TS Aletta,Sat. Images,Comments,Models,Advisories,Etc. Thread

[P.K.]

28/1145 UTC 16.0N 101.2W T2.0/2.5 ALETTA -- East Pacific Ocean

[x-y-no]

Well it seemed to be losing convection, but there's a pretty strong flareup happening near the center now ...

[skysummit]

I believe it's officially in its "yo-yo" stage.

[CHRISTY]

yep flare up near the center!

[CHRISTY]

NHC track from Hurricane Alley 09z...

[NONAME]

That flare up could lead to some strengthing.

[Coredesat]

I don't know about that. The convection's still somewhat disorganized.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I wouldn't be suprised if this became a minimal Cat-1 Hurricane, if it keeps on stalling over these 85 degree waters it could become a 2.

[NONAME]

Ya when the Shear and Dry air lessen. Then just then it could.

[P.K.]

WTPZ41 KNHC 281428
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
800 AM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006

AN AQUA MICROWAVE PASS AT 0820Z AND A TRMM PASS AT 1111Z INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF ALETTA DRIFTED WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD
OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A NEW BURST HAS
DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 12Z WERE 45 AND 35
KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND
MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO IS CURRENTLY IMPEDING ALETTA'S PROGRESS TOWARD
THE COAST...BUT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS AND
ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA MOVES EASTWARD. THIS COULD ALLOW ALETTA TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE GFDL
TRACKER KEEPS ALETTA OFFSHORE...THE MODEL'S 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER
CLEARLY MOVES INLAND EAST OF ACAPULCO IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME. AFTER 24-48 HOURS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
RESTRENGTHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ALETTA IS STILL EXPERIENCING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT
HAS BEEN LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ALETTA REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
FORECAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A MORE FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH LOWER SHEAR SHOULD EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES SOME
STRENGTHENING THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HOWEVER...DRY AIR
JUST TO THE WEST OF ALETTA WOULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 15.5N 101.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 15.6N 101.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 15.9N 101.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 16.2N 101.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 16.5N 101.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 31/1200Z 16.5N 102.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W 55 KT

[tailgater]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... i0GTyk.jpg
Looking pretty sad right now.
Mid level circ. seems to have well to the east.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
1100 AM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006

...ALETTA MEANDERING OFFSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONAD
EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...AND FROM WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA
WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

ALETTA HAS BEEN MEANDERING WITH LITTLE OVERALL MOTION THIS
MORNING...AND AN ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH COULD RESUME
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF ALETTA
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALETTA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...15.6 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HurricaneHunter914]

Aletta looks sick.

[P.K.]

28/1745 UTC 15.7N 101.2W T2.5/2.5 ALETTA -- East Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Aletta looks sick.

28/1745 UTC 15.7N 101.2W T2.5/2.5 ALETTA -- East Pacific Ocean

I agree, but DVORAK score has improved.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Some pretty deep convection.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

tropical storm Aletta/forecast 2#/5-28-2006/1pm pst

For most of the day the system has not been moving...Or just a very slow movement to the southwest. Upper level shear has been shearing most of the convection away from the LLC to the east. But data out of cimss shows that a upper ridge with 5 to 10 knot decreases are developing mainly to the north of the cyclone. Data shows 8 to 12 knot shear over the tropical cyclone at this time. So it is becoming mroe faverable. Convection of 70 to 75 degrees c below has formed over the eastern quad or right over the LLC. The enviroment is looking like it will become more faverable over the next 24 to 36 hours. So strengthing looks pretty likely of the cyclone over the next 24 hours. It may become a hurricane by 30 to 36 hours if not inland.

Track has alot to do if the upper level anticyclone develops and how strong. The Gfdl forecasts a track away from the coast while the Nogaps ewmwf forecasts a weaking in the ridge. For a landfall around 36 hours.

Rainfall will be the main threat of this cyclone unless it strengthens.


Wind forecast
0 45 knots
5 45 knots
12 50 knots
24 60 knots
30 65 knots hurricane?
36 50 knots possible landfall

Forecaster Matthew

This is not offical...

[LAwxrgal]

You guys are hard at work tracking a tropical system already?

This is shades of last year, we got off to a bang with TS Adrian (?) I think that formed in the EPAC....

[CrazyC83]

Here is what I think for a forecast - NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST:

Current - 15.5/101.0 - 50mph - 1003mb

6 hrs - 15.8/101.3 - 50mph - 1002mb

12 hrs - 16.0/101.9 - 60mph - 998mb

24 hrs - 16.3/103.5 - 60mph - 996mb

36 hrs - 17.0/106.9 - 65mph - 995mb

48 hrs - 18.0/111.5 - 55mph - 999mb

60 hrs - 19.1/117.3 - 45mph - 1002mb

72 hrs - 20.3/123.5 - 40mph - 1004mb

96 hrs - 21.5/131.0 - 30mph - 1005mb - Dissipating

120 hrs - Dissipated

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Can't be here tomarrow because this place is closed. But I will be here tuesday.