AccuWeather Hurricane Threat

[HURAKAN]

I may not be right but as we know is very difficult predicting right the hurricane activity for a season, but it's even harder to forecast landfalls.

[LarryWx]

What I don't understand is the possibility of a high potential of hurricane landfalls over South Carolina being in the 3 category, but for Georgia and east coast of Fl the probs drop immediately down to a 10 probability. Really strange ! How can there be such a steep differential in hurricane landfall probs between here and coastal Georgia/Florida ? The west coast of Florida shows the highest prob of hurricanes, meaning many of them would recurve from the Caribbean northward then NE into west coast of FL. Even so, wouldn't these systems then continue moving NE, impacting coastal Georgia and North FL also ?

In my opinion, JB's forecast is very plausible. Keep in mind that based on past storms' scoring, he is not just considering landfall points (as you were correctly assuming). A cat 3 hitting the west coast of FL would likely weaken to either a TS or at most a cat. 1 hurricane as it passed the NE FL and GA coasts. This would jibe quite well with his predictions. It appears to me that he is not calling for a direct hit on NE FL/GA from the open Atlantic (i.e., a storm from a SSE, SE, ESE, or E direction).

[LarryWx]

One thing I forgot to mention: I would love to see NC and SC split out into their own individual zones. The Savannah to Hatteras corridor is ~400 miles long and it covers just over 5 degrees of longitude (since the coast sticks out so much through there). That's a lot of real estate. A direct major hit in the Savannah-Charleston corridor, which often has some westerly component of direction due to that area being tucked in, is often a much different type of storm from one that inflicts a direct major hit on Hatteras, which could even involve a storm moving rapidly NNEward on its way out to sea since it sticks out so far. A very active season at Hatteras could very easily occur with an inactive season in lower SC.

Another option imo (and perhaps more viable since it wouldn't require an additional zone) would be to place the lower half of SC, including Charleston, into the GA and NE FL zone.

[Guest]

Joe B.'s forecasts interesting now!