NW Carribean

[Dean4Storms]

This convective blow-up off the north coast of Honduras is looking suspicious too me. If it maintains overnight we may have a TD by tomorrow AM!!!

[Ivanhater]

This convective blow-up off the north coast of Honduras is looking suspicious too me. If it maintains overnight we may have a TD by tomorrow AM!!!

Normally I would not pay much attention to these types of systems, but boy this one has been VERY persistent.

[cycloneye]

This convective blow-up off the north coast of Honduras is looking suspicious too me. If it maintains overnight we may have a TD by tomorrow AM!!!

2 Things have to occur before we can say it will be a TD.First it has to persist for 24-36 hours meaning the convection and second it has to separate from land as right now land interaction is in place.

[SouthFloridawx]

[mvtrucking]

We will definitely feel the effect's of the cold front tonight, maybe 62 tonight for a low? Nice...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree south Floridawx. But theres almost no chance for this to become a td intill it makes it into the gulf.

[Dean4Storms]

This convective blow-up off the north coast of Honduras is looking suspicious too me. If it maintains overnight we may have a TD by tomorrow AM!!!

2 Things have to occur before we can say it will be a TD.First it has to persist for 24-36 hours meaning the convection and second it has to separate from land as right now land interaction is in place.

Yea and no, we have seen TD's blow up alot faster than that with less deep convection and very close to land. Although what you state is a general rule, it is not without exceptions Luis.

Taking a look at IR imagery I see counterclockwise rotating convective cloud tops over the deepest convection and clockwise outflows at UL's especially on the north and eastern side of this deep convection. Like I said, if it maintians this overnite it could very well develop a closed low at the surface by 12:00 noon tomorrow, not saying it will, just that if it maintains this current deepening convection it could.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The ssts and oceanic heat content are high, and this area of convection
has been somewhat persistent since earlier today....development is
possible.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html

200mb analysis from the tafb indicates only 10kt shear over the gulf right now.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

I would watch to see if convection from the caribbean persists and a surface trough does develope in the southeastern gulf.

With Building High moving west from bermuda would create a more favorable environment and the trough scooting out to the northeast... stearing currents will be very weak.
If you look at the sat pics we may be seeing this starting to unfold.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html


Weak stearing currents will be left over in the gulf as the trough moves out.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

19.8 north/85.5 appears to be a MLC....Which is moving westward or west-northwestward. The area of convection has formed over a surface trough at 83.5 west. With maybe a weak MLC just aout 15.5/83. Which would place it right on the coast.

Good job SouthFloridawx!

[djones65]

Before a TD can form we need to have a low level circulation. This complex is a result of upper level diffluence southeast of an upper trough and surface convergence over the western Caribbean. As the strong/gale force trade winds over the central and western Caribbean reach central america there is convergence along the Honduras and Nicaragua coast. There is no low level circulation so therefore, no chance for a tropical cyclone to form in the near future.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also with the MLC at 19.8/85.5 appears that convection is trying to form just to the east/northeast of it.

[Nimbus]

The southern extent of the tropical wave south of Cuba was flaring yesterday. At that time an ULL was enhancing the convection. Convection seems persistant and the front appears too far north to pick this area up.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Before a TD can form we need to have a low level circulation. This complex is a result of upper level diffluence southeast of an upper trough and surface convergence over the western Caribbean. As the strong/gale force trade winds over the central and western Caribbean reach central america there is convergence along the Honduras and Nicaragua coast. There is no low level circulation so therefore, no chance for a tropical cyclone to form in the near future.

I agree...Maybe a weak MLC at 19.8/85.5 west with the tropical wave its self. But most of this is as you say air rising up/converging. Which can also be called a surface trough.

[drezee]

don't get alarmed, but when the storms collapse there will be a mid-level that shows up...please don't go crazy about it...

[SouthFloridawx]

Please of low level convergence over the se gom.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

More than enough upper level divergence in the caribbean
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is perfectly normal when the convection falls apart for a mid level to form. Or at least look like theres one.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

What most tropical waves need for possible development is persistence..... and this system has persisted and stayed strong for a long time. I think that we might actually get a Tropical Cyclone from this system and we actually have something to watch.

[bigmoney755]

TWO says no development is expected.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Shear has lessened...oceanic heat content and SSTs are high, conditions
are becoming more favorable for development as explained by SouthFloridawx
in a post above.
Convection as of 10:40 PM EST looks intense over the Central America
Coastline and the NW Caribbean.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF