Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye:

Any risk for PR?

It will pass south of Puerto Rico at a safe distance.But anyway I would not look the other way as surprises happen in the tropics many times.Look at David as it moved WNW,then it turned north crossing Hispanola.I prefer it to pass our longitud (66-67w) and then we can relax.

[Weathermaster]

Weathermaster wrote:
Cycloneye:

Any risk for PR? TWO says is moving WNW..


I don't see any... it should be well south of there, similar to Emily or Ivan.

thanks!

[Air Force Met]

AFM, All I'm saying is talk of landfall zone, major hurricane and the "big one" is way, way premature...

my untrained amateur opinions says 30-40% development to a named storm...I might be wrong.

I agree it is premature.

As far as development...I'd give it about a 80% chance of being a TD and a 75% chance of at least a TS...since I think the gradient and flow is so strong it will be very close to being a TS when it is upgraded due to strong winds on the north side.

[dwg71]

I saw it said here that someone loses credibility when they disagree with the Pro Mets, or something to that effect. Not so. They lose credibility when they are proven wrong.

....and here they are proven wrong. Especially when the TWO mentions the possiblity of a TS in the next 1 - 2 days also.

Nobody saying its not possible in the next couple of days, some are saying its not imminent and lets hold off on calling landfall zones, and such and lets see what it looks like 24 hours from now.

[SouthFloridawx]

Suprised no one caught this from the TWO...

AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[Blown Away]

The models seem to starting turning more NW at 75, does that indicate a turn into central Cuba then towards Florida

[CrazyC83]

My estimated chance:

Tropical Depression - 90%
Tropical Storm - 80%
Hurricane - 70%
Category 2 Hurricane - 60%
Category 3 Hurricane - 55%
Category 4 Hurricane - 35%
Category 5 Hurricane - 25%

[Weathermaster]

It will pass south of Puerto Rico at a safe distance.But anyway I would not look the other way as surprises happen in the tropics many times.Look at David as it moved WNW,then it turned north crossing Hispanola.I prefer it to pass our longitud (66-67w) and then we can relax

That is true, remember also Hortense, she stalls and then went north through us

[johngaltfla]

The models seem to starting turning more NW at 75, does that indicate a turn into central Cuba then towards Florida

Shhhhh.

I swore off plywood this year!!!!!

[Air Force Met]

Suprised no one caught this from the TWO...

AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

I think we all caught it...Brent even mentioned the very strong wording.

The NHC seems to agree that development is likely.

[ConvergenceZone]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
610 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INTERESTS IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

WHOOP! THERE IT IS!
Tomorrow looks like the day if organization continues.

[Brent]

My estimated chance:

Tropical Depression - 90%
Tropical Storm - 80%
Hurricane - 70%
Category 2 Hurricane - 60%
Category 3 Hurricane - 55%
Category 4 Hurricane - 35%
Category 5 Hurricane - 25%

Oh what the heck...

TD 95%
Tropical Storm 85%
Hurricane 70%
Category 2 Hurricane 60%
Category 3 Hurricane 45%
Category 4 Hurricane 25%
Category 5 Hurricane Less than 5%(they are just so rare)

[Beam]

My estimated chance:

Tropical Depression - 90%
Tropical Storm - 80%
Hurricane - 70%
Category 2 Hurricane - 60%
Category 3 Hurricane - 55%
Category 4 Hurricane - 35%
Category 5 Hurricane - 25%

I can see a hurricane in the future, but I think your odds are a little high for a major there. This thing still has a long way to go. Forecasting a 5 or 10% chance at major status is far more reasonable at this time.

[Meso]

Heh.. that's a really high % for a Cat 5... This wave is interesting though,seems like it will bring back some attention to the boards for those who lost interest (not many but some).. Just hope I get back to track it,since I`m going away for a few days on thursday...

[MWatkins]

Folks this is a open wave oriented NE to SW. Additionally, if you look at the loops from this morning while convention has increased the cyclonic rotation has dimished. All cloud elements are moving toward a wnw and development if any is going to have to wait for another 24 hours or so.

I do not see this system becoming a depression anytime soon, and maybe not at all.

I mostly agree...and if I remember correctly Ernie is really good with this visual satellite type of thing.

I agree because the NE to SW tilt is pretty evident. It actually stands out pretty well in the satellite imagery...especially in visible.

However...the banding on the northern and eastern sides is curving...and convection is increasing in the envelope.

Yes this is probably still open but it may not take 24 hours to close up.

It may not take 12.

MW

[bvigal]

Descending pass scaterometer should be out in next hour or two. If it shows the circulation down to surface, it could get classified. Unless something drastically changes with the building convection and pattern, but it still continues to look better.

As to eventual track, yes that is premature. Just to say it will enter the GOM is premature, much less trying to pinpoint where. That all depends upon it's forward speed. With that much ocean to cross, speed could make a difference of 3-4 days. Steering conditions change!

Were I in Jamaica, Cayman, Haiti, DR, Cuba, would be watching this closely.

[Air Force Met]

I mostly agree...and if I remember correctly Ernie is really good with this visual satellite type of thing.

I agree because the NE to SW tilt is pretty evident. It actually stands out pretty well in the satellite imagery...especially in visible.

However...the banding on the northern and eastern sides is curving...and convection is increasing in the envelope.

Yes this is probably still open but it may not take 24 hours to close up.

It may not take 12.

MW

I agree with that assessment. It is still open. I think the disagreement is that the cyclonic rotation has decreased. That is not the case. It's just that this morning the convection was out ahead of the wave. Now it's over the wave and you can't see the turning as well.

I agree with won't take much to close it off...but it will be harder with it moving at 20 mph...especially since it will likely pick up some speed as it gets into the ECAR.

[stormernie]

Thank you Mike, I know it was going to steer some controversary. But, all I am pointing out that there is not a LLC. And it will take at least 24 hours to form, but I am human and I am probably wrong.

One thing is for sure, it has pick up some northerly component which is not good when and if it develops.

[Derek Ortt]

I dont think the forward motion will be too much of a hinderance in this instance since it should develop rather quickly as conditions are quite favorable

[dwg71]

Just an observation.. we have a named tropical storm in the atlantic and the thread sits untouched for the past hour, but an invest (granted and interesting one) takes priority.

Many claim to just love tracking storms, but I feel human nature tells us we are more in love with tracking storms that may affect CONUS. Otherwise we would have 150 page long threads on every EPAC system out there.

Lets just pray, 97L isn't a storm for the ages, we have had enough of them.