92L invest MidAtlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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HURAKAN
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#81 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 24, 2006 7:38 pm

24/2345 UTC 34.4N 51.1W ST1.5/1.5 92L

If 91L & 92L have something in common is the need of convection!!!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#82 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 24, 2006 7:42 pm

It went up to 1.5st? It has no convection almost. If that convection forms it will easly have a 2.0. Come on baby!!!
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#83 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 24, 2006 7:43 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It went up to 1.5st? It has no convection almost. If that convection forms it will easly have a 2.0. Come on baby!!!


Agree 100%.
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#84 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 24, 2006 7:46 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922006) ON 20060625 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060625 0000 060625 1200 060626 0000 060626 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.1N 51.0W 34.2N 52.6W 34.1N 54.1W 33.5N 55.9W
BAMM 34.1N 51.0W 34.5N 52.8W 34.7N 54.6W 34.5N 56.4W
A98E 34.1N 51.0W 34.2N 52.7W 33.7N 54.4W 32.2N 55.5W
LBAR 34.1N 51.0W 34.5N 52.6W 35.1N 54.0W 35.6N 55.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060627 0000 060628 0000 060629 0000 060630 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.7N 57.9W 30.8N 62.5W 29.7N 66.1W 30.5N 67.2W
BAMM 34.2N 58.5W 33.3N 63.8W 33.1N 68.5W 33.5N 71.0W
A98E 30.3N 56.4W 25.3N 58.8W 23.4N 59.5W 24.9N 57.3W
LBAR 35.6N 57.0W 34.5N 60.8W 32.8N 64.7W 32.6N 65.8W
SHIP 34KTS 34KTS 36KTS 38KTS
DSHP 34KTS 34KTS 36KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.1N LONCUR = 51.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 34.0N LONM12 = 49.0W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 33.1N LONM24 = 47.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1019MB OUTPRS = 1025MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z Rum of the Tropical Models.Moving 275 westward at 7 kts.
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#85 Postby NONAME » Sat Jun 24, 2006 7:51 pm

This right now has more of chance of becoming a TS than the Bahamas sytem it has a very definded Circulation.
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#86 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 24, 2006 7:57 pm

Image

Interesting tracks. If it moves over warmer waters convection should respond to a higher concentracion of moisture.
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#87 Postby Opal storm » Sat Jun 24, 2006 8:02 pm

Models bring it pretty far west,could be a threat to the east coast if it develops.
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#88 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jun 24, 2006 8:28 pm

The yellow coded model has it dropping like a dead fly.WTF? :roll:
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#89 Postby Coredesat » Sat Jun 24, 2006 9:11 pm

That's the A98E, a climo model. Ignore it.
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#90 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 24, 2006 9:15 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 775
MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA
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#91 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 24, 2006 9:31 pm

Yeah I knew it this thing is not very likely to develop. To bad. :cry:
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#92 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 24, 2006 10:05 pm

Got some good news from the nrl satellite showing deep convection coming back. Come on beryl come on! I hope it becomes a hurricane.
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#93 Postby stormtruth » Sat Jun 24, 2006 10:07 pm

Matt you contradicting yourself tonight? Or do you think it is coming back?
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#94 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 24, 2006 10:10 pm

Some times when the convection go away 2 out of every 3 times these systems don't come back. But deep convection seems to be forming over the eastern half of this system...In trying to wrap. If we can get Beryl then we will skip ahead of 2005.
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#95 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sat Jun 24, 2006 10:10 pm

Its a race to see which one will make first 91L or 92L! I think that once 91L gets in the GoM its got a real chance to develop since it will be getting into a much better inviroment. on the other hand 92L is also getting into a better area and has a shot. then you have the area near PR that should start developing over the day tomorrow and now you also have the wave around 40 west that is breaking away from the ITCZ and has a well defined circulation to it so it one giant race to see who gets named first!
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#96 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Jun 24, 2006 10:11 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Got some good news from the nrl satellite showing deep convection coming back. Come on beryl come on! I hope it becomes a hurricane.


you maybe right...starting to look good
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-rgb.html
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#97 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Jun 24, 2006 10:11 pm

this reminds me of the race of bonnie vs. charley
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#98 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 24, 2006 11:09 pm

Image

Stronger convection trying to develop in the eastern side of the low pressure.
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#99 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Jun 24, 2006 11:13 pm

The floater is over it now.
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#100 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jun 24, 2006 11:18 pm

AnnularCane wrote:The floater is over it now.


really? I guess the NHC thinks we should watch it :eek:
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