Gert Advisories=10 AM CDT,Last Advisore written

[cycloneye]

Is the 2 PM EDT information based on RECON reports or just estimates?

Estimates.

[cycloneye]

30
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...GERT NEARING THE COAST...BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD
TO LA PESCA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES... 105 KM... SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST
IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...21.6 N... 97.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 242031
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

IN ADDITION TO THIS MORNING'S RECON MISSION...AN EARLIER TRMM
OVERPASS WAS ALSO INCONCLUSIVE ABOUT GERT HAVING A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR
35 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS DECENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...BUT THERE IS
NOW ONLY A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING
BEFORE LANDFALL.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/9. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GERT
SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...BRINGING THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY OR
THIS EVENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWS THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER
AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 21.6N 97.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 22.1N 98.2W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1800Z 22.7N 99.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 26/0600Z 23.0N 101.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[HURAKAN]

GERT, RECON'D BUT ALWAYS ESTIMATED!!!!!

[Brent]

Just as I suspected... Gert is pathetic wind-wise.

[Hurricaneman]

Not much of a storm Id say

[wxman57]

A waste of my mother's name (Gertrude).

This is the first storm of 2005 which really shouldn't have been named.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The data shown last night a large area of 35 knot winds. With a small area up to 40 knots. So its kind of hard to say if it should or should not of?

[cycloneye]

A waste of my mother's name (Gertrude).

In Spanish is Gertrudis.

[wxman57]

The data shown last night a large area of 35 knot winds. With a small area up to 40 knots. So its kind of hard to say if it should or should not of?

True, the only thing lacking was a clearly-defined LLC, though. Many waves produce 35 kt winds. I'd agree that this was WAY better organized than Grace a few years ago, which was clearly nothing more than a wave.

[gkrangers]

463
WTNT62 KNHC 242239
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
640 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION
INDICATE THAT GERT HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF MEXICO. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 1007 MB AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH.


FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...BROAD CENTER OF GERT NEARING THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE VICINITY OF
TAMPICO...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD
TO LA PESCA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF TAMPICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 70
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE
TO INVESTIGATE GERT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE
EMILY.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 97.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Thunder44]

Where's the Gert Recon thread?

[cycloneye]

Where's the Gert Recon thread?

There were no reports at thread all afternoon and I took out the sticky.

[Swimdude]

Where's the Gert Recon thread?

There were no reports at thread all afternoon and I took out the sticky.

Yeah, Gert has my award for least exciting storm of the year. At least with Bret, he was our 2nd storm, and everyone was excited because of that fact. Gert is just... Gert.

[wxman57]

Here are some Tampico obs as Gert blasted on through. North wind at 20 kts then turned east at 18 kts as the center moved ashore. Not much of a TS. Good riddance! Now I can get some rest....

MMTM| |250144|75.0F|75.0F|100% |090|018|028|29.78|999|OVC|Rain
MMTM| |250046|78.0F|77.0F|94.2%|070|015|000|29.77|999|BKN|Light Rain
MMTM| |242344|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|360|020|000|29.79|7|OVC|Rain , Haze
MMTM| |242246|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|360|014|000|29.82|999|OVC|Rain , Haze
MMTM| |242145|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|350|008|000|29.85|999|OVC|Rain , Haze
MMTM| |242049|77.0F|75.0F|94.2%|360|012|000|29.86|7|OVC|Heavy Rain
MMTM| |241948|77.0F|75.0F|94.2%|350|014|000|29.90|999|OVC|Rain , Haze
MMTM| |241851|77.0F|75.0F|94.2%|360|015|000|29.93|999|OVC|Light Rain

[Hurricanehink]

Where's the Gert Recon thread?

There were no reports at thread all afternoon and I took out the sticky.

Yeah, Gert has my award for least exciting storm of the year. At least with Bret, he was our 2nd storm, and everyone was excited because of that fact. Gert is just... Gert.

What kind of name is Gert. Gertrude would have been much better, but Gert? Sounds like someone coughing

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

For one the likely hood of one reporting station picking up the strongest winds is close to zero. It most likely had winds of 40 to 45 mph over a small area on the coast/near it. Gert was not a very powerful system but he was what he was.

[wxman57]

For one the likely hood of one reporting station picking up the strongest winds is close to zero. It most likely had winds of 40 to 45 mph over a small area on the coast/near it. Gert was not a very powerful system but he was what he was.

He is a she.

[Brent]

Where's the Gert Recon thread?

There were no reports at thread all afternoon and I took out the sticky.

Yeah, Gert has my award for least exciting storm of the year. At least with Bret, he was our 2nd storm, and everyone was excited because of that fact. Gert is just... Gert.

What kind of name is Gert. Gertrude would have been much better, but Gert? Sounds like someone coughing

The NOAA Weather Radio robot called it "Jert" with a J.

Is it a French name or something??? Seems like they always have the weird ones.