Tropical Depression Emilia (06E) in EPAC=Last Advisory

[Brent]

That's really cold water.

LOL! For real... poor Emilia.

[AnnularCane]

That's really cold water.

LOL! For real... poor Emilia.

She'll be a 'canesicle!

[Cyclenall]

Link: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java6.html

Check out the end of the loop. Set your eyes on the center.

[AnnularCane]

Wow, she looks so pretty. And just yesterday I thought she was dying.

[whereverwx]

I wish they would reposition the floater... they haven't done so since the 21st.

[cycloneye]

119
WTPZ41 KNHC 232026
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND IMPROVE. T-NUMBERS
FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT...AND A 3-HR
AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS T3.7/59 KT. GIVEN THE BANDING EYE
FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPEARING IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/07 KT. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY...WHICH IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY TREND AND PROBABLY DUE
TO THE INNER CORE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AND EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SHOULD
FORCE EMILIA ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS
HAVING MADE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT INTO THE MAIN MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND AN EYE MAY BECOME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS IF THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND
CONTINUES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND
BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...EMILIA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS OF 28-29C AND IN A LOW OR NO SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION ENSUE SHORTLY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BETWEEN THE 12H TO 24 H FORECAST
PERIODS. BY 48 HOURS...EMILIA IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY OR RAPID WEAKENING TREND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 18.4N 107.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.0N 109.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W 85 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 20.4N 112.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.1N 113.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 22.6N 116.1W 40 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 27/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1800Z 26.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

If Emilia was in the GOM, the ENTIRE Gulf Coast including Florida's West Coast would have seen some major rain totals because she is huge!

[Grease Monkey]

Get this thing to move it's butt, so we can get chris to form in the BOC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree. The nhc is forecasting 85 knots wonder if it can push 100 knots?

[Cyclenall]

Here is a question I have:



Is tropical storm Emilia really that large?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA (EP062006) ON 20060724 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060724 0000 060724 1200 060725 0000 060725 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 108.4W 18.5N 109.7W 19.2N 110.8W 20.0N 112.0W
BAMM 18.1N 108.4W 18.6N 109.7W 19.2N 111.0W 19.6N 112.2W
LBAR 18.1N 108.4W 18.5N 109.8W 19.5N 111.5W 20.8N 113.6W
SHIP 60KTS 70KTS 77KTS 79KTS
DSHP 60KTS 70KTS 77KTS 79KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060726 0000 060727 0000 060728 0000 060729 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.1N 113.3W 23.7N 115.8W 25.5N 118.3W 25.7N 120.7W
BAMM 20.5N 113.2W 23.1N 115.2W 25.1N 117.2W 25.7N 118.6W
LBAR 22.2N 115.9W 25.6N 119.8W 28.4N 122.7W 29.5N 123.8W
SHIP 75KTS 57KTS 37KTS 21KTS
DSHP 75KTS 57KTS 37KTS 21KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.1N LONCUR = 108.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 107.0W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 105.3W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 80NM

$$


Still a Tropical Storm but it's a matter of time that Emilia will be a hurricane.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

Emilia is looking like Typhoon Tip's Sister! She's HUGE!

[cycloneye]

961
WTPZ41 KNHC 240253
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006

EARLIER THIS EVENING...VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SUGGESTED THAT EMILIA WAS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE DIURNAL
MINIMUM...WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND
OVER THE OUTER BANDING FEATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A MORE IMPRESSIVE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN WITH COLDER TOPS OF -70C AND AND A STRONG
BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55
KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...WITH A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 61 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
FOREGOING AND THE RECENT BANDING DEVELOPMENT. DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION REVEALS
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANTS. AFTER 36 HOURS OR SO...EMILIA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS AND THROUGH A NOT SO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/7...JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH A SHORT-TERM MOTION MORE LIKE DUE
WEST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE STRETCHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND
THE BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE DURING
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO TWO
CLUSTERS. ONE CLUSTER...WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS/GFDL/ECMWF/GFDN...
SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OTHER GROUPING...CONSISTING OF THE
UKMET/NOGAPS/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND...ODDLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE...
INDICATES A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 18.2N 108.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 18.6N 109.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 19.4N 111.3W 85 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 20.4N 112.7W 85 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 21.4N 114.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 23.5N 117.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 25.0N 119.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[wxmann_91]

Since this is a pretty large cyclone I do not expect intensification as rapid as the NHC is indicating.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Satellite shows a very broad and disorganize cyclone. The convection is mostly in banding around the broad center. 85h data shows no eye just banding...Really not even a central core. I would say that this is around 40 knots.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the latest data of Emilia she is starting to organize some. With some banding starting to pull into the center. But still very little central core. Overall she is most likely has a wind of about 50 knots. If this trend keeps up she will start developing a central core.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 240829
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
200 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2006

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE ORGANIZATION OF EMILIA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KT BASED ON
CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.
EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS MAY ALREADY BE TAKING PLACE. ACCORDINGLY...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGTHENING SHUTS AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
THESE TWO NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING WITH
EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND DISSIPATE
BY 120 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING WEAKER BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY
BASED ON THE INCREASING OUTFLOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/8. THE
STEERING IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT EMILIA WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE. AN ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION IS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL AND CANADIAN
MODELS WHICH SHOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION DUE TO A STRONGER
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTHEAST OF EMILIA. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE MODELS
FAIL TO SHOW THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SO IT IS ASSUMED
THAT THE LATTER RIDGE IS ALREADY TOO STRONG WITHIN THESE MODELS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE AND IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 18.4N 109.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 18.8N 110.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 19.8N 112.3W 80 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 21.8N 115.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 23.8N 118.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 25.5N 121.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA (EP062006) ON 20060724 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060724 1200 060725 0000 060725 1200 060726 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 109.7W 19.3N 111.3W 20.3N 113.3W 21.5N 115.4W
BAMM 18.5N 109.7W 19.3N 111.5W 20.0N 113.5W 20.8N 115.5W
LBAR 18.5N 109.7W 18.9N 111.4W 20.2N 113.3W 21.8N 115.8W
SHIP 55KTS 57KTS 58KTS 57KTS
DSHP 55KTS 57KTS 58KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060726 1200 060727 1200 060728 1200 060729 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.6N 117.7W 24.3N 122.3W 24.8N 126.1W 24.7N 128.2W
BAMM 21.7N 117.4W 23.3N 121.2W 24.1N 124.5W 24.7N 126.1W
LBAR 23.6N 118.4W 27.1N 122.9W 30.6N 124.8W 33.8N 122.5W
SHIP 52KTS 36KTS 20KTS 0KTS
DSHP 52KTS 36KTS 20KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 109.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 108.4W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 107.0W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 60NM



Ships had it as a hurricane in the past runs but in this 12:00z run they do not go that far.Intensity has been reduced from 60kts to 55 kts.

[cycloneye]

321
WTPZ41 KNHC 241435
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
800 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2006

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT EMILIA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.
IN FACT...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO T 3.0...45
KT...FROM SAB AND TAFB...WHILE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN
55 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES BECAUSE OF DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUSLY ADVISORY...AS
EMILIA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED SOON TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

EMILIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES STRENGTHENING...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EMILIA TO BECOME A
HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO AND INDICATES THAT EMILIA WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS
MODEL FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...BUT IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS
DURING THE WEAKENING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 18.7N 110.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 19.2N 111.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 20.1N 112.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 21.3N 114.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 22.4N 116.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 25.0N 122.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

[Cyclenall]

Is there no reason for this weakening? I had a feeling they would lower it since it is disorganized and not getting any better.