2026 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[TROPICALCYCLONEALERT]

Less activity doesn’t mean zero storms. It only takes one

This is weenie cope anytime I hear this saying on here tbh.

I’d like to think the average person browsing this forum (not necessarily the case for the general public) is prepared for a hurricane seasonal forecast or not.

Wild comment from a met

Not really? It's pretty standard. Getting a degree doesn't transform you into some sort of superhuman, nor does it have the obligations for constant professionalism in non-professional environments that you are implying. Moreover, he's right! Sure, it only takes one, but in an active season you can get a lot more than just one.

[zzzh]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2026030606/cfs-avg_z500aMean_atl_6.png
https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20260305-2010/67/webp-worker-commands-555bc69478-fhmgw-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-ror7gv_8.webp

Maybe we might see a chance for -NAO to make a return in early April, as the SSW that is currently happening has an effect on the jet stream.

I think that's more because of a response to MJO moving through the Atlantic. That SSW is likely going to contribute to NAO+ later in the spring
 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2029323694468956611

[Woofde]

There is too much importance put on ENSO in my opinion. The three most important ocean indicators that we can look at with strong lead times are AMO, ENSO and the PDO. When I did a dive on what correlates with an active hurricane season a few years ago; the most important variable by far was the AMO. This makes sense, it's how much Atlantic warmth there is. ENSO does negatively correlate with activity but as you can see it's negative effect is not as strong as the forcing that a similar strength AMO creates.

The other variable that people sleep on is the PDO. It has a modulating effect on ENSO events and is of a similar level of statistical importance as ENSO itself.

If we look at what the climate modeling for 2026 ASO SST's suggest, we'll see three things. A warm Atlantic, a strong el nino and a negative PDO. Yes the nino event is likely to suppress the Atlantic to a large extent, but the -PDO and +AMO continuation pushing the opposite way leads me to believe we will not see a below active season yet again. An average to slightly above average season seems more likely in my opinion. This is probably the best shot we have at a below average season in the last 10 years, but the reason behind this strong run of hurricane seasons is still present.

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