Tropical Wave in the SE GOMEX (Is Invest 91L)

[Nimbus]

Looks like a broad area of low pressure thunderstorms are forming then blowing off outflow boundaries. I couldn't see a clear wave axis or apex to track. There is moisture in the gulf now but any system drawing inflow near Texas is going to get dry air. I'll leave running the track up and down the coastline like a wild pony to the models for now.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I’m soooooo glad I booked a vacation for the 21-25 in Port Aransas. $1400 for the house and $700 for the golf cart 4 day rental. We will just have to make the best of it. Hopefully they don’t shut down the ferries Monday before we can get on the island. Yay

You can go down to I-37 and cut across Corpus to South Padre and come back north to Port A. to avoid the ferry. Sometimes we prefer that route when the ferry wait is long.

Next week could get interesting for sure.

Just couldn’t help but put this in more details. Take 37 to South Padre Island Drive (SPID or Texas State Highway 358). Take that all the way down, across the causeway, to Texas State Highway 361 in North Padre, then go north on 361 until you reach Port A.

As for talk about this storm, I hope this thing can find its way to South Central Texas and drop some needed rain on us (Sorry Corpus).

[Wampadawg]

Icon back on board ?

[cycloneye]

Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located just north of Hispaniola is
forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, where a
broad area of low pressure could form. Some slow development of this
system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and approaches
the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Stratton23]

Looks like the 18z Euro is coming through with a stronger surface reflection through hour 72, little more stronger than the 12z run through the same time

[cycloneye]

18z Euro until 90 hours.

[tolakram]

Pretty strong upper level winds as this makes its way across the gulf.

[IcyTundra]

Like many have already said the models can have issues with small home grown systems like this one. I definently think that the system will be stronger than the GFS has been showing and probably closer to what the Euro has been showing (perhaps even more developed than the euro is showing).

Conditions are pretty favorable per the 18Z Euro

[Rgv20]

18zECMWF Control Run has the TC blob heading to the lower texas coast by tuesday evening. Hopefully we get some decent rains as the summer has been brutal for deep south texas.

[capNstorms]

Seems like the stationary front is moving out the way according to the NHC 72hr

[capNstorms]

Not buying the weak storm models, this one might be concerning for TX and LA... rapid intensification, Maria, Harvey. Not writing this one off due to models going bipolar

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1692334767906369821

[jasons2k]

Not buying the weak storm models, this one might be concerning for TX and LA... rapid intensification, Maria, Harvey. Not writing this one off due to models going bipolar

The limiting factor will be dry air. But still needs watching.

[Ianswfl]

18zECMWF Control Run has the TC blob heading to the lower texas coast by tuesday evening. Hopefully we get some decent rains as the summer has been brutal for deep south texas.

https://i.imgur.com/I7DCpQj.png

https://i.imgur.com/wJPNBai.png

Looks like a Tropical storm hitting SEFL too.

[capNstorms]

Not buying the weak storm models, this one might be concerning for TX and LA... rapid intensification, Maria, Harvey. Not writing this one off due to models going bipolar

The limiting factor will be dry air. But still needs watching.

GOM isn't dry. Right now there is dry air over land, but that will get pushed out the way

[Wampadawg]

Not buying the weak storm models, this one might be concerning for TX and LA... rapid intensification, Maria, Harvey. Not writing this one off due to models going bipolar

The limiting factor will be dry air. But still needs watching.

Hell ya dry air thats what has all of us going lunney tunes down here.Lets hope that changes soon

[TomballEd]

Realistically, a moderate wave to a low end TS is where this forms. 1 or 2 inches of rain, not enough to break a near 7 week rainless spell and 4 weeks over 100F spell.

I want to be wrong. But even the 18Z Euro and ensembles, while not giving up, are backing away from the more aggressive solutions https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=watl&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2023081718&fh=144

[Cpv17]

Realistically, a moderate wave to a low end TS is where this forms. 1 or 2 inches of rain, not enough to break a near 7 week rainless spell and 4 weeks over 100F spell.

I want to be wrong. But even the 18Z Euro and ensembles, while not giving up, are backing away from the more aggressive solutions https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=watl&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2023081718&fh=144

The 18z Euro and its ensembles actually came in a bit more bullish than prior runs.

[Stratton23]

Call me crazy, but I have just a get feeling this wave is going to surprise us, Ive seen this story before, the gulf can be very very tricky sometimes, maybe it throws a curveball with this one

[BobHarlem]

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