crazy will likely come of it. But quick spin ups and a lot of rain are of course a possibility.


I have notice the boundar has saged quite a bit farther south and is a little more tear drop looking.

Still potential for something to try and get going anywhere along that boundary and especially as it moves ne over the atlantic in a few days.

[Aric Dunn]

Still no circulation in the NE Gulf (zero chance of tropical development), but an unusual WSW wind continues. That's the reason for all the rain in Florida (and none here). That flow pattern will continue for another 6-7 days, so expect more rain there in Florida.

http://wxman57.com/images/Gulf4.JPG

Am I seeing things? On Klystron 9 It appears to be a broad circulation west of Tarpon

Or is this just wind going all over

That is currently in the mid levels. It would need a lot of sustained convection to work to the surface.