Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)

[cane5]

I’m close to being in shock with this potential storm off the Yucatán this is essentially where Wilma rebounded back and headed for South Florida but that was in October. This defies all early storms historically following a similar path.

[NDG]

Interesting fact during the past 20 years when we have seen one of the first EPAC systems in late May/early June to develop near the same area Agatha is and then head inland towards the N or NE over southern MX/C.A. It has happened 9 times during the past 20 years, 7 of those years the Atlantic had an above average season.

[NDG]

Indeed a big difference in UL set up between the Euro and GFS, will definitely make a difference in the track and strength.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop
across Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the southwest
Gulf of Mexico in a few days, partially related to the remnants of
Hurricane Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Some gradual development
is possible within this system in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico
around mid-week or in the northwest Caribbean by the latter part of
this week as it drifts eastward or northeastward. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains will be possible across southern
Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize through the
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[jlauderdal]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop
across Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the southwest
Gulf of Mexico in a few days, partially related to the remnants of
Hurricane Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Some gradual development
is possible within this system in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico
around mid-week or in the northwest Caribbean by the latter part of
this week as it drifts eastward or northeastward. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains will be possible across southern
Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize through the
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown

https://i.imgur.com/f1xflBu.png

Mandarin alert with Florida implications in May, strange times for sure. Please refer to wxman57's post from yesterday as to the reality of the situation, there really isn't anything more to it than what he posted e,g. wet and rather weak

[NDG]

Mandarin alert with Florida implications in May, strange times for sure. Please refer to wxman57's post from yesterday as to the reality of the situation, there really isn't anything more to it than what he posted e,g. wet and rather weak

But rather aggressive on his forecasted track being 7 days out

[jlauderdal]

Mandarin alert with Florida implications in May, strange times for sure. Please refer to wxman57's post from yesterday as to the reality of the situation, there really isn't anything more to it than what he posted e,g. wet and rather weak

But rather aggressive on his forecasted track being 7 days out

Yes, this looks like a moderate TS on the higher end, very interesting setup, especially for May.

[toad strangler]

I’m close to being in shock with this potential storm off the Yucatán this is essentially where Wilma rebounded back and headed for South Florida but that was in October. This defies all early storms historically following a similar path.

The track as depicted by most models is well within climo norms for June. That combined with the expected weak and sheared nature of whatever develops, or almost develops, there shouldn’t be any shock at all.

[jlauderdal]

I’m close to being in shock with this potential storm off the Yucatán this is essentially where Wilma rebounded back and headed for South Florida but that was in October. This defies all early storms historically following a similar path.

Well, Wilma was a late October storm. There are zero things here to compare with that beast except partial general area of the basin that Wilma traversed.

The track as depicted by most models is well within climo norms for June. That combined with the expected weak and sheared nature of whatever develops, or almost develops, there shouldn’t be any shock at all.

Wilma was very low end cat 1 and most of south Florida never saw hurricane-force winds yet the real effects were huge. However, the infrastructure is different now as a result of Wilma, gas stations with generators and the poles grid including poles has been hardened significantly...I was out of power for 36 hours in IRMA, 10 days in WIlma. Different storm but the effects in Irma would have been far worse with WIlma infrastructure.

[NDG]

I’m close to being in shock with this potential storm off the Yucatán this is essentially where Wilma rebounded back and headed for South Florida but that was in October. This defies all early storms historically following a similar path.

Well, Wilma was a late October storm. There are zero things here to compare with that beast except partial general area of the basin that Wilma traversed.

The track as depicted by most models is well within climo norms for June. That combined with the expected weak and sheared nature of whatever develops, or almost develops, there shouldn’t be any shock at all.

Wilma was very low end cat 1 and most of south Florida never saw hurricane-force winds yet the real effects were huge. However, the infrastructure is different now as a result of Wilma, gas stations with generators and the poles grid including poles has been hardened significantly...I was out of power for 36 hours in IRMA, 10 days in WIlma. Different storm but the effects in Irma would have been far worse with WIlma infrastructure.

Wilma was stronger than a low end Cat 1, per the NHC:

The highest sustained wind measured at an official surface observing site in Florida was a
15-min average speed of 80 kt from a South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD)
observation site, L006, in Lake Okeechobee. It should be noted that another SFWMD platform,
LZ40, located only about 5 n mi north of L006 recorded a 15-min wind speed of 79 kt at the
same time. It is reasonable to assume that these measurements correspond to a 1-min average
wind speed of at least 90 kt. A number of official surface wind observation (ASOS) sites in
Miami-Dade and Broward Counties stopped reporting data at their highest noted sustained wind
speeds, such as Opa-Locka Airport at 74 kt and Pompano Beach Airport at 72 kt. It is likely that
higher sustained wind speeds occurred at these sites. Data from the Miami WSR-88D Doppler
radar indicated a peak velocity of 138 kt at an elevation of about 5000 ft over western Broward
County. A comparison of Doppler velocities with co-located, official 2-min and 1-min surface
wind measurements in Miami-Dade in Broward Counties suggests that the ratios of surface to
5000 ft sustained wind velocities over southeastern Florida in Wilma were likely in the range of
0.65 to 0.70. This would result in a maximum surface wind speed estimate of 90-95 kt.
Based on the surface observations and the Doppler data it can be concluded that most of
the southeastern Florida peninsula experienced at least category 1 hurricane conditions, and that
some parts of northern Miami-Dade County, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties likely had
category 2 hurricane conditions, including wind gusts to near 100 kt, at the standard 10 m height
above ground. It is expected that the upper floors of the many high rise buildings in South
Florida experienced wind speeds greater than occurred there at 10 m.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL252005_Wilma.pdf

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, let's return to the topic on hand here and that is the possible development of a broad low from Bay of Campeche to NW Caribbean.Thank you.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Going to be hard to consolidate with all that shear... my bet is on the short-term the GFS ends up being correct with consolidating happening near/past Florida and in the Atlantic.

[NDG]

06z Euro continues to show a not so bad UL set up, almost typical for this time of the year in which UL divergence helps to get the surface low to develop, while it tracks over the Yucatan P. to be a broad low pressure with several vorticities rotating around it. A very wet event coming for most of the FL Peninsula for sure.

[boca]

It’s up in the air on which model to believe with the GFS going through the Florida straits and the Euro hitting the west coast of Florida. It will be interesting which upper air pattern pans out and which model will be correct.

[cane5]

NDG do you have a timeframe ?

[SFLcane]

06z Euro continues to show a not so bad UL set up, almost typical for this time of the year in which UL divergence helps to get the surface low to develop, while it tracks over the Yucatan P. to be a broad low pressure with several vorticities rotating around it. A very wet event coming for most of the FL Peninsula for sure.

https://i.imgur.com/wud2jOz.png

Most levels are missing. Show the shear plot

[CourierPR]

Weather Bell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi says TS for Florida peninsula.

[SFLcane]

Weather Bell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi says TS for Florida peninsula.

Please share.

[AutoPenalti]

Meh, don’t really see much in the way of this system, GFS might be off a lot of times but I think it’s handling this a little better now. The worst we can get out of this is a derecho-scale weather.

[NDG]

06z Euro continues to show a not so bad UL set up, almost typical for this time of the year in which UL divergence helps to get the surface low to develop, while it tracks over the Yucatan P. to be a broad low pressure with several vorticities rotating around it. A very wet event coming for most of the FL Peninsula for sure.

https://i.imgur.com/wud2jOz.png

Most levels are missing. Show the shear plot

It shows 200-850mb shear of 19 knots, what more do you need?