2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[crownweather]

Starting to think the area just off of the SE Coast and Mid-Atlantic coast may be a spot to watch for sub-tropical development next week. Non-tropical low forecast by all models to sit and spin off East Coast by early next week. In fact, Euro and Canadian model forecasts this low to sink as far south as the northern Bahamas by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Could be a player where we see Alex named before 1 June.

[AJC3]

00Z op-ECM showed much more retrogression of the stacked low SW-ward offshore the SE seaboard and across FL, compared to the op-GFS. Then the 06Z GFS came along and trended strongly toward the ECM, bringing the low into Florida in about 9 days. The solutions look quite similar at the moment. Regardless of whether the low remains an XTC or turns into some sort of hybrid/STC, this looks like it could have a significant impact along the mid Atlantic and SE US coast. Pressure gradient along the western semicircle of the low looks to bring (near) gale conditions (strong winds, high seas and surf, beach erosion, coastal flooding, etc.) to the coast, and possibly a full blown gale over the adjacent Atlantic. Stay tuned...

[SFLcane]

Almost that time....

[tropicwatch]

That would be interesting

[CyclonicFury]

In addition to the possible system off the US east coast, a signal is increasing on the GEFS and EPS for possible EPAC development in about 12-14 days. It is not uncommon for -ENSO EPAC seasons to start relatively early.

[weeniepatrol]

hmm.. that’s modeled directly over the one portion of the Epac with anomalous warmth and 30 C ssts.

Could be legit…

Nvm saw the timeframe

[Category5Kaiju]

CMC likes that potential cutoff SE CONUS system by late next week

[AlphaToOmega]

https://i.imgur.com/OwHpyQf.png

CMC likes that potential cutoff SE CONUS system by late next week

It seems as if the models seem to be backing off of this system.

[tropicwatch]

Both GFS and Euro have low pressure off the U.S. southeast coast around the 12th of May. Not as deep as previous runs.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

MJO should arrive in the Western Atlantic/EPAC by mid-late month, wondering if we could see a CAG setup by then.

[cycloneye]

MJO should arrive in the Western Atlantic/EPAC by mid-late month, wondering if we could see a CAG setup by then.
https://i.ibb.co/j8GTLZH/eps-chi200-anomaly-globe-2022050500-MEAN-360.png

Or dual areas in EPAC and West or SW Caribbean.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/OwHpyQf.png

CMC likes that potential cutoff SE CONUS system by late next week

It seems as if the models seem to be backing off of this system.

Looks like it came back to an extent on the latest GFS run:

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/OwHpyQf.png

CMC likes that potential cutoff SE CONUS system by late next week

It seems as if the models seem to be backing off of this system.

Looks like it came back to an extent on the latest GFS run:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/971906677827842088/gfs_z850_vort_watl_fh150-210_1.gif

Quite reminiscent of Danny from last year or Bertha 2020

[cycloneye]

IMO, has a good chance to be STS Alex. Gulfstream does magic things many times.

[jaxfladude]

IMO, has a good chance to be STS Alex. Gulfstream does magic things many times.

Oh yes the almost yearly Northeast Florida to the border of Georgia/South Carolina model tracker of a tropical system.

[Astromanía]

I really need this season to start as soon as posible, half of Mexico is in a severe drought, especially north Mexico. Seriously you don't want to know what feels not to have water to consume, tropical cyclones are considered as natural disasters but they are actually really benefical in many ways

[DorkyMcDorkface]

IMO, has a good chance to be STS Alex. Gulfstream does magic things many times.

https://i.imgur.com/xElwDis.gif

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1522644245315833859

[Category5Kaiju]

18z GFS still really likes the Eastern Seaboard system next week; makes landfall in Georgia as what looks to be a weak TS

[NDG]

What I am excited about the cold core low the GFS shows or showed briefly getting subtropical characteristics is that it will cool us down here in central FL with highs only in the low to mid 80s during the upcoming week after highs in the mid 90s the last few days

[skyline385]

MJO should arrive in the Western Atlantic/EPAC by mid-late month, wondering if we could see a CAG setup by then.
https://i.ibb.co/j8GTLZH/eps-chi200-anomaly-globe-2022050500-MEAN-360.png

The GEFS has been hinting at a CAG setup in the long runs but it could just end up being a typical GFS phantom.