Tropical Wave moving over the Yucatan (Is invest 99L)

[Steve]

Agree Bob, but let’s see what happens overnight. Since it’s afternoon, I’d expect more lift over land.

[Nimbus]

The system looks to be disorganised so far and is trying to settle on which rotation for it to settle on. Where the ECWMF have it close to Mexico interestingly the GFS is showing a much more disorganised system head more towards north west Gulf coast.

Belize radar loop

https://imgur.com/mmXEuDC

GOES-16 Geo-Colour Loop


https://imgur.com/58vNfnZ

GEOS-16 X-ray view (Optical Depth)

https://imgur.com/EfPpPEI

Looking at the water vapor loop there is still an upper level low off the Tex/Mex border that will provide light shear. Anticyclonic high over the system so how this pair migrates or if the ULL lifts out will be key to the forecast. Shallow system probably wouldn't get much steering from the low initially but this looks like it could evolve several different ways. See what the NHC thinks.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atl&product=wv_mid

[jasons2k]

A lot hinges on if the vorticity further south can maintain itself all the way to the BOC as the dominant one, or if convection overnight tonight over the water pulls the dominant vorticity further to the north and more out into the open GOM. The next 16-20 hours will probably determine the ultimate fate of this system in several ways.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to
move across Central America during the next day or two and emerge
over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could form
on Friday. Some gradual development of this system is possible
while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Flynn/Pasch

[BobHarlem]

This looks healthier than expected this morning

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1560228183697498112

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms is associated with
a tropical wave located over northern Guatemala. This system is
forecast to move across Central America and southeastern Mexico
through tonight before emerging over the Bay of Campeche on Friday,
where an area of low pressure could form. After that, additional
slow development of this system is possible while it moves
northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[SoupBone]

Thankfully, this thing is gonna run out of time to do anything significant.

[jaguars_22]

What are the chances this comes up to the Texas coast?

[aspen]

If soon-to-be-99L continues firing off deep convection by the time it reaches the BoC, we might have to worry about a rapid spin-up. It doesn’t look nearly as elongated as how 98L started off as, and it still managed to become a TD.

[Wampadawg]

What are the chances this comes up to the Texas coast?

My humble uneducated thoughts would be if it stays unorganized we may see on benicial rain

[jaguars_22]

Well if this thing can manage to stay on the east side of guidance then I believe the chances are higher! If this thing looks like this tomorrow in the bay of Campeche it could have 24 hours of good conditions. Idk storms like this can sneak up on people…

[Edwards Limestone]

This looks healthier than expected this morning

https://i.imgur.com/6CSN8wT.gif

Relatively flat topography in front of it as well in that part of Mexico. Should have no trouble organizing.

Here we go!

[kevin]

So far it still looks very healthy despite being over land. If it has enough time over water I can definitely see this becoming a NS. I can remember in previous years where all we/I did was stare at models and then something pops up in the short-term that none of them really hinted at.

[SoupBone]

I can assure you, that if this was going to be a surprise system, more agencies and weather orgs would be discussing it. They're not at the moment.

[tropicwatch]

I can assure you, that if this was going to be a surprise system, more agencies and weather orgs would be discussing it. They're not at the moment.

It does look impressive over land and if it continues looking like that over the Bay of Campeche. That will change very quickly.

[Stormcenter]

Then it wouldn’t be a surprise.

I can assure you, that if this was going to be a surprise system, more agencies and weather orgs would be discussing it. They're not at the moment.

[Wampadawg]

I can assure you, that if this was going to be a surprise system, more agencies and weather orgs would be discussing it. They're not at the moment.

It does look impressive over land and if it continues looking like that over the Bay of Campeche. That will change very quickly.

Doesn’t the word surprise mean that no one was expecting it lol

[SoupBone]

Then it wouldn’t be a surprise.

I can assure you, that if this was going to be a surprise system, more agencies and weather orgs would be discussing it. They're not at the moment.

Yeah I knew that was coming when I wrote it.

My point is that there's no one sounding any alarms on this one.

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Gulf:
Tropical wave and mid level circulation that was over the far SW Caribbean Sea yesterday has moved inland over Belize and the southern Yucatan overnight. Vigorous deep convection has developed with this feature over northern Belize into the southern Yucatan overnight and this morning and overall the satellite appearance looks fairly impressive IR Satellite Loop for Western Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits Belize radar out of Philip Goldson Airport does not indicate any low level circulation associated with the mid level circulation and surface observations confirm this. With that said, this feature is highly active with convection, moreso than forecast models have been suggesting and yet most show little to no development of this feature as it moves over the southern Gulf starting tomorrow and then NW over the weekend. NHC has slightly increased the development probabilities to 30% over the next 5 days over the southwest Gulf. We shall see where this feature moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche on Friday and if convection maintains its current cycle and development chances increase some. For now, just an increase in moisture for this weekend with the wave axis moving inland somewhere in NE MX or S TX, but I am not convinced the models are handling this feature well so it should be watched over the next few days once over the southern Gulf.