Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[MiamiensisWx]

I'll go even further

This wave may have much more potential than TD 4. TD 4 may be blocking the SAL for the leading wave

Sorry, but I disagree somewhat, especially in the short to middle term. While mid-level SAL is not quite as much of an issue for this wave as for the depression further east, there is still rather considerable mid-level drier air surrounding this wave, inhibiting quicker convective formation and consolidation somewhat; also, middle to upper-level shear has been rather inhibitive for this wave, especially since the wave is in it's early stages and is rather small in overall circulation at the middle levels and the structure is rather shallow, and this shear has increased a bit recently due partly due to interaction with a mid-level trough.

[benny]

I'll go even further

This wave may have much more potential than TD 4. TD 4 may be blocking the SAL for the leading wave

TD is a long ways east of there. Looking pretty dry well east of the wave too.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

TD is gonna have to start "blocking" soon.

[jasons2k]

Of all three systems we're looking at, I'm the most concerned about this one. It looks like it's in a pretty healthy environment.

[Noah]

links please to the wave we are watching here... Thanks

[ConvergenceZone]

Links to Floater on this wave??

[GeneratorPower]

I was saying this yesterdya at HRD, but did not post publicly until I could see more signs of development, which we are seeing today

That's an "I told you so" that you never told us about.

[rockyman]

Cyclone Genesis Probability Map (area is in yellow):

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... xyrfpr.gif

[Johnny]

Well Derek, I've got to ask...any potential for this head toward s the g.o.m. in the future? I know it's too early for a forecast...just wanted to see what your thoughts were.

[ConvergenceZone]

Links to Floater on this wave??

bump

[Stratosphere747]

There is no floater right now...

[Wthrman13]

Who needs floaters when you have the NASA GHCC loops?

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES

I pretty much never look at the SSD loops unless I want to use the overlays. The GHCC images, when zoomed in with 100% quality, are both better image quality and better temporal resolution than just about anything else available on the web.

[ConvergenceZone]

There is no floater right now...

k thanx. any infared sat loops anywhere on this?

[SouthFloridawx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

OMIT images 173, 174 and 180.


This should soon be our next invest.

[ConvergenceZone]

Who needs floaters when you have the NASA GHCC loops?

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES

I pretty much never look at the SSD loops unless I want to use the overlays. The GHCC images, when zoomed in with 100% quality, are both better image quality and better temporal resolution than just about anything else available on the web.

k Kthanx...I just like the close up pictures.

[Stratosphere747]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

Post the static link South..

That loop will wear down the dial-up users...

[Stratosphere747]

There is no floater right now...

k thanx. any infared sat loops anywhere on this?

My fault..

Thought you were asking about the NHC floater. There are better links mentioned above than the NHC's.

[deltadog03]

this is MUCH more likely to develop....***unless TD4 stays on a westerly course its not gonna make it IMO

['CaneFreak]

12Z GFS at 90 hours takes a low pressure area into the Carribean....we'll see what happens.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

This may come together more quicly than we think... I am thinking they are probably tracking this internally until persistent convection and continued low level swirl.

[Lowpressure]

Does it seem like the parameters for invests just changed this week? Two weeks ago this would be an invest for three days running now.