Stormybajan wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Looks like we do have a Circ/Vort max down there.. with some towers starting to rebuild and rotate around it. the GFS showing it slowing down for the next 24 hours and has a better defined circ as well.. curious as to what happens with this.. Unfortunately, as is typical, all the SCATS missed this area lol
Update.. the 12z GFS is really really slow with moving this now.. at 60 hours its still east of the islands.
https://i.ibb.co/cYC5y14/LABELS-19700101-000000-76.gif
https://i.ibb.co/vvBShhJ/Capture.png
Thats a very interesting development there, we know the chances realistically are decreasing for development, however with the quite long moisture pocket , do you see any improvement of organization possible with diurnal maximum tonight?
The low level circ/vort max has continued to improve and convection is building back again..
also of note... the wave is not lifting all that much north and so shear will remain low until sometime tomorrow... no reason a brief sheared TD/TS could not spin up.. would not be the first time.