GOM is very active right now......

[Sean in New Orleans]

Nevertheless, it is an impressive straight line of thunderstorms. No rotation whatsoever, though.

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't know about anything subtropical but, we are in for some more serious rain with the looks of that convection in the GOM along the frontal boundry and with a trough moving into western gulf it looks to be more fuel.

[cajungal]

You know it is almost hurricane season when you start hearing the word, Blob! Channel 4 New Orleans had a brief discussion on it. He said it may possibly become subtropical, but not head towards us in Louisiana. But, most likely, Florida.

[jrod]

Im glad to see rain on the way and the disturbance's clouds will be all over Florida by tommorow morning which should help to limit the potential of severe storms.

The rain is on its way!!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah it should make my commute to work a really great one

[spinfan4eva]

Didnt Allison that hit texas form from a similar setup? Thunderstorm complex that moved out over the gulf and formed a low?

[jusforsean]

http://weather.cbs4.com/auto/cbs4V2/Reg ... me%20Radar


check this out it is the long time radar is that the gom thing heading right for fla> looks like one he@# of a rain storm if it moves in. Any official outlooks on that? I dont know how far long away that would be considered.

*** When the current radar opens you need to click on the thum,bnail below that says long time radar:)

[jasons2k]

Didnt Allison that hit texas form from a similar setup? Thunderstorm complex that moved out over the gulf and formed a low?

Yes, but with less shear and the easterlies had already set in.

Edit: I was thinking of Alicia. Allison formed from a wave, but it was subtropical at first.

[TampaFl]

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosaic_640x480_public/IR/isagul.gif

Just thought I'd point out that Tampa is an island in that picture... lol

[benny]

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/sat_mosaic_640x480_public/IR/isagul.gif

Just thought I'd point out that Tampa is an island in that picture... lol

It appears that a low is forming along the front... given the satellite signature shown in the loop above. Might be nasty around here tomorrow.

[TampaFl]

Nevertheless, it is an impressive straight line of thunderstorms. No rotation whatsoever, though.

FXUS62 KTBW 160041
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
841 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER AREAS THAT DESPARATELY NEED IT...

.UPDATE...COLD AIR ALOFT MADE FOR SEVERAL SEVERE TSTMS OVER THE FL
E COAST THIS AFTN. THESE STORMS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY GIVEN DIURNAL
HEATING AND BACK BUILDING THAT ALLOWED CONTINUED WARM INFLOW.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL BACKBUILDING INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL COME FROM ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
MOST OF THE GULF...WHERE W/V IMAGERY INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING. W/V ALSO SHOWS STRONG JET OVER GA...AND ANOTHER OVER
THE SW GULF. THE LATTER IS NOT BEING PICKED UP WELL BY
MODELS...AND BELIEVE LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE GULF WILL BE
STRONGER THAN THE 1012 MB FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BUOYS OVERNIGHT FOR
DEEPENING. WHATEVER SYSTEM DEVELOPS...FRONTAL BNDY IN THE VICINITY AS WELL AS
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN WILL MEAN LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. GFS IS ANALYZING ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
BEFORE 6Z...GENERALLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY AN
ADDITIONAL SLUG OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. NAM IS
MORE RESERVED...INSTEAD GOING FOR THE BULK OF THE RAIN WELL AFTER
6Z AND KEEPING TOTALS AROUND AN INCH. AT THIS POINT...WOULD NOT MIND
EITHER GIVEN HOW DRY AREA HAS BEEN...BUT WITH THE GFS SOLN WILL
HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ANY TRAINING
BANDS OF PRECIP COULD EASILY DROP 3 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN...AND
ISSUED AN SPS EARLIER THIS AFTN FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
PINELLAS TO POLK COUNTY LINE ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...WILL BUMP POPS UP 10 PCT EVERYWHERE BUT
LEVY COUNTY...THUS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH.
POPS FOR THE DAY TOMORROW LOOK GOOD AT 70 PCT FOR TAMPA BAY
SOUTH...AND WILL LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT DECIDE IF SHUD GO UP TO
CATEGORICAL. BELIEVE MIN TEMPS UP NORTH ARE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
GIVEN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND HIGHER THAN FORECAST
DEWPOINTS AT 00Z. MITIGATING FACTOR WOULD BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
WIND SHIFT LINE DROPS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE CLOUD COVER BEING
THE DOMINATE PARTY AND BUMP MINS UP A CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW
STRONG LOW PRESSURE GETS OVERNIGHT. BUOY 42001 IS HOLDING AROUND
1012 MB ATTM...BUT SOME SHIP OBS SE OF THAT BUOY ARE COMING IN 1-2
MB LOWER. FOR NOW...WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST. HOWEVER...MARINERS SHOULD TAKE CAUTION ANYWAY
BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE HIGHER AROUND THESE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOMEWHAT TRICKY FORECAST THIS EVENING IN DETERMINING NOT
ONLY EXACTLY WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MIGHT SET UP...BUT ALSO
HOW FAR NORTH ANY HYBRID OF CONVECTIVE/OVERRUNNING RAINS MIGHT SET
UP. FOR NOW...BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND SOME EARLY KTBW
SOUNDING INFORMATION (WINDS ALOFT) BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
LONG DURATION CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF KSRQ...WITH MORE OF
EMBEDDED RUMBLES FARTHER NORTH.

ANOTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS HOW SHARP THE CUTOFF OF IFR/MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS WILL BE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LEANING TOWARD THE NAM MODEL
ARGUES FOR SOME PERIOD OF MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS IN THE TAMPA
BAY AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING AND HAVE PLAYED AS SUCH.

SO...FROM KSRQ NORTH...THE GOING FORECAST HAS MAINLY VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH A 2-6 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR TUESDAY
MORNING INTO PERHAPS EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF KSRQ...MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD SET UP LATER TONIGHT AS GULF CONVECTION MOVES IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE RIGHT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A SEVERAL HOUR DURATION OF PREVAILING IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD COME RAPIDLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WHILE SOME MVFR PERIODS MAY HANG ON
SOUTH OF KSRQ TOWARD SUNSET.

FINALLY...CRANKED MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH CONVECTION
WILL MAKE FOR RATHER TURBULENT TRAVEL IN THE 10 TO 30 THOUSAND FOOT
LAYER.


&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJS
AVIATION...BSG

[SouthFloridawx]

That's a rather interesting statement coming from the nws in tampa.

[JonathanBelles]

cyclogenisis means birth of cyclone right?

[TampaFl]

cyclogenisis means birth of cyclone right?

Not necessarily. Could be any thing from baroclinic to sub tropical. Bottom line is...looks like allot of much needed rainfall for Central & South Florida.

Robert

[Damar91]

Don't be too surprised if we wake up to a depression. Albeit a weak one.

[tgenius]

This won't form into a depression... not gonna happen..shear is too strong.

[Damar91]

Your probably right, but after last year, anything is possible!

[wxman57]

cyclogenisis means birth of cyclone right?

Not necessarily. Could be any thing from baroclinic to sub tropical. Bottom line is...looks like allot of much needed rainfall for Central & South Florida.

Robert

Actually, any low, cold core or not, is a cyclone. The word cyclone does not imply tropical in nature.

[whereverwx]

Could it become a Nor'Easter?

[Opal storm]

Don't be too surprised if we wake up to a depression. Albeit a weak one.

Don't be too suprised if we DON'T wake up to a depression.