TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WeatherEmperor]

so wait the 12Z GFS no longer shows a FL threat anymore?

<RICKY>

[storms in NC]

I wouldn't say that. We really need to wait till the reports come out.

[dwg71]

so wait the 12Z GFS no longer shows a FL threat anymore?

<RICKY>

What does it show?

[WeatherEmperor]

so wait the 12Z GFS no longer shows a FL threat anymore?

<RICKY>

What does it show?

look at the graphic on page 4 of this thread. The GFS has it off the GA/SC coast in 168 hrs.

<RICKY>

[kmanWX]

so wait the 12Z GFS no longer shows a FL threat anymore?

<RICKY>

What does it show?

look at the graphic on page 4 of this thread. The GFS has it off the GA/SC coast in 168 hrs.

<RICKY>

By looking at the GFS it looks like there are nothing but threats to FL at that timeline.

[gkrangers]

so wait the 12Z GFS no longer shows a FL threat anymore?

<RICKY>

Actually...the 12z GFS makes landfall near St. Lucie, then goes straight north up the entire coast...then it continues north skirting GA and SC....then it dissipates the cyclone.

Just to note (192 hours is still fantasy land for the GFS) at 192 hours, a large hurricane is centered over Puerto Rico.

[RU4REAL]

for goodness sakes don't tell boca chris yet,,,he may start to






only teasing boca chris

[WeatherEmperor]

oh alright. i didnt look at the entire loop of the GFS run. I only looked at the 168hr position.

<RICKY>

[cinlfla]

On this website it lloks like they have 99l as td12






http://weather.net-waves.com/td12.php[/url]

[Recurve]

I think that these are upper steering currents and our system has not built to those heights yet.It will all depend on development but I am thinking W and WNW.It can go around an ULL but not thruogh it.

Here is a chart that shows the steering layer increasing in depth with increasing intensity of a tropical system:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/other/dlm3.gif

As I understand it, I posted the layer that's looked at for a weak system. If this is wrong, experts, please correct it!

[sma10]

12Z GFS at 168 hours:



That's 99L just off the GA coast, after having moved up the FL peninsula as a weak system.

97L is out in the middle Atlantic.

And the wave just now coming off Africa is a hurricane in the windward islands.

-------

Personally, I still think 99L gets into the Gulf. The other two systems look reasonably likely to me.

Basically, the GFS shows the system "bouncing" off of SE Florida and then moving to a position that you see here at 168 hours. What I mean is that the system appears to move inland on Westerly direction, then stall and head north.

FWIW, besides developing 97L , 99L and the system you see above heading into the Islands, the long range GFS also develops the next 3 waves after that all by 9/7.

[dwg71]

Does the center appear to be in the vicinity of 22.2N 75.0W??

[jkt21787]

On this website it lloks like they have 99l as td12






http://weather.net-waves.com/td12.php[/url]

Thats interesting, though there hasn't been any decision to upgrade I'm sure, as recon hasn't even done much research on the storm yet. There won't be an upgrade unless recon finds a TD, which we won't know for a couple of more hours.

[gkrangers]

Does the center appear to be in the vicinity of 22.2N 75.0W??

Yes, there is an LLC there. Convection is developing over it right now, it doesn't seem to be moving too much.

[sponger]

Wow. So every thing is in play from mexico to east coast threat. In other words no one has a clue. I think once the center is fixed things will get alot more clear.

[vacanechaser]

Lookinf at a zoomed in loop from the NASA sat site,

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

I noticed what appears to be another low level center trying to form closer to the upper low. It is embedded with in the Bahamas stran themselves.... It is certainly noticable if you lopp the image and crank up the speed a bit... We may be seeing 2 fightning to take over.... Interesting to see what recon sees..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I think the spin within Bahamas may be mid or upper-level, while the LLC is closer to Cuba, 22.7/75.2 area. It was much easier to discern this AM before the convective blowup.

I really think this is the real deal b/c the convection this time is not part of the diurnal cycle as it has been for over a week. This is definitely a daytime organization.

Dont know about that being along the coast... You watch the cloud patteren, the lower level clouds coming in from the southeast come right into that area I am talking about.. I know the difference in low level and upper level clouds... I just think we may have 2 taking shape... And If you notice, the out flow is starting to take shape further north as well.. Plus the intial is 22.1N and 74.7W right about where I am seeing the spin in the lower levels..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[gatorcane]

for goodness sakes don't tell boca chris yet,,,he may start to

Well who is the one that called all of this to happen several days ago????

[CFL]

Why don't we just call it Ivan?

Please -- not the "I" word!

[dwg71]

Does the center appear to be in the vicinity of 22.2N 75.0W??

Yes, there is an LLC there. Convection is developing over it right now, it doesn't seem to be moving too much.

Really? I was thinking it was picking up speed and heading WNW 290 or so, right for the big island.

[x-y-no]

so wait the 12Z GFS no longer shows a FL threat anymore?

<RICKY>

Well, it never intensifies it much, but then again intensity is hardly the forte of any of the globals.

As for track, it takes it directly over SFL, stalls it there for a day, and then moves north up the peninsula and emerges somewhere north of Canaveral.

So I'd say that's still a Florida threat.