2020 WPAC Season

[Hayabusa]

Hmm GFS ensembles TC activity starting by mid or after mid July?

[1900hurricane]

I'll be on vacation then, so #LockItIn.

[doomhaMwx]

Interesting stats from NWS Guam...

https://facebook.com/NWSGuam/posts/3068781993204048

Looking ahead, we are waiting for 03W to develop. The question is: When? Here are the top 10 years with the latest formation of 03W:

1) 1975 July 27th TS 03W Mamie
2) 1998 July 25th TS 03W (No Name)
3) 2016 July 17th TD 03W
4) 1983 July 12th TY 03W Vera
4) 1973 July 12th TS 03W Clara
6) 2010 July 11th TY 03W Conson
7) 2020 July 6th or later TBD
8) 2007 July 4th TS 03W Toraji
9) 1984 July 1st TY 03W Alex
10) 1970 June 29th TS 03W Pamela

For the time being, we have reached the 7th spot once again, but, this storm hasn't occurred yet. That's why the date says July 6th or later. How much later? We don't know yet. Currently, we don’t expect any TC development in the next week. Annual storm totals for years in this list range from 20 (Near Record Low) to 32 (Near Normal) tropical cyclones in west Pacific for the year.

It sure looks likely that 2020 will be within the top 5 of latest formation of 03W.

[mrbagyo]

NCEp ensemble last 4 runs loop.

[Hayabusa]

Well, well...?

[NotSparta]

Well, well...?

https://i.imgur.com/2uVLXrT.png

https://i.imgur.com/TwcLICI.png

324 hours?

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

2020 would be a blessing if a cool neutral or la nina kicks in.

Even those average and below average years can spawn historic typhoons.

I hate to say it but maybe we need a break this year?

That brings anxiety to what 2021 might deliver.

WPAC never lets down.

[Hayabusa]

It may be a model storm, but GFS producing things like this unlike the time after Vongfong where it was reallllllly quiet means a favorable state shift to the WPAC is coming and even seasons with below average stats they still managed to produce a July TC



(oh wait I even forgot Nuri, Nuri was so boring that I considered the rest after Vongfong quiet)

[euro6208]

It's still there but time frame pushed back and weaker. 06Z had this peaking at 961 mb.

Latest run also shows a developing system near the dateline. Of course that's in fantasy land.

[euro6208]

ECMWF sensing the favorable shift. Has multiple vorticities.

[1900hurricane]

Find the Mei-yu.

[Hayabusa]

Looks like an MJO coming in later this month, I'd be very surprised if nothing really forms in the whole month of July
Even Zeb 1998, Megi 2010, and nothingburger 2017 had a July storm

[CyclonicFury]

The WPAC is behaving like the Atlantic during a typical July this July.

[euro6208]

GFS and EURO again quiet.

[euro6208]

July update out.

26 TS
14 TY
7 MT
ACE 216

Big decrease in ACE.

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

I wonder what TSR has in mind for the rest of the season when they release the next update this coming Thursday.

Back in May, they forecast 26/15/8 ACE 258.

[aspen]

July update out.

26 TS
14 TY
7 MT
ACE 216

Big decrease in ACE.

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

I wonder what TSR has in mind for the rest of the season when they release the next update this coming Thursday.

Back in May, they forecast 26/15/8 ACE 258.

I think there’s actually a decent chance the Atlantic could beat out the WPac in terms of ACE, if that prediction verifies and the Atlantic is hyperactive during ASO.

[euro6208]

Interesting post.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/international/when-will-the-tropical-western-pacific-become-active/773991

[euro6208]

The WPAC is behaving like the Atlantic during a typical July this July.

Glad for them. They must be super excited with all the hype...

[euro6208]