TD 10...Back Again

[SouthFloridawx]

21:32 UTC

[jrod]

again. Ive seen worse called depressions.

I totally agee that they should wait until this system establishes itself again if ever before upgrading it.

[Sanibel]

Bastardi was calling for Florida track...

[clfenwi]

Concur with the previous two posts (by jkt21787 and sma10).

It is the continuity issue (again). Tropical Depression Irene (second iteration) did have moments when she looked worse. However, since she was already rated a tropical depression, she was given benefit of the doubt and not downgraded (though she was put on notice at one point).

Since this isn't currently a TD it is going to take more than a couple of bursts of convection (in a 6 hr period) for it to be upgraded again... especially since it has an area of 20+ knot shear to cross (and won't be on the other side of it until Wednesday a or so, assuming that the shear persists as is).

[gkrangers]

Concur with the previous two posts (by jkt21787 and sma10).

It is the continuity issue (again). Tropical Depression Irene (second iteration) did have moments when she looked worse. However, since she was already rated a tropical depression, she was given benefit of the doubt and not downgraded (though she was put on notice at one point).

Since this isn't currently a TD it is going to take more than a couple of bursts of convection (in a 6 hr period) for it to be upgraded again... especially since it has an area of 20+ knot shear to cross (and won't be on the other side of it until Wednesday a or so, assuming that the shear persists as is).

Agree.

[fci]

Concur with the previous two posts (by jkt21787 and sma10).

It is the continuity issue (again). Tropical Depression Irene (second iteration) did have moments when she looked worse. However, since she was already rated a tropical depression, she was given benefit of the doubt and not downgraded (though she was put on notice at one point).

Since this isn't currently a TD it is going to take more than a couple of bursts of convection (in a 6 hr period) for it to be upgraded again... especially since it has an area of 20+ knot shear to cross (and won't be on the other side of it until Wednesday a or so, assuming that the shear persists as is).

Totally agree and IMO, it is the most judicious approach by the NHC.

[sma10]

On top of everything, I don't think NHC ran a 00Z tropical model run on 10L. I think that's a pretty good indicator of what their current thinking is.

[gkrangers]

On top of everything, I don't think NHC ran a 00Z tropical model run on 10L. I think that's a pretty good indicator of what their current thinking is.

Well it looks better now than it has recently when the models were still being run...they may have discontinued model runs because they aren't expecting regerneation, if at all, for a few more days due to the shear ahead of it.

No point to keep running them...especially when those BAM models might work their way onshore in FL after a few more runs.

[SouthFloridawx]

shear tendency

[sma10]

Looks like tomorrow is another horrible day in the life of ex-TD10

[SouthFloridawx]

LOL

[gkrangers]

Looks like tomorrow is another horrible day in the life of ex-TD10

Yeah...I wouldn't expect too much from ex TD10 tomorrow....keeping the closed circulation is the number 1 priority...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing gots a closed LLC. It would not take alot to become a tropical depression again. That shear needs to go down.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

[Jim Cantore]

Jose I can see in the Miami Lights

I do think this will reform and just maybe hit the U.S

The UKMET points that way but I tend to take it into an area between Key Largo and Daytona Beach

I'll probably change that though in a few days

If this does shoot back west though I think theres a VERY good chance florida gets it's 6th hurricane (5th direct) in just over a year

[hurricanefreak1988]

Hopefully not. Come on Atlantic, give Florida a break, will you? Like I've been saying for a while, I wouldn't mind some hurricane action here in Fayetteville. Floyd in '99 was the last time we had any. So T.D. Ten, reform, become Jose, and stop by here as a minor Category 1 hurricane (nothing too powerful, of course). Then the wait will be over.

[gkrangers]

This thing gots a closed LLC. It would not take alot to become a tropical depression again. That shear needs to go down.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

The shear is not going anywhere..atleast for the next 36-48 hours IMO.

You can see the convection being blown off to the NE right now.

I'm not particularly sold on a track right now. I do think ex TD10 will continue to the WNW and be north of the northern Antilles in a few days. At that time, ridging should continue a WNW-NW movement northeast of the Bahamas and southwest of Bermuda...the 12z globals seem to favor recurvature, with a track similar to that of Irene.

There will be a strong trough dropping into the northeast in 7 days or so. This will have to be watched closely in conjunction with the western Atlantic ridging and the track of a possibly regenerated TD10/Jose.

But, we don't even have a system right now...and its still very early in the ballgame.

[Jim Cantore]

The northeast can use some rain

Run up the east coast please(not strong but dump some rain)

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the last model plot someone posted earlier this evening shows that it will NOT be a fish like it was predicted earlier. Perhaps this is due to the weakened state of the storm, but it does not look like a fish any longer, but then again, it may not develop into anything, but it doesn't look like a fish according to the latest model plots of the wave

[gkrangers]

I think the last model plot someone posted earlier this evening shows that it will NOT be a fish like it was predicted earlier. Perhaps this is due to the weakened state of the storm, but it does not look like a fish any longer, but then again, it may not develop into anything, but it doesn't look like a fish according to the latest model plots of the wave

I kinda doubt the models have a very good handle on things this far out. Its way to early to talk about landfall...

But the models WERE run at 00z...

850
WHXX01 KWBC 160404
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050816 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050816 0000 050816 1200 050817 0000 050817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.2N 50.3W 16.3N 52.3W 17.2N 54.1W 18.0N 55.9W
BAMM 15.2N 50.3W 16.1N 52.2W 17.1N 53.9W 17.9N 55.8W
A98E 15.2N 50.3W 15.9N 51.5W 16.7N 53.0W 17.9N 54.5W
LBAR 15.2N 50.3W 16.1N 51.6W 17.3N 53.1W 18.6N 54.8W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050818 0000 050819 0000 050820 0000 050821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.9N 57.9W 20.8N 62.0W 22.4N 65.7W 23.4N 69.4W
BAMM 18.8N 57.6W 20.7N 61.5W 22.2N 65.2W 23.0N 68.9W
A98E 19.5N 56.3W 23.4N 60.3W 27.2N 64.2W 30.3N 66.1W
LBAR 20.1N 56.9W 23.6N 60.5W 26.6N 63.0W 28.0N 63.7W
SHIP 46KTS 59KTS 68KTS 73KTS
DSHP 46KTS 59KTS 68KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 50.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 49.3W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 47.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[ConvergenceZone]

true, but the weak state of the wave is allowing it to move more south. and the ridge should be building nicely over the next few days, but as I said before, it's going to be weak no matter where it goes, so it really doesn't matter.