Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[Cpv17]

You gotta start somewhere. 20% is plausible. It could easily go up just as easily as it could go down imo.

[SFLcane]

I'm sure that the GFS is right THIS time. Go back to previous runs on Tropical Tidbits and search for any consistency. Almost certainly another modelcane. Besides, I cancelled hurricane season so I could get some rest.

A modelcane circled by the NHC?

Yeah, just like the big, strong wave to the east which the GFS had as a major hurricane. NHC now at 0%. A 20% means models indicate something may form, but development appears unlikely.

Guess this season is just that a big " Modelcane" .

[MississippiWx]

While the GFS is the only model blowing this up, it's also the only model going far enough to take it into the Gulf so far. There are ensemble members from other models that show this area developing, so the GFS isn't on an island for on its own for development. It is primetime for hurricane season and this area is traditionally favorable this time of the year. I'd pay this a lot more respect than July GFS-canes in the Western Caribbean. This is also not fighting the dry and stable airmass off the coast of Africa.

[NDG]

12z euro is not really picking up on this, but Euro has historically done poorly with systems that come out of this ITCZ area.

But is trending towards it little by little.

[Kingarabian]

Isn't this the same system the CMC and the GFS were developing and affecting the GOM, last week?

[Cpv17]

Isn't this the same system the CMC and the GFS were developing and affecting the GOM, last week?

You know what, I think you may be right..

[skyline385]

Isn't this the same system the CMC and the GFS were developing and affecting the GOM, last week?

Same system yes, and the ICON as well


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[SoupBone]

12Z CMC does nothing with this, fwiw.

[StPeteMike]

Isn't this the same system the CMC and the GFS were developing and affecting the GOM, last week?

You know what, I think you may be right..

I believe the system was forecasted around the 27th, though it came more from the northern coast of Columbia.

[toad strangler]

12z euro is not really picking up on this, but Euro has historically done poorly with systems that come out of this ITCZ area.

But is trending towards it little by little.

https://i.imgur.com/KNTRWnf.gif

I don't see any trend there but I wouldn't put much faith in the Euro if there was.

[lsuhurricane]

Euro ensembles appear to ramp this up near Jamaica, albeit on a much more western approach. Very active, similar to 0z ensembles. Perhaps a bit more eastern based. Multiple hurricanes in the GOM on this run. Looks like we've got a player.

[NDG]

Isn't this the same system the CMC and the GFS were developing and affecting the GOM, last week?

Not really unless they were a little too fast on its progression westward, they had it in the western Caribbean/southern GOM by this weekend.

[sma10]

Euro ensembles appear to ramp this up near Jamaica, albeit on a much more western approach. Very active, similar to 0z ensembles. Perhaps a bit more eastern based. Multiple hurricanes in the GOM on this run. Looks like we've got a player.

But what percentage of the 51 members actually show development?

[skyline385]

Levi is on it as well, maybe we see a video if there is some potential

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1562159341846679552





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[ScottNAtlanta]

Is this the system that comes from the cold surge off of South America causing vorticity?

[NDG]

12Z CMC does nothing with this, fwiw.

It sends the TW quickly straight west towards C.A. and battling windshear before it can do anything, with a much stronger mid level ridge to the north of it.

[lsuhurricane]

Euro ensembles appear to ramp this up near Jamaica, albeit on a much more western approach. Very active, similar to 0z ensembles. Perhaps a bit more eastern based. Multiple hurricanes in the GOM on this run. Looks like we've got a player.

But what percentage of the 51 members actually show development?

Not counting them individually, but much higher than any prior run.

[NDG]

Is this the system that comes from the cold surge off of South America causing vorticity?

Yes, from the ITCZ.
Hate to call it a cold surge, more like a wind surge from a cold high pressure further south over southern S.A. and southern Atlantic.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Is this the system that comes from the cold surge off of South America causing vorticity?

Yes, from the ITCZ.
Hate to call it a cold surge, more like a wind surge from a cold high pressure further south over central S.A.

That's what they were calling it on Twitter, but supposedly it can be a plus for development

[Blown Away]

12z GFS ensembles, seems there are 2 camps with this disturbed weather:

Develop E of the islands and generally move towards GA, Bahamas. CONUS.

Stay a TW into W Caribbean and then into CA or stronger members towards Texas...