Why Franklin may LOOP after all

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Steve Cosby
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#81 Postby Steve Cosby » Sun Jul 24, 2005 11:11 am

Considering Ivan, this will probably still be Franklin at that time.

Whatever flows off to the northeast is getting absorbed.
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#82 Postby beachbum_al » Sun Jul 24, 2005 11:17 am

So what is going to happen to Franklin?
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#83 Postby Zadok » Sun Jul 24, 2005 12:26 pm

Looks to me that Frank is turning back in towards CONUS.

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#84 Postby Rainband » Sun Jul 24, 2005 12:29 pm

It's moving ene.??? How is that back to the CONUS.
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#85 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Jul 24, 2005 12:59 pm

Zadok wrote:Looks to me that Frank is turning back in towards CONUS.


I'd like to see the data that supports that...rather than what it looks like. The latest visible loop shows it continuing on towards the ENE and E. Not sure what you're looking at.
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#86 Postby flashflood » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:12 pm

Possibly because the blow up of convection in the mid levels made the LLC do some kind of a cyclonic loop which it appears to be doing that now.
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#87 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:32 pm

The plunging High is compressing the surface spiral...
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#88 Postby mike18xx » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:35 pm

Sanibel wrote:The plunging High is compressing the surface spiral...
As Franklin has, IMO, occluded through the surface front, north and eastward progress of the LCC should soon cease:
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#89 Postby air360 » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:37 pm

the latest model runs of Bamm and bamd show him coming back west. I have not looked at them within the past 2 days or so..have they been showing differences with the other models alot lately or is this something new with this run?

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#90 Postby Astro_man92 » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:37 pm

What is CONUS???
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#91 Postby air360 » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:38 pm

CONUS = continental United States
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#92 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:42 pm

CONtinental US


The overland weather pattern from California to Maine...
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#93 Postby mike18xx » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:44 pm

(Mike18xx shoves big pile of chips toward "Franklin will hit the US" spot on roulette table.)
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#94 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 24, 2005 2:01 pm

It's either just gotten over the hump and will continue along on the east divide of the trough, or it is jacking up slightly after being caught by the return side of the plunging High...
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#95 Postby mvtrucking » Sun Jul 24, 2005 4:12 pm

mike18xx wrote:
Sanibel wrote:The plunging High is compressing the surface spiral...
As Franklin has, IMO, occluded through the surface front, north and eastward progress of the LCC should soon cease:
Image


Mike,
Are you saying it will stop basically,then loop back SW? Maybe along that line you have shown? Just curious....
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#96 Postby mike18xx » Sun Jul 24, 2005 6:02 pm

mvtrucking wrote:Mike, Are you saying it will stop basically,then loop back SW?.
That's what appears to be happening, despite model consensus. I've been watching a 30-frame VIS loop of Franklin, and from 18:25 to 20:40UTC, the exposed center moves briefly north, then stalls, then begins moving south toward dark. Meanwhile, the remaining convection is pushed (by shear) farther away from the center into the southern outer bands -- and the trough slides farth east northeast of Franklin.

Predictaguesstimate: Slow southward movement of Franklin's now-fully-occluded LLC will continue overnight, and trend SW on Monday. Upper-level winds will be hostile for the next two days, limiting convection. After that, conditions aloft should improve, and Franklin will intensify while moving west back toward the US.
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#97 Postby mike18xx » Sun Jul 24, 2005 6:13 pm

Southward movement is now very evident.
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#98 Postby Pebbles » Sun Jul 24, 2005 6:34 pm

You know.. I usually don't go with the BAMM... but... *adds a few of her chips along with Mikes*
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#99 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Jul 24, 2005 6:35 pm

we will see how the 0Z models say anything about this at all.

<RICKY>
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#100 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sun Jul 24, 2005 6:36 pm

will franklin go west again and head towards florida and stregthen again?????????????????????????????
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