Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[Cpv17]

I think one of the big problems the GFS is having right now is showing the atlantic and this wave convectively dead , while having the energy focused in the EPAC with the MJO still stuck in that region, this is a problem on the GFS because ira trying to hold back the MJO from propagating into the atlantic thus showing most of the energy focused in the EPAC, thats one reason why the GFS maybe doing poor with this wave that the euro and CMC develop

Correct. This is a known bias with the GFS.

[LarryWx]

0Z:
-CMC high end TS FL panhandle late 8/5

-Euro forms into a TD just NE of Bahamas, becomes a cat 1 H, recurves 250 miles SE of NC OB, and approaches SE Newfoundland at 240. EPS not out yet

-ICON, UK, GFS: no TC

-GEFS: only one member with a TC (vs ~3 on 12Z/18Z)

[Keldeo1997]

0Z:
-CMC high end TS FL panhandle late 8/5

-Euro forms into a TD just NE of Bahamas, becomes a cat 1 H, recurves 250 miles SE of NC OB, and approaches SE Newfoundland at 240. EPS not out yet

-ICON, UK, GFS: no TC

-GEFS: only one member with a TC (vs ~3 on 12Z/18Z)

I will say on the GFS. If there is something there its going to land with that ridge.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/1817321469774381160

[chaser1]

 https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/1817321469774381160

Well, let's not lose sight of good 'ol terra-firma. Land has a tendency to "stop it from really getting going"

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro ensemble: maybe not quite as active as prior 2 runs but still active and once again supports its operational with about all of the TCs hitting or nearby US E coast; good number of landfalls upper SC or NC with a few in the NE US

[mantis83]

up up and away on the 0z euro, pretty consistent trend.....

[Stratton23]

mantis83 nope, you are focusing too much one one model output, the CMC has a completely different solution, its still early in the game and the steering pattern certainly is not even close to being set in stone, any change in strength of the ridges and or position and timing of the trough/weakness can have a huge affect on a track

[LarryWx]

mantis83 nope, you are focusing too much one one model output, the CMC has a completely different solution, its still early in the game and the steering pattern certainly is not even close to being set in stone, any change in strength of the ridges and or position and timing of the trough/weakness can have a huge affect on a track

Of course it is still pretty early. But 3 Euro ops in a row have been consistent and 2 Euro ensemble runs in a row have very well supported the Euro ops. The CMC has also been consistent in the GOM with last 3 runs having a TC there, but it isn’t as good a model as the Euro and its ensemble.

[caneman]

Most systems coming from this direction and approach do in fact curve away and with the EUROs track record, I see nothing to lead me to believe that it wont be right. It's the rare one that sneaks through but time will tell and it's still early so we will see.

[jlauderdal]

up up and away on the 0z euro, pretty consistent trend.....

The NHC is tossing the strong euro solution,for now. Interesting they are going with GFS type of solution even though there isn't much model support. We are seeing a blend of good old-fashioned meteorology and high tech with the models.

[Frank P]

up up and away on the 0z euro, pretty consistent trend.....

The NHC is tossing the strong euro solution,for now.

Yeah I think so to for the time being, I would think that elongated yellow cone will need to show a hard bend to the right soon if they are going with the EURO

[jlauderdal]

up up and away on the 0z euro, pretty consistent trend.....

The NHC is tossing the strong euro solution,for now.

Yeah I think so to for the time being, I would think that elongated yellow cone will need to show a hard bend to the right soon if they are going with the EURO

The weaker solution in the longer term does make sense, considering how underwhelming the GEFS has been. It gets more favorable after the islands(good for cycloneye and msbee).

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next several days. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become conducive for some development in a day or two, and a
tropical depression could form around midweek while the system is
near or over the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, or
southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[boca]

Looks like the NHC is now going with the Euro solution I’m not surprised.

[Frank P]

Looks like the NHC is now going with the Euro solution I’m not surprised.

Yep, right bend says it all

[ineedsnow]

6z GEFS are getting a little more interested in this now

[boca]

6z GEFS are getting a little more interested in this now

That’s why the cone has Florida in it for the time being is that the NHC is weighing the GEFS, otherwise the cone would be in the Atlantic just missing the SE coast like the Euro is forecasting.

[DunedinDave]

Any time the Euro ramps something up a week in advance, you take it seriously. They’re usually late to the party but good at tracking once it’s at the party.

Based on early models, this could go anywhere. Maybe a gulf storm, maybe mid-Atlantic. All chips on the table but I’m willing to wager we’re looking at tracking a strong Hurricane a week from today.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS likely far overdoing EPAC activity, that might be a reason why it's weaker with this system vs the Euro/CMC.