Tropical Storm Dennis

[dhweather]

We love you too.

[Brent]

I note that the UKMET has shifted left in the long term now also. Looking like very strong consensus here.

This track is bad news. At the very least it'll be a huge rain event for Jamaica, and then those waters just south of Cuba are really warm. And crossing western Cuba won't slow him down much.

Bottom line is, this track is a recipe for a very significant storm in the Gulf.

Jan

Yes.

[Normandy]

I think it might do more to Jamaica than give just rain....

[gkrangers]

Looks like good news for me

Yes Tampa as time goes by is out of the loop.

I just hope the ridge holds. I wont be happy till it's on land somewhere. I don't want anyone to get a bad storm but I just can't handle another one. We were really lucky but it was still very stressful. Were these models run with the new data from recon or didn't they report yet?? I haven't checked. I am going to call my Mom..she was concerned. This is good news

Recon's data won't be in til the evening runs around 8pm EDT.

They ARE a high-altitude flight right and not just a normal low-level fix??

Thanks Brent. I like extrap the best!!

The xtrap model is awesome. The coders were pure geniusesses.

[jrod]

My gut still thinks it will hit Florida and likely recurve and make back into the Atlantic. My heart wants it to make it to the central gulf and sit there for a few days so I can catch the best the gulf can offer for waves. This thing looks like it has nothing to stop it from becoming a monster, a track further north over Jamaic of course would be the only inhibiting factor as far as intenisity is concerned.

[x-y-no]

I think it might do more to Jamaica than give just rain....

I agree, which is why I said "at the very least."

Jan

[Rainband]

Prayers on the way to them

[boca]

It's just not Florida's turn hopefully it will pass to the west.

[jrod]

If it makes far enough north to hit Jamaica I think the chances of it hitting Florida are much higher. If it stays south of Jamaica then we should be in the clear.

I do think there is a chance of it stalling out in the south eastern gulf. NOAA's wave model shows it pretty much stalling:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/wna.anim.gif

[cycloneye]

Advisory shortly.

[Air Force Met]

The LLC is visible on the high res GHCC loop...and it's not where the MLC is...and so I think the NHC has been placing it too far south all along (which I kinda had a feeling about...). But...if you do a high res vis you can see it moving along to the west at about 275. There is a thunderstorm located right on the eastern quad. You can see the swirl come out from the cirrus on the 1902Z shot...but the good thing is you can easily see now which way it is moving.

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Dennis Forecast/Advisory Number 4


Statement as of 21:00Z on July 05, 2005



at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Haiti has changed the
tropical storm watch for the southwest peninsula of Haiti from the
Dominican Republic border and Port-au-Prince westward to a Tropical
Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch.

Also at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of the Dominican Republic
has changed the tropical storm watch for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

Also at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Jamaica has issued a
Hurricane Watch for Jamaica.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.

Tropical storm center located near 14.2n 68.3w at 05/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 17 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1005 mb
Max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt....... 50ne 40se 0sw 50nw.
12 ft seas.. 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 14.2n 68.3w at 05/2100z
at 05/1800z center was located near 13.8n 67.6w

forecast valid 06/0600z 15.4n 70.6w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 40se 0sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 06/1800z 17.0n 73.4w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 kt... 75ne 50se 25sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 07/0600z 18.4n 75.8w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 0sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 60se 30sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 07/1800z 19.9n 78.4w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 60se 30sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 08/1800z 22.0n 82.0w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 09/1800z 24.0n 84.5w
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.

Outlook valid 10/1800z 26.5n 86.5w
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 14.2n 68.3w

next advisory at 06/0300z

forecaster Knabb

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Dennis Advisory Number 4

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 05, 2005

...Dennis organizing and moving rapidly west-northwestward...
...New watches and warnings issued...

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Haiti has changed the
tropical storm watch for the southwest peninsula of Haiti from the
Dominican Republic border and Port-au-Prince westward to a Tropical
Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch.

Also at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of the Dominican Republic
has changed the tropical storm watch for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

Also at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Jamaica has issued a
Hurricane Watch for Jamaica.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Dennis was
located near latitude 14.2 north... longitude 68.3 west or about
325 miles... 525 km... south-southwest of San Juan Puerto Rico and
about 405 miles... 650 km...southeast of Port au Prince Haiti.

Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph
...32 km/hr ...and this general motion is expected to continue
during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
Dennis is expected to produce storm total rain accumulations of 4 to
6 inches over much of Hispaniola with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches possible over mountainous terrain. These rains could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...14.2 N... 68.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Knabb

[cycloneye]

052045
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...DENNIS ORGANIZING AND MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH.

ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT
325 MILES... 525 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 405 MILES... 650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...14.2 N... 68.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

[Air Force Met]

They've placed the center way too far south again. It was at 14.93 at 1945Z...maybe they are trying to keep continuity?

[dhweather]

To me, that's looking more and more like a panhandle landfall.

[Brent]

They've placed the center way too far south again. It was at 14.93 at 1945Z...maybe they are trying to keep continuity?

I'm guessing so until recon gets a fix.

[JTD]

Tropical Storm Dennis Discussion Number 4


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 05, 2005



Dennis is steadily becoming more organized. Dvorak classifications
at 18z were t2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB...and this will be
the advisory intensity. Convection had been a bit on the spotty
side earlier today...but it has since become more consolidated near
the estimated center...so Dennis seems poised to intensify this
evening. The Caribbean Sea ahead of the storm is plenty warm...and
the vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak throughout the
forecast period. SHIPS brings the system to 92 kt...and GFDL
forecasts 76 kt...in 72 hours before the system crosses Cuba. Due
to the uncertainties with intensity forecasting...including in this
case how Dennis will interact with the larger islands of Hispaniola
and Cuba...the official forecast is little more conservative than
SHIPS and GFDL but still makes Dennis a hurricane by 36 hours.

Dennis is moving fairly rapidly...with initial motion estimated at
290/17. Model guidance is in tight agreement on this general
motion continuing for about the next three days...with the primary
steering mechanism being the subtropical ridge currently centered
over the northwestern Bahamas. Beyond that time...a weakness in the
ridge is anticipated to develop...as a mid/upper level trough
sharpens over the eastern United States. This should induce a
gradual decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest
late in the forecast period. The current forecast is along but a
little faster than the previous advisory track.
Based on the forecast...new watches and warnings be issued for the
Dominican Republic...Haiti...and Jamaica.

Forecaster Knabb


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 05/2100z 14.2n 68.3w 35 kt
12hr VT 06/0600z 15.4n 70.6w 45 kt
24hr VT 06/1800z 17.0n 73.4w 55 kt
36hr VT 07/0600z 18.4n 75.8w 65 kt
48hr VT 07/1800z 19.9n 78.4w 70 kt
72hr VT 08/1800z 22.0n 82.0w 75 kt
96hr VT 09/1800z 24.0n 84.5w 80 kt
120hr VT 10/1800z 26.5n 86.5w 80 kt

[msbee]

This thing looks as thoguh it could pass directly over Jamaica which is not a good thing for Jamaica.