Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Cuba, the central and
northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic waters are
associated with a tropical wave. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida today and
tonight, over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, across
the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on
Thursday. Environmental conditions could become a little more
conducive for development of this system once it reaches the Gulf
of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0120 PM EDT MON 20 JULY 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JULY 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-055

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 21/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 21/1615Z
D. 25.0N 84.0W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 22/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
C. 22/1015Z
D. 25.5N 89.0W
E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

[St0rmTh0r]

Despite the latest 0z Euro not doing much with it it acquired a few more ensemble members for development.

https://i.imgur.com/SxEmOLk.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/zVP9Jzq.gif

That wave looks close to developing, clear spin and rotation. Any developing storm in the gulf of Mexico can be dangerous in the right conditions

[South Texas Storms]

Despite the latest 0z Euro not doing much with it it acquired a few more ensemble members for development.

https://i.imgur.com/SxEmOLk.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/zVP9Jzq.gif

And the 12z Euro Ensemble is showing even more members developing this. I think development chances are higher than 20%...maybe closer to 30-40% right now based on the latest trends.

[Aric Dunn]

the Meso model that has been nailing genesis this year.

genesis happens in 36 hours to 42 hours..



And a TS by 48 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

quite a drastic increase in EPS for 12z. first starts in 48 hours just north of CUBA.

[aspen]

If the meso/EPS results end up being correct and this develops in 36-48 hours, that’ll give it up to 48 hours over water in the Gulf. That could be enough for it to become something rather significant (possibly a strong TS), assuming other factors are favorable.

[northjaxpro]

If the meso/EPS results end up being correct and this develops in 36-48 hours, that’ll give it up to 48 hours over water in the Gulf. That could be enough for it to become something rather significant (possibly a strong TS), assuming other factors are favorable.

This is quite possible. I agree.

[aspen]

As of right now, conditions in the Gulf seem rather favorable. SSTs are broiling (no surprise), wind shear across the entire Gulf is currently <15 kt, and dry air doesn’t seem to be too prevalent. However, shear will change because much of the low shear in the central Gulf is associated with 90L. It remains to be seen how favorable the Gulf will actually be in 36-48 hours.

Another thing worth noting is a pocket of high OHC in the middle of the Gulf. However, 91L will probably miss it.

[St0rmTh0r]

the Meso model that has been nailing genesis this year.

genesis happens in 36 hours to 42 hours..

https://i.ibb.co/chybM3H/1111.gif

And a TS by 48 hours.


https://i.ibb.co/wK8ktYW/Capture.png

What position would that put it in?

[supercane4867]

Perhaps we should start our own invest designations for this site. Just name it 91K or something. Never miss a blob of convection out there in the tropics from now on.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over much of Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters. Gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves
west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is
expected to be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, the
central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and
Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[SoupBone]

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over much of Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters. Gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves
west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is
expected to be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, the
central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and
Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Hmm, if necessary. Why wouldn't it be?

[NDG]

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over much of Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters. Gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves
west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is
expected to be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, the
central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and
Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Hmm, if necessary. Why wouldn't it be?

If there is no sign of circulation yet on satellite they most times don't send a recon into it. My thinking not yet, more likely on Wednesday.

[Aric Dunn]

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over much of Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters. Gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves
west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is
expected to be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, the
central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and
Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Hmm, if necessary. Why wouldn't it be?

If there is no sign of circulation yet on satellite they most times don't send a recon into it. My thinking not yet, more likely on Wednesday.

AS you know that can change very quickly in this region especially as it goes through the straights overnight and in the morning.

may very well wake up to something to fly recon into..

[SoupBone]

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over much of Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters. Gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves
west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is
expected to be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, the
central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and
Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Hmm, if necessary. Why wouldn't it be?

If there is no sign of circulation yet on satellite they most times don't send a recon into it. My thinking not yet, more likely on Wednesday.

I definitely understand that but on Wednesday, we're less than 48 hours from landfall. Not a whole lot of time to prepare should things go south.

[toad strangler]

Hmm, if necessary. Why wouldn't it be?

If there is no sign of circulation yet on satellite they most times don't send a recon into it. My thinking not yet, more likely on Wednesday.

I definitely understand that but on Wednesday, we're less than 48 hours from landfall. Not a whole lot of time to prepare should things go south.

A month from now absolutely. July is gonna July this feature.

[Aric Dunn]

just remember that tonight and into tomorrow is when all the models open up the eastern gulf into very divergent flow aloft and convection increases. even though most are showing minimal development

appears to be abundant convection as the upper low over western cuba drops sw.

NHC can see the environment becoming conducive. better to have a plane ready just incase..

and we all know how often the unexpected occurs with genesis. already seen it 3 times year..

[Aric Dunn]

two of the HRRR's hav this a TD in 36 hours or less

[cycloneye]

No oficial invest 91L yet but all signs point to be up in the overnight or morning hours. Recon is poised for Tuesday if needed and that was why I thought the invest was comming after the TCPOD came out. I am 50/50 to lock this thread and go to pre 91L thread.