Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

[NDG]

TW still has good low level vorticity this morning.

[cycloneye]

Let's see if it can survive the dry air.

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1568604916838703112

[Nimbus]

Also noticed the ridging to the north building back in.
Invest 95 decided to go streaking naked after Earl thus exiting too far north and too quickly to leave a weakness.

[Category5Kaiju]

Um, when was the last notable time the NHC monitored a wave, dropped its formation chances to 0, but then raised the odds of the system forming some days later?

[cycloneye]

European has 60% to 70% probability for this wave to be TD.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1568594027716710400

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS shows a hostile environment north of the Islands and into the Bahamas in the 6-10 day shear animation:

[Category5Kaiju]

The 12Z GFS shows a hostile environment north of the Islands and into the Bahamas in the 6-10 day shear animation:

https://i.postimg.cc/kGX8wKXw/gfs-shear-watl-fh168-240.gif

Euro vs GFS battle begins I see

[LarryWx]

European has 60% to 70% probability for this wave to be TD.

https://i.imgur.com/0u9Ms86.jpg

1. The EPS has been quite active with this on many runs since the Mon 9/5 0Z run. Here is a quote of mine from the Models thread on 9/5:

"The 12Z EPS looks a bit menacing with this AEW position at 240, especially considering the high to the north moving west with this. The highest concentration of members with surface lows is right where the 12Z Euro op is at 240. Note that a number of members that earlier in the run were moving WNW curl back to a westerly heading. That is a recipe to bring AEWs into the western basin.

This run has ~40% of its members with surface lows from this AEW. The prior run had ~60%. So, a tick down fwiw."


2. GEFS has also had very active runs since then.

Also from 9/5:
"The 12Z GEFS, like the previous two runs, has a good number of strong members from this AEW coming off 9/7-8 with 8 of 31 that become hurricanes. The timing is slightly slower and the mean position a bit NE of the prior two runs meaning less threat to the NE Caribbean."

From 9/6:
"For the same AEW, the 0Z GEFS is by far the most active run yet with more than half the 31 members with hurricanes. About half of those recurve harmlessly, but the others threaten at least the Caribbean 9/15-17+ fwiw."

3. GFS from 9/6:
"0Z GFS has this as a hurricane in the MDR after hardly doing anything with it on previous runs."

4. The 12Z 9/4 UKMET run was the first model to have TC genesis from this. All but one run 12Z 9/4 through 12Z 9/8 had this. Now, the last 4 UKMET runs have dropped it.

5. SAL is now as expansive in the MDR as I've seen all season with it covering almost all of it from 35W to 60W down all of the way as far south as 9N!

6. Models in general including ensemble means have been weaker and weaker when comparing run to run for the same timeframe. They keep delaying genesis to later times.

7. Never say never as nobody knows what will happen for sure. But I think it is important to remind members of what models have been doing with this for the last 6 days going back to that first UKMET run with it.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z Euro moving toward the GFS solution which keeps this weak due to unfavorable conditions:

[cycloneye]

This thread for the wave was made as NHC had it at TWO, but later they took it off. The thread will remain open for the members to make comments or post model runs,unless it becomes a invest down the road.

[AtlanticWind]

Some Popcorn convection this evening.
Have a feeling we will be talking about this one down the road.

[cycloneye]

Some more popcorn than earlier today.

[AutoPenalti]

Some more popcorn than earlier today.

https://i.imgur.com/0O5ASSH.gif

DMIN hitting right now

[LarryWx]

Is it my imagination or did this look kind of impressive at DMAX when it was near 10N, 38-39W? It had had decent convection in a somewhat circular shape. The convection has waned since as we head toward DMIN but it still looks better than it did 24 hours ago. It is now near 10N, 40W, and it looks like it still may have pretty tight vorticity.
Any other opinions? Regardless, SAL remains very dominant nearby just to its NW in the MDR.

[Steve H.]

This area does have my attention. Convection has been slowly increasing over the last 12 or so hours and it’s kind of in a sweet spot. Bears watching imo. Besides, nothing much else to watch except the area north of Panama .

[Category5Kaiju]

So…you’re telling me that this could be a sleeper wave?

[LarryWx]

So…you’re telling me that this could be a sleeper wave?

Only a slight chance. I wouldn't get too excited as SAL/stratocumulus/stability is just to its NW. It had about 5 days ago had quite a bit of interest from the EPS and GEFS with one run of GEFS having over half its members developing into a hurricane from this, but has since gotten much weaker on all models other than the typically overbullish ICON. The UKMET was the first model to form a TD from this exactly one week ago but hasn't had it doing anything the last four runs (ending with today's 0Z).

[LarryWx]

Look at this. The UKMET (12Z), which was the first model to develop this exactly one week ago, just brought this back after four runs without it. It has it as a TS moving WNW in the E Caribbean at the end of the run after forming east of the Lesser Antilles at hour 90:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.09.2022

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 16.7N 53.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2022 96 17.0N 55.1W 1009 36
0000UTC 16.09.2022 108 16.3N 57.9W 1008 37
1200UTC 16.09.2022 120 16.9N 60.0W 1008 38
0000UTC 17.09.2022 132 16.9N 62.2W 1007 32
1200UTC 17.09.2022 144 17.6N 64.4W 1006 37

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1569001579994562566