Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[HurricaneBelle]

Not the kind of orange I wanted with breakfast

[NDG]

A bit more active on the 06z GFS ensembles compared to 00z:
https://i.imgur.com/v4JDJby.gif

Weak still. 00z euro ensembles more tame too, not those cat4s earlier runs had. Icon 6z came in weaker too. Could see a cat1 i think.if it's gfs path into tampa or sarasota like these ensembles members could be some nice rains. Swfl members would still be a problem with recovery efforts.

Way too early to know for sure the strength of it once it comes out of NW Caribbean but one thing for sure is that now the Euro ensembles are not as spread out over the GOM as earlier runs, more agreement on a development and possible heading.

[GCANE]

CAPE around 2000 to 3000 currently in the east GoM.
Around Tuesday, it looks like it will be about 4000 to 5000.
However, a ULL is forecast by GFS to be in the east GoM then.
Likely, this is why GFS currently doesn't do much with it.
Euro on the other hand has the ULL much further west in the GoM.
Looks far enough away to enhance outflow.
Something to watch how the models trend.

[Iceresistance]

Not the kind of orange I wanted with breakfast

https://i.imgur.com/XB5jT3u.jpg

Okay, I will admit that this was actually funny.

[CronkPSU]

surprised they haven't classified it as an invest yet

[GCANE]

The ULL is strengthening and moving from the Yucatan into the BoC

[AutoPenalti]

The ULL is strengthening and moving from the Yucatan into the BoC

A chance that the GFS may verify?

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1694715496946659367

[GCANE]

The ULL is strengthening and moving from the Yucatan into the BoC

A chance that the GFS may verify?

Watching carefully how it trends next few runs

[wxman57]

There is no disturbance in the Caribbean now. The feature the Euro develops has just moved north out of the East Pacific into western Nicaragua. There can't be any circulation developing in the Caribbean, as that guy tweeted a few posts up. Look at the 850mb vorticity in the EC and you'll see it tracking north across western Nicaragua today, across Honduras tonight, and lying east of Belize Friday morning. It's near Cancun/Cozumel by sunrise Saturday, where it stalls for a day or two while it organizes.

[Ianswfl]

https://i.postimg.cc/KYNYwvB1/gggg.png

Looks like the 06z ensembles shifted east a tad. Imo landfall around Pasco county. Entire west coast in the dirtt side

[SFLcane]

There is no disturbance in the Caribbean now. The feature the Euro develops has just moved north out of the East Pacific into western Nicaragua. There can't be any circulation developing in the Caribbean, as that guy tweeted a few posts up. Look at the 850mb vorticity in the EC and you'll see it tracking north across western Nicaragua today, across Honduras tonight, and lying east of Belize Friday morning. It's near Cancun/Cozumel by sunrise Saturday, where it stalls for a day or two while it organizes.

Makes sense! Thanks

[BobHarlem]

[GCANE]

Good shear gradient over Honduras.
Should see some strong thunderstorms popup this afternoon and likely push out into the water.

[cycloneye]

surprised they haven't classified it as an invest yet

Two things about this. #1, is still in the EPAC side, and #2, it only has 10% in 2 days. Normally, is between 20% and 40% the window to have a invest up.

[Hurricaneman]

This seems to be moving into Nicaragua and will be in Honduras this afternoon sometime

[zal0phus]

If this gets named I hope it gets Jose instead of Idalia. I've gotten very sick of Gulf storms with I names these past few years.

[Category5Kaiju]

If this gets named I hope it gets Jose instead of Idalia. I've gotten very sick of Gulf storms with I names these past few years.

Technically it would be Jose, but no we just had to have an unnamed storm in early January

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS showing some sort of 850mb vort now.

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