99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #81 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:00 pm

NYCHurr06 wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:I have a question.. what is an invest exactly? I never heard of them until now.

An invest is an investigation area...it is lower than a depression and is just an area to keep an eye on for a possible depression to form.

Oh okay. Thanks. I thought so.

Who decides when to do an invest?

HurricaneMaster_PR · #82 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:01 pm

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060728 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060728 0000 060728 1200 060729 0000 060729 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.8N 31.5W 9.3N 35.3W 9.7N 38.6W 9.9N 41.6W
BAMM 8.8N 31.5W 9.4N 34.9W 10.0N 37.8W 10.4N 40.5W
A98E 8.8N 31.5W 9.1N 34.4W 9.4N 37.4W 9.7N 40.1W
LBAR 8.8N 31.5W 9.4N 35.2W 10.3N 38.9W 11.1N 42.4W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060730 0000 060731 0000 060801 0000 060802 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.1N 44.3W 11.1N 48.8W 12.8N 52.6W 14.9N 55.2W
BAMM 10.7N 43.0W 11.9N 47.0W 13.3N 50.3W 14.5N 53.0W
A98E 10.0N 42.6W 11.3N 47.0W 12.9N 51.2W 15.8N 55.3W
LBAR 12.2N 45.5W 14.3N 49.8W 17.1N 51.6W 22.6N 52.5W
SHIP 40KTS 48KTS 48KTS 50KTS
DSHP 40KTS 48KTS 48KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.8N LONCUR = 31.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 28.7W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 8.6N LONM24 = 25.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#83 Postby **Windtalker1** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:02 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:If there was too much dry air then there wouldn't be an Invest (correct me if I'm wrong).

I don't think your wrong...this invest is moving into more favorable area to strengthen.

#84 Postby **rjgator** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:02 pm

Convection is slipping below the SAL and this wave seems to have more moisture surrounding it than the past few.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.html

Bluefrog · #85 Postby **Bluefrog** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:03 pm

noooooooooooooooooooo ..... it's too soon :eek:

HurricaneHunter914 · #86 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:03 pm

OK thanks.

This needs 10 more kts to become a TD.

#87 Postby **SkeetoBite** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:04 pm

#88 Postby **Windtalker1** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:04 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:OK thanks. This needs 10 more kts to become a TD.

BINGO...by 11am tomorrow

NYCHurr06 · #89 Postby **NYCHurr06** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:05 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:
NYCHurr06 wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:I have a question.. what is an invest exactly? I never heard of them until now.

An invest is an investigation area...it is lower than a depression and is just an area to keep an eye on for a possible depression to form.

Oh okay. Thanks. I thought so.

Who decides when to do an invest?

I believe the Navy does, actually...not sure, though.

HurricaneHunter914 · #90 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:05 pm

GO 99L! If only 98L was in the same area.

#91 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:06 pm

NYCHurr06 wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:
NYCHurr06 wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:I have a question.. what is an invest exactly? I never heard of them until now.

An invest is an investigation area...it is lower than a depression and is just an area to keep an eye on for a possible depression to form.

Oh okay. Thanks. I thought so.

Who decides when to do an invest?

I believe the Navy does, actually...not sure, though.

The Navy in coordination with NHC.

HurricaneHunter914 · #92 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:09 pm

If the NHC mentions any possible development with a wave that wave usually becomes an Invest.

ronjon · #93 Postby **ronjon** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:12 pm

I mean this thing looks healthy... it looks like a TD right now and its staying over warm water since its below 10 deg LAT.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

#94 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:16 pm

rjgator wrote:Convection is slipping below the SAL and this wave seems to have more moisture surrounding it than the past few.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.html

Precisely. Look how this thing is going to take a path below the SAL. Remember what I said way back earlier in this thread - as long as it takes a W or WSW path not much higher in lattitude than 10N we would get something out of this.

Here is the latest SAL map:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

#95 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:20 pm

This REALLY has the potential to set off some fireworks...I give it a 60% chance of development, and a decent shot at becoming a hurricane - possibly a major one. (However, that would be days away and another system could come between them)

shaggy · #96 Postby **shaggy** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:21 pm

seems like most of the models want to bring it up to around 13N or so before it gets to the islands so if i were them i would be watching this thing very closely as it looks promising.Hate to see the CV season come into effect now it was nice last year on the east coast not having to watch and wait to see what the long trackers would do!

#97 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:22 pm

ncdowneast wrote:seems like most of the models want to bring it up to around 13N or so before it gets to the islands so if i were them i would be watching this thing very closely as it looks promising.Hate to see the CV season come into effect now it was nice last year on the east coast not having to watch and wait to see what the long trackers would do!

I'm thinking this could very well become a dangerous hurricane down the road...

#98 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:seems like most of the models want to bring it up to around 13N or so before it gets to the islands so if i were them i would be watching this thing very closely as it looks promising.Hate to see the CV season come into effect now it was nice last year on the east coast not having to watch and wait to see what the long trackers would do!

I'm thinking this could very well become a dangerous hurricane down the road...

well I wouldn't say that yet - there is some SAL it needs to go through and the UL winds are not very favorable just yet but they aren't that bad also - and how will the TUTT get this thing?

#99 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:24 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:You know whats weird? So far this year is kinda like 2004 but instead Alberto is like Bonnie hitting the big bend and Beryl is like Alex scraping the U.S Coast. Lets hope this potential "Chris" won't be a Charley.

If that situation happens, this would become Debby...Chris would be a quick-developer in between...

Extremeweatherguy · #100 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:27 pm

I can't wait until the GFS, GFDL and NAM are added to the model list. They usually have a better handle on these weaker systems.

99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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