HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Wow a 10 mb drop in 2 seconds.
Better than Wilma
94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1
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Air Force Met
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Thunder44 wrote:They have 1007mb pressure listed for 94L here:
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
But I don't believe it.
Well...if it was 1007 mb...that would be a 10mb pressure gradient over a distance of a hundred miles or so. That would be one HECK of a pressure gradient...and 42055 would NOT have 10 knot winds....that's for sure.
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HurricaneHunter914
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The NHC should Floater this by now.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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The Hurricaner
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wxman57
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Here's the mean 700-400mb flow (mid level) forecast for 12Z tomorrow. Looks like WNW-NW into Mexico within 24 hours:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/94La.gif
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/94La.gif
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HurricaneHunter914
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Just like Bret.
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Extremeweatherguy
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Portastorm
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OK ... but aren't you suggesting the mean flow will push this area of disturbed weather inland?
Am I to understand that Bret in 99 moved north when all the weather parameters suggested it should have moved inland into Mexico?
(not trying to be difficult, AFM, just trying to understand the takeaway here).
Am I to understand that Bret in 99 moved north when all the weather parameters suggested it should have moved inland into Mexico?
(not trying to be difficult, AFM, just trying to understand the takeaway here).
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Extremeweatherguy
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I still have a feeling that JB will be right on this one. I think it will turn north like he said. He seems to have made good calls this season and there is no reason to think this current call will be wrong. Then again, he said he will make an official prediction tomorrow... so may be he will change his thinking by then.
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Portastorm
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OK, I'm still struggling with this comparison to Bret. Here is the "synoptic history" about Hurricane Bret in 1999. This is from the National Hurricane Center:
a. Synoptic History
Bret formed as a tropical depression over the Bay of Campeche on 18 August. Both a tropical wave and an upper-level low contributed to the formation of Bret. A tropical wave moved from Africa to the tropical Atlantic Ocean on 5 August. Continuity and soundings from Merida, Mexico place this weak tropical wave in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula on the 18th. The second feature, an upper-level cyclonic circulation, appeared on water vapor imagery over the north central Caribbean moving westward on 15 August. The circulation initiated a thunderstorm complex on the night of the 17th over the Yucatan Peninsula and a weak surface low formed in the same location early on the 18th..
Later on the 18th, the surface low moved over the Bay of Campeche. Early morning visible satellite imagery showed a low level cloud circulation center and, a few hours later, a U.S. Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance mission confirmed the existence of a closed circulation. With some deep convection and banding present, the system was upgraded to a tropical depression at 1800 UTC on the 18th over the Bay of Campeche. The best track begins at this time, as shown in Table 1, which is a listing of Bret's best track positions, wind speeds, and central pressures, every six hours. Figure 1 shows a map of this track.
The depression did not strengthen right away due to vertical shear caused by an upper-level trough over the extreme western Gulf of Mexico. But the trough moved away and Bret reached tropical storm strength late on the 19th while beginning to move slowly northward. The vertical shear decreased. Bret rapidly became more organized and then steadily strengthened to a 125-knot category four hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale on the morning of the 22nd, while appproaching south Texas coast near Brownsville. Responding to the presence of a weak mid-tropospheric ridge over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and to a mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation over the Rio Grande valley, Bret turned northwestward and slowed its forward speed down to about 5 knots. The forward speed had earlier been as high as 9 knots.
Bret's center crossed the Texas coast over the central portion of Padre Island, midway between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, at 0000 UTC, 23 August. It had weakened to a category three hurricane with 100 knot winds and a pressure of 951mb by the time of landfall. After moving inland, Bret's movement became more westward with a slow forward speed. Bret continued to weaken as it moved across south Texas and into the high terrain of north central Mexico where it dissipated on the 25th
a. Synoptic History
Bret formed as a tropical depression over the Bay of Campeche on 18 August. Both a tropical wave and an upper-level low contributed to the formation of Bret. A tropical wave moved from Africa to the tropical Atlantic Ocean on 5 August. Continuity and soundings from Merida, Mexico place this weak tropical wave in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula on the 18th. The second feature, an upper-level cyclonic circulation, appeared on water vapor imagery over the north central Caribbean moving westward on 15 August. The circulation initiated a thunderstorm complex on the night of the 17th over the Yucatan Peninsula and a weak surface low formed in the same location early on the 18th..
Later on the 18th, the surface low moved over the Bay of Campeche. Early morning visible satellite imagery showed a low level cloud circulation center and, a few hours later, a U.S. Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance mission confirmed the existence of a closed circulation. With some deep convection and banding present, the system was upgraded to a tropical depression at 1800 UTC on the 18th over the Bay of Campeche. The best track begins at this time, as shown in Table 1, which is a listing of Bret's best track positions, wind speeds, and central pressures, every six hours. Figure 1 shows a map of this track.
The depression did not strengthen right away due to vertical shear caused by an upper-level trough over the extreme western Gulf of Mexico. But the trough moved away and Bret reached tropical storm strength late on the 19th while beginning to move slowly northward. The vertical shear decreased. Bret rapidly became more organized and then steadily strengthened to a 125-knot category four hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale on the morning of the 22nd, while appproaching south Texas coast near Brownsville. Responding to the presence of a weak mid-tropospheric ridge over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and to a mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation over the Rio Grande valley, Bret turned northwestward and slowed its forward speed down to about 5 knots. The forward speed had earlier been as high as 9 knots.
Bret's center crossed the Texas coast over the central portion of Padre Island, midway between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, at 0000 UTC, 23 August. It had weakened to a category three hurricane with 100 knot winds and a pressure of 951mb by the time of landfall. After moving inland, Bret's movement became more westward with a slow forward speed. Bret continued to weaken as it moved across south Texas and into the high terrain of north central Mexico where it dissipated on the 25th
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HouTXmetro
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Well the NOAA satellite frontal overlay now depicts the Wave well into the BOC. Earlier the northen end of the wave was barely offshore and mostly inland.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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Extremeweatherguy
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Also (I forgot to mention), JB said that if this area is not the main "system", that it could lead to new development over the Gulf in coming days. So basically, even if this does not become a TD or TS, that does not mean that something else will not over the weekend.
Latest models showing lots od moisture in western Gulf over the next few days:
18Z GFS 72 hours = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
18Z NAM 72 hours = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
Latest models showing lots od moisture in western Gulf over the next few days:
18Z GFS 72 hours = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
18Z NAM 72 hours = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
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I had not been following it until today, but from looking at the visible, IR, and WV loops now, I can say that it looks way too healthy, it already has a large, stable, symmetrical convection complex >200 miles in diameter that is 85% over the open water and which appears to be rotating. It very well could develop very fast. The water is hot, it is not being sheared much, and it is predicted to drift north slowly, at about 8 mph based on the most recent NGM/ETA output to just east of Brownsville on Saturday evening. http://weather.unisys.com/ngm/4panel/ng ... panel.html
Everyone on the Mexico/Texas/Louisiana coasts should pay attention to this storm, in my honest opinion.
Everyone on the Mexico/Texas/Louisiana coasts should pay attention to this storm, in my honest opinion.
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Opal storm
The pro mets on this board have also done a great job this season,I think I'll side with them about this going NW into MX.Extremeweatherguy wrote:I still have a feeling that JB will be right on this one. I think it will turn north like he said. He seems to have made good calls this season and there is no reason to think this current call will be wrong. Then again, he said he will make an official prediction tomorrow... so may be he will change his thinking by then.
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