Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[SFLcane]

GFS has this forming around 50hrs and steady strengthing.

[SFLcane]

Down to 1000mb...

[tolakram]

That is suspect IMO. The GFS magically spins up a storm from an unfocused area of vorticity. Might be the typical GFS phantom.

[SFLcane]

That is suspect IMO. The GFS magically spins up a storm from an unfocused area of vorticity. Might be the typical GFS phantom.

https://i.imgur.com/QcOKgSH.gif

This is not suspect its clearly from the wave at 50w.

[PTrackerLA]

Lemon coming up this afternoon for sure . I think the GFS is way too quick with development but the fact this shows up in all the other models gives me cause for concern.

[AutoPenalti]

That is suspect IMO. The GFS magically spins up a storm from an unfocused area of vorticity. Might be the typical GFS phantom.

https://i.imgur.com/QcOKgSH.gif

It's the wave east of the Antilles

[SFLcane]

GFS has this one pegged in my opinion.

[tolakram]

That is suspect IMO. The GFS magically spins up a storm from an unfocused area of vorticity. Might be the typical GFS phantom.

https://i.imgur.com/QcOKgSH.gif

This is not suspect its clearly from the wave at 50w.

Yep. clearly from a wave, not what I meant by unfocussed. So higher chance that a random gyre spinup perhaps, but still might be a phantom.

[PTrackerLA]

[PTrackerLA]

GFS has this one pegged in my opinion.

Makes me think back to 2020 and how the models seemed to miss everything. I would not discount the GFS at this time at all.

[skyline385]

It’s also in the CMC but gets slammed into SA. Regardless very likely we get a lemon soon if this trend continues, probably even today. ICON was already on board in the 0Z and 6Z runs and it even popped up on the 06Z Euro.




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[tolakram]

Visible: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=taw&band=02&length=12

SLIDER closeup: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=16202&y=8982&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Iceresistance]

GFS has this one pegged in my opinion.

Makes me think back to 2020 and how the models seemed to miss everything. I would not discount the GFS at this time at all.

We may have another sleeper wave, the models were not picking it up very well until recently.

[Pelicane]

Assuming this spins up, the Caribbean at large looks to have very minimal shear. Pretty vintage La Nina look.

[SFLcane]

This could be a go folks.. even Some curvature now.

[chris_fit]

Strongest run yet through 162

[Blown Away]

GFS says there could be a hurricane in the Caribbean in five days, I think a yellow lemon is warranted at 2 PM.

[Iceresistance]

The GFS is maintaining the intensity of this system as a strong TS (Mid-990s mb) before it reaches the Western Caribbean, I'm really not liking this trend.

[AutoPenalti]

Here comes the curve.

[SFLcane]

Turns NW.