Dennis Advisorys 7 AM,Cat 2 105 mph

[wxwatcher91]

They actually moved the cone a bit west. Interesting.

This may be true, but they also moved the predicted landfall just a tad to the east now.

true the position at landfall has been moved east however the thrid day position has been moved west... im guessing this is the result of that cold pool they talked about in the discussion

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

DENNIS IS WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA NOW...AND THE LAST RECON
REPORT RIGHT AT LANDFALL NEAR CIENFUEGOS INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD
RISEN 3 MILLIBARS TO 941 MB. HOWEVER...A WIND GUST TO 149 MPH WAS
MEASURED IN CIENFUEGOS CAUSING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE THERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/15. DENNIS HAS BEEN WOBBLING
ABOUT A MEAN MOTION BETWEEN 310 AND 315 DEGREES THE PAST 12 HOURS
...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT TYPE OF MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 12Z AND 18Z INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
TODAY. ALSO...UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A COLD POOL OF -10C HAS
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN LOUSIANA ALONG A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
NONE OF THE MODELS INTIALIZED VERY WELL. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD HELP CREATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAN
THE GLOBAL...GFDL...AND NAM MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO DROP SOUTH OF
LOUSIANA OVER THE NOTHWESTERN GULF. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DEEP-
LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

DENNIS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE OVER CUBA...BUT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS
EVENING AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. HOWQEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DENNIS TO RE-STRENGTHEN...
POSSIBLY TO CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...ONCE IT REACHES THE 29C SSTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 24 HOURS...DENNIS WILL BE
MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER...WHICH MAY BRING ABOUT SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING...BUT THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE U.S.
LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

ALL OF THE WIND SPEED RADII...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIGHT SEMICIRCLE...
WERE INCREASED BASED ON RECON DATA.

SOME FACTS ABOUT DENNIS...THE EARLIEST CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TO
DEVELOP IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO EARLY IN THE
YEAR.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 22.6N 81.1W 115 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
12HR VT 09/0600Z 23.9N 82.7W 105 KT...OVER S.E. GULF
24HR VT 09/1800Z 25.7N 84.4W 110 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 27.8N 85.6W 110 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 30.0N 86.7W 110 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 34.9N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 12/1800Z 38.0N 90.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 13/1800Z 39.5N 85.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND

[cycloneye]

[cinlfla]

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/15. DENNIS HAS BEEN WOBBLING
ABOUT A MEAN MOTION BETWEEN 310 AND 315 DEGREES THE PAST 12 HOURS
...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT TYPE OF MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 12Z AND 18Z INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
TODAY. ALSO...UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A COLD POOL OF -10C HAS
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN LOUSIANA ALONG A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
NONE OF THE MODELS INTIALIZED VERY WELL. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD HELP CREATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAN
THE GLOBAL...GFDL...AND NAM MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO DROP SOUTH OF
LOUSIANA OVER THE NOTHWESTERN GULF. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DEEP-
LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN GULF

Ok, can someone please explain what this means? I still don't understand a lot of the scientific terms yet. Thanks

[Mattie]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200504.strike.html

From the 5 p.m. bulletin - strike probabilities in easy to read format.

[gkrangers]

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/15. DENNIS HAS BEEN WOBBLING
ABOUT A MEAN MOTION BETWEEN 310 AND 315 DEGREES THE PAST 12 HOURS
...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT TYPE OF MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 12Z AND 18Z INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
TODAY. ALSO...UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A COLD POOL OF -10C HAS
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN LOUSIANA ALONG A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
NONE OF THE MODELS INTIALIZED VERY WELL. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD HELP CREATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAN
THE GLOBAL...GFDL...AND NAM MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO DROP SOUTH OF
LOUSIANA OVER THE NOTHWESTERN GULF. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DEEP-
LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN GULF

Ok, can someone please explain what this means? I still don't understand a lot of the scientific terms yet. Thanks

The ridge of high pressure over Florida will hold and deflect the storm toward the north central GOM coast. Its like a buffer. The upper level low to the storms west will create southeastern winds, which will also pull the storm northwestward towards the north central gulf coast.

