2021 Global ACE: NATL - 145.1 / EPAC - 93.6 / WPAC - 205.3 / NIO - 19.8

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/mzITSyrmXuI[/youtube]

[aspen]

As of the 5am advisories, Sam is up to 31.7 ACE and Mindulle is up to 26.8 ACE. Sam will be the winner in the ACE race; it could remain as a Cat 4 for another 36 hours, while Mindulle is a Cat 2 and weakening. Sam will also likely surpass Larry (32.8) by the 5pm advisory today, and the basin as a whole will be near 120 ACE by then.

[kevin]

As of the 5am advisories, Sam is up to 31.7 ACE and Mindulle is up to 26.8 ACE. Sam will be the winner in the ACE race; it could remain as a Cat 4 for another 36 hours, while Mindulle is a Cat 2 and weakening. Sam will also likely surpass Larry (32.8) by the 5pm advisory today, and the basin as a whole will be near 120 ACE by then.

The NHC forecast would now bring Sam to roughly 53 ACE by 120 hours (which is also probably roughly when it becomes extra-tropical). It would but Sam around Luis and Allen and thus at #7 - #8 of the highest ACE Atlantic hurricanes since 1950. It would also bring the basin to around 136 points with October still to go. Victor could bring that above 140. Who knows what happens after Sam and Victor, it could be that October is very quiet. But even something half as impressive as 2020's late season (2020 had 75 ACE in October & November) would be sufficient to push 2021 into hyperactive territory.

[cycloneye]

Sam (33.2) has surpassed Larry. (32.8)

[Category5Kaiju]

I love Sam. A good-looking, gentle giant who is not expected to hurt any landmasses and will jack up 2021's ACE by a lot.

[DioBrando]

I love Sam. A good-looking, gentle giant who is not expected to hurt any landmasses and will jack up 2021's ACE by a lot.

Larry needs some love too <3

[Zonacane]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1443626904494374913

[Category5Kaiju]

Sam contributing to 2021's ACE total (as a 150 mph 934 mbar hurricane as of this post) be like:

[RL3AO]

Current NHC forecast would add about 12 more units getting Sam above the very impressive 50 mark.

[cycloneye]

Sam getting closer to the 50 mark as of the 11 AM advisiory it has 45.7 units.

[cycloneye]

Three more to 50.

[cycloneye]

Sam is at 49.5 so at 5 PM will reach 50.

[AlphaToOmega]

18L.Sam
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 22 September 5 pm AST 30 0
2 22 September 11 pm AST 30 0
3 23 September 5 am AST 30 0
4 23 September 11 am AST 45 0.2025
5 23 September 5 pm AST 50 0.2500
6 23 September 11 pm AST 60 0.3600
7 24 September 5 am AST 65 0.4225
8 24 September 11 am AST 65 0.4225
9 24 September 5 pm AST 75 0.5625
10 24 September 11 pm AST 85 0.7225
11 25 September 5 am AST 95 0.9025
12 25 September 11 am AST 105 1.1025
13 25 September 5 pm AST 120 1.4400
14 25 September 11 pm AST 125 1.5625
15 26 September 5 am AST 125 1.5625
16 26 September 11 am AST 125 1.5625
17 26 September 5 pm AST 130 1.6900
18 26 September 11 pm AST 125 1.5625
19 27 September 5 am AST 115 1.3225
20 27 September 11 am AST 110 1.2100
21 27 September 5 pm AST 105 1.1025
22 27 September 11 pm AST 105 1.1025
23 28 September 5 am AST 115 1.3225
24 28 September 11 am AST 115 1.3225
25 28 September 5 pm AST 115 1.3225
26 28 September 11 pm AST 120 1.4400
27 29 September 5 am AST 115 1.3225
28 29 September 11 am AST 115 1.3225
29 29 September 5 pm AST 115 1.3225
30 29 September 11 pm AST 125 1.5625
31 30 September 5 am AST 125 1.5625
32 30 September 11 am AST 125 1.5625
33 30 September 5 pm AST 125 1.5625
34 30 September 11 pm AST 125 1.5625
35 1 October 5 am AST 130 1.6900
36 1 October 11 am AST 130 1.6900
35 1 October 5 pm AST 130 1.6900
38 1 October 11 pm AST 125 1.5625
39 2 October 5 am AST 115 1.3225
40 2 October 11 am AST 115 1.3225
41 2 October 5 pm AST 110 1.2100
42 2 October 11 pm AST 100 1.0000
43 3 October 5 am AST 90 0.8100
44 3 October 11 am AST 85 0.7225
45 3 October 5 pm AST 85 0.7225
Total 49.995

AL182021 (Sam) is at 49.995 ACE. Just one more advisory is required to reach the 50 ACE mark.

[cycloneye]

Sam has reached 50 ACE units at 5 PM. (50.2)

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... thatlantic

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1444788380357644293

[TallyTracker]

I guess the next question is to see if Sam has enough gas left in the tank to get us over 140 ACE. Only 2.4 to go!

[cycloneye]

Up to #8.

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1445122807390670855

[Category5Kaiju]

Hurricane Luis right now:

[Hammy]

Up to #8.

https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1445122807390670855

Still tropical as of 00z BT, TropicalAtlantic lists as 53.75 ACE so made it to #7.

[galaxy401]

Although the Atlantic will remain above normal for the year, I have to guess that the Northern Hemisphere ACE average is falling quite a bit behind average now. There is no activity at all in any of the basins with nothing forecasted for at least a week or so. When was the last time all three basins were quiet for an extended duration of time...at least from July-October?