Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic (10/60)

[AxaltaRacing24]

I know this is still a long ways out but I think it has GOM storm written all over it. IMO

Why?

I agree. Sniffs that way to me also. Eject Erin and builds the high. Weak wave into the Caribbean or disrupted by the islands. Stay more west. Trof doesn’t dig as they typically DONT do in August. Yeah I can see it. NO to WC FL smelling that way to me. ICON is the new Euro from years past..IMO.

and yeah i don't know what has happened to the Euro, but it plays catch-up a lot now. the ICON recently reminds me of the Euro of old more than the Euro itself.

[Hurrilurker]

According to NHC's projected cone, it looks like it's at least 75% likely to pass through Hebert Box 1. No one in the SE CONUS or Caribbean should take their eye off this one.

[EgmontBeachBum]

Tonight's euro shows the escape route closing ever so slightly. Wonder if that starts the trend towards a Gulf storm?

[skillz305]

18z GFS, I don’t like it one bit …

[wzrgirl1]

18z GFS, I don’t like it one bit …

Share please

[SFLcane]

Hi guys, Not much yet but look at the spin already in the area.

I for one watching this one pretty close since this will not be another erin spinning up near 18n close to africa. No development for a few days so it could very well sneak into the caribbean eventually there could be a turn north over cuba, florida, gulf lots of outcomes but by then they all impact some landmass.

[SFLcane]

18z GFS, I don’t like it one bit …

Share please

[skillz305]

18z GFS, I don’t like it one bit …

Share please

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

GFS 18z should be the first that pops up on page

[LarryWx]

Any opinion about what an earlier than modeled TCG, should it occur, would mean regarding the chances of it recurving like the Euro, UKMET, and CMC are showing?

[SFLcane]

Any opinion about what an earlier than modeled TCG, should it occur, would mean regarding the chances of it recurving like the Euro, UKMET, and CMC are showing?

Hi larry, for now no model shows this doing much of anything for a few days and that is tad worrisome in my opinion. I think if this develops earlier it would very much find a quick exit but that is not the current NHC thinking for now.

[wzrgirl1]

18z GFS, I don’t like it one bit …

Share please

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

GFS 18z should be the first that pops up on page

Sorry I asked

[skillz305]

00z GFS starting to run

[Pelicane]

ICON shears it to death

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: weaker and delayed TCG that is already moving NE at TCG and headed to E of Bermuda: possible reason is that Erin recurves the furthest W yet at 74.8W and with it moving out much more slowly again

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 28.9N 63.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2025 168 30.5N 62.1W 1013 31

[Pelicane]

Anytime you have a mis-aligned vortex and the skirting of landmasses, you're bound to get some funky business with center relocations.

Assuming it does not go OTS, that and how it interacts with the ULL ahead of it will determine any threat to CONUS. Hard to really predict that even within a days time frame.

[Stratton23]

00z GFS trending west, back into the gulf again, looks like landfall around the florida panhandle, trending towards a weaker east coast trough and stronger ridging building in

[skillz305]

00z GFS trending west, back into the gulf again, looks like landfall around the florida panhandle, trending towards a weaker east coast trough and stronger ridging building in

Sorry to correct, but that’s thru the keys and up the west coast into Ocala and out by Jacksonville, not the panhandle.

[SFLcane]

00z GFS trending west, back into the gulf again, looks like landfall around the florida panhandle, trending towards a weaker east coast trough and stronger ridging building in

Think its to far south and tangled with the islands to feel any tug from erin tricky forecast. ridge builds back in

[caneseddy]

00z GFS trending west, back into the gulf again, looks like landfall around the florida panhandle, trending towards a weaker east coast trough and stronger ridging building in

Goes through Eastern Cuba, intensifies while approaching Florida, goes through Upper Keys and scrapes the west coast of Florida while intensifying and landfalls in Tampa Bay

[LAF92]

00z GFS trending west, back into the gulf again, looks like landfall around the florida panhandle, trending towards a weaker east coast trough and stronger ridging building in

Sorry to correct, but that’s thru the keys and up the west coast into Ocala and out by Jacksonville, not the panhandle.

Point is that the ridge is building back in on this run thus moving the storm into the Gulf. It’s going to come down to timing and placement if the storm is able to stay south of landmasses through the Caribbean