I think.

[cinlfla]

The ridge of high pressure over Florida will hold and deflect the storm toward the north central GOM coast. Its like a buffer. The upper level low to the storms west will create southeastern winds, which will also pull the storm northwestward towards the north central gulf coast.

I think.

Ahh, ok This would explain then why the models are all coming together and it seems as if the NHC has a pretty good handle on things as well. Dennis pretty much can't go anywhere except the North Central Gulf. Thanks for explaining.

[drezee]

2100z was 22.6N 81.1W two clicks west no clicks north (aka "Another Western Wobble")

749
WTNT54 KNHC 082155
TCEAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

AT 6 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST. THIS IS
ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[gkrangers]

2100z was 22.6N 81.1W two clicks west no clicks north (aka "Another Western Wobble")

749
WTNT54 KNHC 082155
TCEAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

AT 6 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST. THIS IS
ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Last two-three frames on radar show that western wobble.

[cycloneye]

I didn't remember about the now 2 hour advisorys times.

[soonertwister]

I was under the impression that unofficial advisories were supposed to have a disclaimer at the top?

And Bevin has it wrong. the next official advisory is at 8 pm EDT, not 9.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO
OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE
RIVER.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES
... 105 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE OFF THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST
OF CUBA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...200
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AS DENNIS MOVES OVER CUBA. HOWEVER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT EMERGES OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. CIENFUEGOS CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 93 MPH. WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AT THIS
HOUR...WITH THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH AT AN
ELEVATION OF 160 FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 4
TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA.
HIGHER VALUES OF STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS. A
STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A
STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 7 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[gkrangers]

I was under the impression that unofficial advisories were supposed to have a disclaimer at the top?

And Bevin has it wrong. the next official advisory is at 8 pm EDT, not 9.

What? The Next advisory is now, at 7PM. Followed by 9PM, then a full advisory at 11PM.

That is an official advisory from Forecaster Beven at the NHC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I was under the impression that unofficial advisories were supposed to have a disclaimer at the top?

And Bevin has it wrong. the next official advisory is at 8 pm EDT, not 9.

Very true

[Brent]

I was under the impression that unofficial advisories were supposed to have a disclaimer at the top?

And Bevin has it wrong. the next official advisory is at 8 pm EDT, not 9.

Your wrong.

NHC is issuing intermediates at 7pm and 9pm due to it passing close to the Keys tomorrow morning.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EDT AND 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

[mf_dolphin]

I was under the impression that unofficial advisories were supposed to have a disclaimer at the top?

And Bevin has it wrong. the next official advisory is at 8 pm EDT, not 9.

Beven is right. They are on 2 hour intervals now.

[cycloneye]

I was under the impression that unofficial advisories were supposed to have a disclaimer at the top?

And Bevin has it wrong. the next official advisory is at 8 pm EDT, not 9.

I posted the 7 PM Advisory.The next one is at 9 PM as now there will be 2 hours between advisorys.

[cycloneye]

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST. THIS IS
ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 130
MILES...205 KM SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FORECASTER BEVEN



This is not an advisory but only a position estimate that they made.

[soonertwister]

The original reference was to wunderground.com. I can't recall 2 hour intermediate advisories before, so it was on honest mistake.

I can't keep track of all the NHC forecasters' names either, I'm just too busy to follow it so closely. People change employers all the time. But I wouldn't post an advisory posted at wunderground, anyway.

That's just my personal preference. Thanks for the correction, though.

[Brent]

The original reference was to wunderground.com. I can't recall 2 hour intermediate advisories before, so it was on honest mistake.

I can't keep track of all the NHC forecasters' names either, I'm just too busy to follow it so closely. People change employers all the time. But I wouldn't post an advisory posted at wunderground, anyway.

That's just my personal preference. Thanks for the correction, though.

They issue 2-hour advisories and position estimates when it's *usually* 12-18 hours from the U.S. and is a hurricane. Sometimes more... but that's usually how it goes. Since it'll be close to the Keys in about 12 hours, they are doing it.