94L Invest Comments Thread #2

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 302119
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
DISORGANIZED. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED MIDWAY BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
AREA SHOWS SOME ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER SURFACE
PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[vbhoutex]

GHCC?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Set to animate...at 100%...zoom factor high...as many frames as you want...15 or 20...even 30. Then click on the area in question.

This is always my primary for Sat Pics. It is definitely better than the java stuff. Many times I have used it and been able to pick out the LLC on it when it wasn't discernible on other sat loops. Having the WV, IR and Visibles all together is nice also. In fact this is what I went to just a while ago to CMA when I made my last post.

And I can still tell ya there needs to be majic in those shear maps that are depicting it lessening. I haven't seen anything indicating it has yet and the worst of it is still N or 94L.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well it is starting to look a little weak right now and the NHC is not biting, so I guess I will give it a break for a few hours to see if anything changes. My worst fear is that we go to bed tonight with a "nothing" system and wake up to a full-fledged LLC or TD rapidly heading toward TX. Let's hope this just ends up being a rainmaker when it is all said and done and not a significant system.

[bigmoney755]

how many months will it take for the shear to go away enough for hurricanes to form

[CHRISTY]

I say no development with 94L.

[fasterdisaster]

I dont think 94L will develop either, but I do think the one east of the Bahamas will become Beryl.

[Cyclenall]

how many months will it take for the shear to go away enough for hurricanes to form

The shear can change in days. I say hurricanes can form with 10 knots of shear or lower. TS can form with 25 Knots of shear or lower. TD can form with 30 Knots of shear or lower if lucky.


THE ABOVE INFORMATION IS NOT OFFICIAL, AND IS JUST MY OPINION ON THIS. DO NOT GO BY THIS INFORMATION. I MAY EVEN BE WRONG. PLEASE GO BY THE NHC OR NWS FOR INFORMATION

[CHRISTY]

I dont think 94L will develop either, but I do think the one east of the Bahamas will become Beryl.

nope!shear is still to high!i hate to say this but iam not expecting development from none of the 2 systems.

[bigmoney755]

how many months will it take for the shear to go away enough for hurricanes to form

The shear can change in days. I say hurricanes can form with 10 knots of shear or lower. TS can form with 25 Knots of shear or lower. TD can form with 30 Knots of shear or lower if lucky.


THE ABOVE INFORMATION IS NOT OFFICIAL, AND IS JUST MY OPINION ON THIS. DO NOT GO BY THIS INFORMATION. I MAY EVEN BE WRONG. PLEASE GO BY THE NHC OR NWS FOR INFORMATION

It's a shame that people have to put a disclaimer after every word they speak. You dont have to worry im not going to sue you. I heard Jeff Masters from Wunderground on the tropical roundtable saying he expected significant shear until at least through July. I wasn't sure if it took months for shear to relax or what. Last year I dont remember shear being a problem at all.

[Starburst]

GHCC?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Set to animate...at 100%...zoom factor high...as many frames as you want...15 or 20...even 30. Then click on the area in question.

Thanks AFM for the link it is sooooo much better

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like a lot of convection has fired over the entire western Caribbean. I wouldn't be surprised if an entirely new area spins up. I still think there is a 50/50 shot of development in this area through next Tuesday.

UPDATE: looks like this new area may already be starting to the NE of the last main area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

since I can not really paraphrase this, here is a short quote from JB's 6:30pm update:

The gulf system is a big rainmaker in south Texas and can ramp up quickly as it comes north northwest should a low level circulation get developed, which without recon or some ship that wanders through, wont be seen until it is obvious.

Looks like if anything does get going it may be hard to see it until it is too late.

[Opal storm]

since I can not really paraphrase this, here is a short quote from JB's 6:30pm update:

The gulf system is a big rainmaker in south Texas and can ramp up quickly as it comes north northwest should a low level circulation get developed, which without recon or some ship that wanders through, wont be seen until it is obvious.

Looks like if anything does get going it may be hard to see it until it is too late.

With the enviroment it's in development should be very slow to occur.

[bigmoney755]

I was looking at the site below. Can someone tell me what the difference between the SHIP and DSHP is? I heard someone say that DSHP accounts for when the disturbance makes land. Also does anyone know what time the two models come out?
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

[WindRunner]

I was looking at the site below. Can someone tell me what the difference between the SHIP and DSHP is? I heard someone say that DSHP accounts for when the disturbance makes land. Also does anyone know what time the two models come out?
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

That's correct, as SHIPS does not account for land interaction. Those models come out with the other general suite of models that are run every 6 hours (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z).

The next set should run around 8pm (00Z), and we should have them by 9pm EDT.

[bigmoney755]

thanks

[Air Force Met]

Well...now that the convection has died off some...the mid-level clouds left over in the southern BOC are clearly visible and show absolutely no signs of turning. Therefore all the spin is above 700mb...nothing even close to the sfc. You can see some low level cloud elements streaming WSW off the NW Yuck and in the southern BOC (under the cirrus). The north wind at the buoy looks to be an outflow boundry from the convective complex to the north....I can see a piece of the boundry moving through the cirrus as it heads SSW.

[Yankeegirl]

OK, but still if it doesnt develop, Texas is still going to get alot of rain, right? and that rain is going to make it into the Houston area, right?

[Air Force Met]

OK, but still if it doesnt develop, Texas is still going to get alot of rain, right? and that rain is going to make it into the Houston area, right?

Yep...rain rain rain rain rain. More rain west of us then here...but still rain rain rain.

[Portastorm]

OK, but still if it doesnt develop, Texas is still going to get alot of rain, right? and that rain is going to make it into the Houston area, right?

Yep...rain rain rain rain rain. More rain west of us then here...but still rain rain rain.

AFM ... is that a forecast for some rain in Austin this weekend