Brief summaries of JB's thoughts

#81 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 11:39 am

Portastorm wrote:
Johnny wrote:So JB isn't concerned about that wave southeast of Florida?

Any updates from JB this morning?

Yeah, he is still monitoring that area as well as the vigorous wave in the Caribbean islands. He generally believes we're on the edge of a tropical "ramp up" from the SE Coast west through the Gulf.

Now he is including florida in the ramp up... should be interesting to see what happens.

#82 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:12 pm

LOL...so he's including pretty much the entire southern coast.

Extremeweatherguy · #83 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:40 pm

He is saying that there will be good ventilation over the SW Atlantic, eastern Gulf and NW Caribbean starting later this week. He says that all the players for development are not there yet, but that the Gulf and SE have to watch this closely in a few days.

**No word on if he still thinks the final track of a potential system will be further west than Alberto (as he had predicted a few days back).**

Extremeweatherguy · #84 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 11:23 pm

JB said tonight that things should start getting interesting this weekend and next week as we see a trough split near 90W (central Gulf). He also says that the Bermuda high will be backing, and that the tropics should either directly or indirectly get involved starting with the weather over the SE this weekend. He will have more detailed posts in the days to come, because as of now I do not really see where he thinks this will go or exactly where it will develop. Lots of question marks still remain.

#85 Postby **Steve** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:19 am

Trofs were splitting farther west over the last two years during the summer. It will be interesting to see how far west everything backs over time and how that correlates with storm tracks yet to come in the Gulf.

Steve

Audrey2Katrina · #86 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:24 am

Bermuda high will be backing,

Not trying to sound stupid here; but by "backing" does he mean moving back west, or to the east? Just curious as that would dramatically affect the direction these waves and/or subsequent cyclones could take.

A2K

Extremeweatherguy · #87 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:58 am

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
Bermuda high will be backing,

Not trying to sound stupid here; but by "backing" does he mean moving back west, or to the east? Just curious as that would dramatically affect the direction these waves and/or subsequent cyclones could take.

A2K

I don't know yet. He gave a very brief post tonight (since he is traveling) and said he would elaborate more in the coming days.

rainstorm · #88 Postby **rainstorm** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 6:00 am

he means moving west

Extremeweatherguy · #89 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 10:27 am

In this mornings post he said that development (if any) this weekend should be to the east of Florida, but then he also said by early next week there will be a trough split in the Gulf which will leave a piece of energy behind (in the Gulf), while picking up whatever is east of FL and sending it out to sea.

Basically, what I think he is trying to say is that the area east of FL is the biggest concern of the next 2-4 days, but then when the trough split occurs we will need to turn our attention further west into the Gulf.

Looks like a crazy 7-10 days are ahead.

BTW: He also says the Bermuda high will back west over the next 6-10 days.

ROCK · #90 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 7:16 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:In this mornings post he said that development (if any) this weekend should be to the east of Florida, but then he also said by early next week there will be a trough split in the Gulf which will leave a piece of energy behind (in the Gulf), while picking up whatever is east of FL and sending it out to sea.

Basically, what I think he is trying to say is that the area east of FL is the biggest concern of the next 2-4 days, but then when the trough split occurs we will need to turn our attention further west into the Gulf.

Looks like a crazy 7-10 days are ahead.

BTW: He also says the Bermuda high will back west over the next 6-10 days.

Thanks EWG for the info. Great stuff as always. I enjoy reading JB when its free..... :lol:

Johnny · #91 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:29 am

Any word today?

CHRISTY · #92 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:53 am

Johnny wrote:Any word today?

ACCUWEATHER...

The Storm near the Bahamas Could Turn Tropical
By Meteorologist Matthew Rinde

A system to the north of the Bahamas may bear watching over the next couple of days. A storm in the area will attempt to become more tropical in nature during the next couple of days. Shear continues to affect the storm's strengthening, but this should relax later Friday. At this point it will be the best chance for the storm to change to more tropical features. Either way this system is expected to move toward the coast and inland later this weekend into early next week. Tropical moisture is feeding into the overall flow of the weather pattern. This means that heavy rain is likely across much of the eastern U.S. into next week.

Extremeweatherguy · #93 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:41 am

Johnny wrote:Any word today?

yes, as Christy posted JB and accuweather think the system off of FL has a "chance" to develop, so that is issue #1. However, JB also stated that tropical trouble #2 may be developing in the Caribbean or Gulf after the Bahamas system leaves. The best chance for system #2 looks to be sometime toward the middle or later part of next week.

Basically, to me it sounds like:

June 22nd -25th = Bahamas issue is number #1.

June 27th - early July = watch the Caribbean and the Gulf.

#94 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 2:54 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Johnny wrote:Any word today?
yes, as Christy posted JB and accuweather think the system off of FL has a "chance" to develop, so that is issue #1. However, JB also stated that tropical trouble #2 may be developing in the Caribbean or Gulf after the Bahamas system leaves. The best chance for system #2 looks to be sometime toward the middle or later part of next week.

Basically, to me it sounds like:

June 22nd -25th = Bahamas issue is number #1.

June 27th - early July = watch the Caribbean and the Gulf.

Thanks Extreme for posting his comments, they will be very useful all year

#95 Postby **mvtrucking** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:00 pm

.[/quote]Ivanhater wrote

Thanks Extreme for posting his comments, they will be very useful all year[/quote]

+1

Extremeweatherguy · #96 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 6:29 pm

Here are his latest ideas for the tropics in a very long post tonight:

-He thinks there will be a Gulf problem (west of 90W) when a trough split meets up with the African wave train in that area in about a week. He says he is "concerned" about this one. Whether or not it becomes a big ticket tropical item, however, depends on where the system tries to set up. He says that we should wait to see what players are on the field come the middle part of next week and beyond.

-He thinks that once the disturbance near the Bahamas can form a single center, that the system will be able to potentially develop. He thinks this may lead to a huge rain problem for many in the SE. He does not seem as concerned about a big event (in terms of wind/surge, etc.) with this one.

Basically, it looks like he is a bit more concerned about what may be coming for the Gulf, but is also worried about the system east of Florida. States that need to start paying attention in about a week include Texas and Louisiana (for Gulf development), and in the short term Florida through the Carolinas needs to monitor what is going on in the Bahamas. A busy tropical period looks to be ahead!

BTW: Your welcome mvtrucking and Ivanhater. :wink:

Extremeweatherguy · #97 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 4:24 pm

Part of the Houston AFD:

THE GFS PROGS MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND ADVECTING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX
COAST FRIDAY.

I wonder if this "moisture" will end up being the system JB is thinking may develop toward the end of next week?

Aquawind · #98 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 4:27 pm

Hmmm I am wondering...

Done.. :sleeping:

Opal storm · #99 Postby **Opal storm** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 4:39 pm

It seems as if JB has been hinting at some western Gulf development ever since the season started,maybe this time it will finally happen.

Extremeweatherguy · #100 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 24, 2006 12:39 pm

JB still mentioning the western Gulf in his zone forecast this morning. Seems like the middle to later part of next week into next weekend or the early part of the following week (June 27/28th - early July) is still the time to watch.

BTW, here is the latest 72 hour outlook from the NHC:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

I bet this trough in the Gulf next Tuesday is the one that JB is exited about. If this is the one, then his idea is for it to split and send a piece of energy back past 90W where it may develop. Still a watching and waiting game, but for the next few days, 91L and 92L will be more important.

JB said he will have a longer tropical post later

Brief summaries of JB's thoughts

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